Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite-derived solar radiation for intra-hour and intra-day applications: biases and uncertainties by season and altitude
Published: 2022-12-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate estimates of the surface solar radiation (SSR) are a prerequisite for intra-day forecasts of solar resources and photovoltaic power generation. Intra-day SSR forecasts are of interest to power traders and to operators of solar plants and power grids who seek to optimize their revenues and maintain the grid stability by matching power supply and demand. Our study analyzes systematic [...]
Basin-scale hydrodynamics and physical connectivity in a Great Patagonian Lake
Published: 2022-12-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Patagonian lakes are one of the most unexplored aquatic environments on Earth, and little is known about their thermo-hydrodynamics and current trophic state. Meanwhile, increasing urbanization and industrialization in their catchments compromise their health. Here, we investigate Lake Llanquihue, one of the Earth's great freshwater bodies in Northern Patagonia, Chile. Still considered a pristine [...]
Prescribed burns as a tool to mitigate future wildfire smoke exposure: Lessons for states and rural environmental justice communities
Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Smoke from wildfires presents one of the greatest threats to air quality, public health, and ecosystems in the United States, especially in the West. Here we quantify the efficacy of prescribed burning as an intervention for mitigating smoke exposure downwind of wildfires across the West during the 2018 and 2020 fire seasons. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we [...]
Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models
Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global water models are increasingly used to understand the past, present, and future water cycle, but disagreements between models make model-based inferences uncertain. While there is empirical evidence of a number of large-scale hydrologic relationships, these relationships are rarely used for model evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models using functional relationships that capture [...]
Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]
Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.1T and $5.7T in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 [...]
Constraining flow and sediment transport intermittency in the geological past
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantitative investigations of ancient rivers usually provide insights into either instantaneous or mean flow conditions. There is a critical gap between these timescales of investigation which reflects the intermittency of flow and sediment transport, and closing this gap is crucial to fully explore the dynamics and evolution of ancient fluvial landscapes. Here, we combine fluvial stratigraphic [...]
SWAT model-based quantification of the impact of land use change on sediment yield in the Fincha watershed, Ethiopia
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In recent years, Ethiopia is facing problems due to soil erosion, mainly because of the conversion of natural vegetation cover into cultivated land. Soil erosion is also affecting dam reservoirs, which are threatened by an increase in sediment yield entering the lake. The present study focuses on the Ethiopian Fincha watershed and takes advantage of the potentiality of SWAT, to investigate how [...]
Standardised indices to monitor energy droughts
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
To mitigate the effects of climate change, energy systems are becoming increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources. Since these energy sources are typically dependent on the prevailing weather, renewable energy systems are susceptible to shortages during certain weather conditions. As renewable sources become larger contributors to the energy mix, the risks associated with these shortages, [...]
The Paleozoic Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt: its geodynamic and tectonic interpretation based on Paleogeographic reconstructions
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the southwestern margin of the North Patagonian Massif there is a NW26 SE belt of igneous and metamorphic rocks defining a limit between the North Patagonian Massif and southern Patagonia (including the Deseado Massif), named the Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt (CPIMB). The objective of this paper is to better understand the geodynamic and tectonic processes that generated its [...]
Comment on "Estimates on the Frequency of Volcanic Eruptions on Venus" by Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022)
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Other Planetary Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences
Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022) estimated the frequency of volcanic eruptions on Venus by scaling the eruption frequency obtained from a database containing Earth data. In reproducing their study, I found that the estimated number of new and ongoing volcanic eruptions on Venus in a given year is approximately 42, instead of the previously reported 120 eruptions. This updated estimate of Byrne & [...]
Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The technique is termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT). The generated perturbations are independent between different model [...]
The small-amplitude dynamics of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Cloud-permitting simulations have shown that tropical cyclones can form spontaneously in a quiescent environment with uniform sea surface temperature. While the moisture-radiation instability is known as the main mechanism for early-stage growth, two key questions remain unresolved: First, how does the noisy cumulus cloud field organize into a mesoscale perturbation? Second, what determines the [...]
Call for collaboration: Benchmark datasets for landslide susceptibility zonation
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide susceptibility, the spatial likelihood of occurrence of landslides in a specific geographical area, is the subject of countless scientific publications. Different authors use heterogeneous data, and apply many different methods, mostly falling under the definition of statistical and/or machine learning approaches, with the common feature of considering many input variables and a single [...]
The effect of uncertainties in creep activation energies on modeling ice flow and deformation
Published: 2022-11-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ice deformation is commonly represented by a power-law constitutive relation, Glen's Flow Law, where deformation (strain) rate equals stress raised to the power n and multiplied by a flow-rate parameter A. Glen's Law represents bulk ice rheology as a single power-law even though multiple mechanisms, each with their own power-law relation and parametric values, act together during viscous [...]