Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment
Published: 2020-12-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present rigorous tests of global short-term earthquake forecasts using Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence models with two different time kernels (one with exponentially tapered Omori kernel (ETOK) and another with linear magnitude dependent Omori kernel (MDOK)). The tests are conducted with three different magnitude cutoffs for the auxiliary catalog (M3, M4 or M5) and two different magnitude [...]
Evidence-based conservation in a changing world: lessons from waterbird individual-based models
Published: 2020-12-16
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Drivers of environmental change are causing novel combinations of pressures on ecological systems. Prediction in ecology often uses understanding of past conditions to make predictions to the future, but such an approach can breakdown when future conditions have not previously been encountered. Individual-based models (IBMs) consider ecological systems as arising from the adaptive behaviour and [...]
Anatomy of Strike Slip Fault Tsunami-genesis
Published: 2020-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Tsunami generation from earthquake induced seafloor deformations has long been recognized as a major hazard to coastal areas. Strike-slip faulting has generally been believed as insufficient for triggering large tsunamis, except through the generation of submarine landslides. Herein, we demonstrate that ground motions due to strike-slip earthquakes can contribute to the emergence of large [...]
Inference of thermodynamic state in the asthenosphere from anelastic properties, with applications to North American upper mantle
Published: 2020-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Inference of thermodynamic state and full-spectrum mechanical behavior of the lithosphere and asthenosphere is a central problem in geophysics, implicating our understanding of the convection patterns, transient responses and chemical composition of the planet. Anelasticity is responsible for significant relaxation of stress associated with seismic wave propagation in the asthenosphere, while [...]
Atmospheric CO2 estimates for the last 17 million years based on foraminiferal δ11B at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 806 and 807 in the Western Equatorial Pacific
Published: 2020-12-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Constraints on the evolution of atmospheric CO2 levels throughout Earth’s history are foundational to our understanding of past variations in climate. Despite considerable effort, estimates of past CO2 levels do not always converge. Here we reconstruct atmospheric CO2 values across major climate transitions over the past 17 million years using the boron isotopic composition (δ11B) of planktic [...]
Saving the world from your couch: The heterogeneous medium-run benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns on air pollution
Published: 2020-12-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
In Spring 2020, COVID-19 led to an unprecedented halt in public and economic life across the globe. In an otherwise tragic time, this provides a unique natural experiment to investigate the environmental impact of such a (temporary) ``de-globalization". Here, we estimate the medium-run impact of a battery of COVID-19 related lockdown measures on air quality across 162 countries, going beyond the [...]
Morphological and Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Quaternary Monogenetic Vents in the Central Anatolian Volcanic Province (Turkey): Implications for the Volcano-Tectonic Evolution
Published: 2020-12-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The interaction and competition between magmatic and tectonic processes mostly control the spatial distribution and morphology of monogenetic volcanoes. The Central Anatolian Volcanic Province (CAVP) situated in a strike-slip environment provides a remarkable opportunity to understand this relation. In this study, we defined six monogenetic volcanic fields within the CAVP and analyzed a total [...]
The precession constant and its long-term variation
Published: 2020-12-08
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences
The dynamical flattening of the Earth, H, related to the precession constant, is a fundamental astro-geodetic parameter that appears in studies of the Earth's rotation and orbital evolution. We present numerical predictions and observations of the variation in H over time scales ranging from tens of millions of years to decades. The geophysical processes controlling this variation include [...]
VESIcal Part I: An open-source thermodynamic model engine for mixed volatile (H2O-CO2) solubility in silicate melts
Published: 2020-12-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Sciences, Volcanology
Thermodynamics has been fundamental to the interpretation of geologic data and modeling of geologic systems for decades. However, more recent advancements in computational capabilities and a marked increase in researchers’ accessibility to computing tools has outpaced the functionality and extensibility of currently available modeling tools. Here we present VESIcal (Volatile Equilibria and [...]
International disparities in open access practices in the Earth Sciences
Published: 2020-12-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Background. Open Access (OA) describes the free, unrestricted access to and re-use of research articles. Recently, a new wave of interest, debate, and practice surrounding OA publishing has emerged. Objectives. The paper presented here focuses on international disparities in OA publication practices of the Earth Science community. We aim to provide an overview of actual publication practices and [...]
An Active Learning Pipeline to Detect Hurricane Washover in Post-Storm Aerial Images
Published: 2020-12-02
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present an active learning pipeline to identify hurricane impacts on coastal landscapes. Previously unlabeled post-storm images are used in a three component workflow — first an online interface is used to crowd-source labels for imagery; second, a convolutional neural network is trained using the labeled images; third, model predictions are displayed on an interactive map. Both the labeler [...]
Stalagmite carbon isotopes suggest deglacial increase in soil respiration in Western Europe driven by temperature change
Published: 2020-12-02
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The temperate region of Western Europe underwent dramatic climatic and environmental change during the last deglaciation. Much of what is known about the terrestrial ecosystem response to deglacial warming stems from pollen preserved in sediment sequences, providing information on vegetation composition. Other ecosystem processes, such as soil respiration, remain poorly constrained over past [...]
Listening for the Landing: Detecting Perseverance’s landing with InSight
Published: 2020-12-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence of NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance rover will act as a seismic source of known temporal and spatial localization. We evaluate whether the signals produced by this event will be detectable at the InSight lander (3452~km away), comparing expected signal amplitudes to noise levels at the instrument. Modeling is undertaken to predict the propagation of the [...]
Carbonate clumped isotope analysis (Δ47) of 21 carbonate standards determined via gas source isotope ratio mass spectrometry on four instrumental configurations using carbonate-based standardization and multi-year datasets
Published: 2020-11-28
Subjects: Chemistry, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rationale: Clumped isotope geochemistry examines the pairing or clumping of rare, heavy isotopes in molecules and provides information about the thermodynamic and kinetic controls on their formation. Since clumped isotope measurements of carbonate minerals were first published 15 years ago, interlaboratory offsets in calibrations have been observed, and laboratory and community practices for [...]
High-resolution downscaled CMIP5 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over Europe coherent with ERA5-Land reanalyses for climate change impact assessments
Published: 2020-11-26
Subjects: Engineering, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP5 experiment using the ERA5-Land reanalyses from the Copernicus Climate Change service. The dataset is over Europe, has a spatial resolution of 0.10° x 0.10°, comprises 21 climate models and includes 5 surface daily variables: air temperature (mean, minimum, and maximum), [...]