Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Applied Mathematics
Dynamics of Eddying Abyssal Mixing Layers over Sloping Rough Topography
Published: 2022-01-08
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The abyssal overturning circulation is thought to be primarily driven by small-scale turbulent mixing. Diagnosed water-mass transformations are dominated by rough topography “hotspots,” where the bottom enhancement of mixing causes the diffusive buoyancy flux to diverge, driving widespread downwelling in the interior—only to be overwhelmed by an even stronger upwelling in a thin bottom boundary [...]
A review of model-based scenario analysis of poverty for informing sustainability
Published: 2021-11-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Dynamic Systems, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Ending poverty in all its forms everywhere is the first goal being targeted by the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Poverty eradication is a long-term process that faces the challenges of many uncertainties and complex interactions with other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In order to better understand poverty and contribute to addressing poverty in a sustainable [...]
Calibration, inversion and sensitivity analysis for hydro-morphodynamic models
Published: 2021-08-03
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Fluid Dynamics, Geomorphology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Partial Differential Equations, Programming Languages and Compilers
The development of reliable, sophisticated hydro-morphodynamic models is essential for protecting the coastal environment against hazards such as flooding and erosion. There exists a high degree of uncertainty associated with the application of these models, in part due to incomplete knowledge of various physical, empirical and numerical closure related parameters in both the hydrodynamic and [...]
Modeling P waves in seismic noise correlations: Advancing fault monitoring using train traffic sources
Published: 2021-06-20
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physics
The theory of Green's function retrieval essentially requires homogeneously distributed noise sources. Even though these conditions are not fulfilled in nature, low-frequency (<1 Hz) surface waves generated by ocean-crust interactions have been used successfully to image the crust with unprecedented spatial resolution. In contrast to low-frequency surface waves, high-frequency (>1 Hz) body waves [...]
Detection of Interannual Ensemble Forecast Signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using Atmospheric Circulation Regimes
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To study the forced variability of atmospheric circulation regimes, the use of model ensembles is often necessary for identifying statistically significant signals as the observed data constitute a small sample and are thus strongly affected by the noise associated with sampling uncertainty. However, the regime representation is itself affected by noise within the atmosphere, which can make it [...]
A damage model for the frictional shear failure of brittle materials in compression
Published: 2021-05-13
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Materials Science and Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Damage models have been successfully employed for many decades in the modelling of tensile failure, where the crack surfaces separate as a crack grows. The advantage of this approach is that crack trajectories can be computed simply and efficiently on a fixed finite element mesh without explicit tracking. The development of damage models for shear failure in compression, where the crack faces [...]
Utilizing Random Forest Machine Learning Models to Determine Water Table Flood Levels through Volunteered Geospatial Information
Published: 2021-04-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Many people use smartphone cameras to record their living environments through captured images, and share aspects of their daily lives on social networks, such as Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. These platforms provide volunteered geographic information (VGI), which enables the public to know where and when events occur. At the same time, image-based VGI can also indicate environmental changes [...]
Dilatancy and compaction of a rate-and-state fault in a poroelastic medium: Linearized stability analysis
Published: 2021-04-06
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Faults in the crust at seismogenic depths are embedded in a fluid-saturated, elastic, porous material. Slip on such faults may induce transient pore pressure changes through dilatancy or compaction of the gouge or host rock. However, the poroelastic nature of the crust and the full coupling of inelastic gouge processes and the host rock have been largely neglected in previous analyses. Here, we [...]
An idealized 1.5-layer isentropic model with convection and precipitation for satellite data assimilation research. Part II: model derivation
Published: 2021-01-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In this part II paper we present the analytical derivation of the isentropic 1.5-layer shallow water model described and used in part I of this study. The mathematical derivation presented here is based on a combined asymptotic and slaved Hamiltonian analysis. The scaling assumptions throughout the paper are supported by real observations based on radiosonde data. Eventually, a fully consistent [...]
An idealized 1.5-layer isentropic model with convection and precipitationfor satellite data assimilation research. Part I: model dynamics
Published: 2021-01-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
An isentropic 1.5-layer model based on modified shallow water equations is presented, including terms mimicking convection and precipitation. This model is an updated version of the isopycnal single-layer modified shallow water model presented in Kent et al. (2017). The clearer link between fluid temperature and model variables together with a double-layer structure make this revised, isentropic [...]
Assessing erosion and flood risk in the coastal zone through the application of the multilevel Monte Carlo method
Published: 2021-01-08
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
The risk from erosion and flooding in the coastal zone has the potential to increase in a changing climate. The development and use of coupled hydro-morphodynamic models is therefore becoming an ever higher priority. However, their use as decision support tools suffers from the high degree of uncertainty associated with them, due to incomplete knowledge as well as natural variability in the [...]
Determination of vulnerability areas from the simulated deposition of atmospheric pollutants using LOTOS-EUROS chemical transport model in North-West South-America
Published: 2021-01-07
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences
This work presents the implementation of the LOTOS-EUROS regional atmospheric Chemical Transport Model (CTM) on Northwestern South America. The impact of land use and orography update in the model was analyzed to identify potential vulnerable natural areas by quantifying atmospheric deposition pollutants. CTMs allow simulating the physical dynamics of trace gasses and aerosols, including [...]
Urban Air Quality Modeling Using Low-Cost Sensor Network and Data Assimilation in the Aburra Valley, Colombia
Published: 2020-10-30
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring
The use of low air quality networks has been increasing in recent years to study urban pollution dynamics. Here we show the evaluation of the operational Aburra Valley's low-cost network against the official monitoring network. The results show that the PM2.5 low-cost measurements are very close to those observed by the official network. Additionally, the low-cost allows a higher spatial [...]
Multi-scale hydro-morphodynamic modelling using mesh movement methods.
Published: 2020-10-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Partial Differential Equations
Hydro-morphodynamic models are an important tool that can be used in the protection of coastal zones. They can be required to resolve spatial scales ranging from sub-metre to hundreds of kilometres and are computationally expensive. In this work, we apply mesh movement methods to a depth-averaged hydro-morphodynamic model for the first time, in order to tackle both these issues. Mesh movement [...]
Dynamical analysis of a reduced model for the North Atlantic Oscillation
Published: 2020-10-21
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed through a data-driven model obtained from atmospheric reanalysis data. We apply a regularized vector autoregressive clustering technique to identify recurrent and persistent states of atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector (110W-0E, 20N-90N). In order to analyze the dynamics associated with the resulting [...]