Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence
Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]
Exposure and vulnerability estimation for modelling flood losses to commercial assets in Europe
Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Commercial assets comprise buildings, machinery and equipment, which are susceptible to floods. Existing damage models and exposure estimation methods for this sector have limited transferability between flood events. In this study we introduce two methodologies aiming at broader applicability: (1) disaggregation of economic statistics to obtain detailed building-level estimates of replacement [...]
Ekman-Inertial Instability
Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We report on an instability, arising in sub-surface, laterally-sheared flows in rotation. When the lateral shear of a horizontal flow in geostrophic balance is of opposite sign as the Coriolis parameter, and exceeds it in magnitude, embedded perturbations are subjected to inertial instability, albeit modified by viscosity. When the perturbation arises from the surface of the fluid, the initial [...]
Post-processing the National Water Model with Long Short- Term Memory Networks for Streamflow Predictions and Model Diagnostics
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We build three Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) daily streamflow prediction models (deep learning networks) for 531 basins across the contiguous United States (CONUS), and compare their performance: (1) a LSTM post-processor trained on the U.S. National Water Model (NWM) outputs (LSTM_PP) as a target variable, (2) a LSTM post-processor trained on the NWM outputs and using atmospheric forcings [...]
Seismic swarm preceding the 2017 Mount Agung eruption in Bali (Indonesia) enhanced by the matched filter approach
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Intense swarm seismicity took place before the 2017 Mount Agung eruption in Bali (Indonesia). However, the earthquake sequences were not well documented. In addition, there was a substantial delay between the peak of the seismic activity (late September) and the onset of the impending eruption (late November). We applied waveform-based hypocenter relocation and matched filter technique (MFT) to [...]
“Empirical pre-whitening” spectral analysis detects periodic but inconsistent signals in abyssal hill morphology at the southern East Pacific Rise
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The existence, or not, of periodicities in abyssal hill morphology has been vigorously debated in recent publications, and some have hypothesized that such periodicities are evidence of the impact of Milankovitch cycle-caused sea level fluctuations on the volcanic construction process at mid-ocean ridges. Periodicities are detected by the presence of spectral peaks that rise significantly above [...]
An agent-based model for estimating emissions reduction equivalence among leak detection and repair programs
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Alternative leak detection and repair (alt-LDAR) programs are being introduced by regulators in North America to provide flexibility in how oil and gas producers manage their fugitive methane emissions. However, emissions reduction equivalence must be established between a proposed program and a regulatory standard. We present LDAR-Sim, an open-source, agent-based numerical model for estimating [...]
Machine learning and fault rupture: a review
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Theory and Algorithms
Geophysics has historically been a data-driven field, however in recent years the exponential increase of available data has lead to increased adoption of machine learning techniques and algorithm for analysis, detection and forecasting applications to faulting. This work reviews recent advances in the application of machine learning in the study of fault rupture ranging from the laboratory to [...]
Storm surge, not wind, caused mangrove dieback in southwest Florida following Hurricane Irma
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mangroves buffer inland ecosystems from hurricane winds and storm surge. However, their ability to withstand harsh cyclone conditions depends on plant traits and geomorphology. Using airborne lidar and satellite imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma, we estimated that 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage, with largest impacts in tall forests (>10 m). [...]
Influences on Discharge Partitioning on a Large River Delta: Case Study of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya Diversion, 1926–1950
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The modern Mississippi River (M.R.) Delta is plumbed by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, setting water and sediment dispersal pathways for Earth’s fifth-largest river system. The Atchafalaya River’s (A.R.) partial annexation of discharge from the M.R., particularly between 1926 and 1950, prompted warnings of a rapid river avulsion and the construction of the Old River Control Structure to [...]
Tidal Modulation of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting
Published: 2020-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tides influence basal melting of individual Antarctic ice shelves, but their net impact on Antarctic-wide ice-ocean interaction has yet to be constrained. Here we quantify the impact of tides on ice shelf melting and the continental shelf seas by means of a 4 km resolution circum-Antarctic ocean model. Activating tides in the model increases the total basal mass loss by 57 Gt/yr (4 %), while [...]
Adjoint-based sensitivity analysis for a numerical storm surge model
Published: 2020-06-29
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical storm surge models are essential to forecasting coastal flood hazard and informing the design of coastal defences. However, such models rely on a variety of inputs, many of which will carry uncertainty, and an awareness and understanding of the sensitivity of the model outputs with respect to those uncertain inputs is necessary when interpreting model results. Here, we use an [...]
A comparison of Bayesian inference and gradient-based approaches for friction parameter estimation
Published: 2020-06-29
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical tidal models are essential to the study of a variety of coastal ocean processes, but typically rely on uncertain inputs, including a bottom friction parameter which can in principle be spatially varying. Here we employ an adjoint-capable numerical ocean model, Thetis, and apply it to the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, using a spatially varying Manning coefficient within the bottom [...]
Dislocation interactions in olivine control postseismic creep of the upper mantle
Published: 2020-06-29
Subjects: Condensed Matter Physics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Tectonics and Structure
Changes in stress applied to mantle rocks, such as those imposed by earthquakes, induce a period of evolution in viscosity and microstructure. This transient creep is often modelled based on stress transfer among slip systems due to grain interactions. However, recent experiments have demonstrated that the intragranular accumulation of stresses among dislocations is the dominant cause of strain [...]
Seismological Expression of the Iron Spin Crossover in Ferropericlase in the Earth’s Lower Mantle
Published: 2020-06-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geophysics and Seismology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Quantum Physics, Tectonics and Structure
The two most abundant minerals on Earth which together make up over 90% of the Earth’s lower mantle are (Mg,Fe)O-ferropericlase (Fp) and (Mg,Fe)SiO3-bridgmanite (Bm). Iron in Fp undergoes a high-spin to low-spin (HS-LS) crossover that influences density, viscosity, elasticity, thermal conductivity, and elemental partitioning, however, the predicted effects of this transition are not apparent in [...]