Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Meteorology
Assessing Climate and Watershed Controls on Rain-on-Snow Runoff Using XGBoost-SHAP Explainable AI (XAI)
Published: 2025-06-27
Subjects: Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Water Resource Management
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events significantly impact hydrological processes in snowy regions, yet their seasonal drivers remain poorly understood, particularly in low-elevation and low-gradient catchments. This study uses an XGBoost-SHAP explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model to analyze meteorological and watershed controls on ROS runoff in the Great Lakes Basin. We used daily discharge, [...]
Food security beyond borders: how crop imports affect drought risk of conflict-affected countries
Published: 2025-06-25
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability
Drought events can disrupt food security and increase the risk of violent conflicts. In an interconnected global food system, countries rely on both local food production and imports to meet domestic demand. When assessing the impact of drought risk on national food security, however, imported crops are often overlooked. This study incorporates international crop trade information to understand [...]
Turbulent Snow Transport and Accumulation: New Reduced-Order Models and Diagnostics
Published: 2025-05-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Fluid Dynamics, Glaciology, Hydrology, Meteorology, Non-linear Dynamics
Understanding and modeling snow particle dynamics in the atmosphere remains a significant challenge for atmospheric scientists, hydrologists, and glaciologists. Temporally and spatially varying rates of snow transport, deposition, and erosion are driven by atmospheric turbulence and further complicated by inertial particle dynamics. Even with perfectly resolved wind fields, accurately predicting [...]
Heatwave Characteristics in Different Ecosystems across Türkiye: Historical and Future Insights from CMIP6 Simulations
Published: 2025-04-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Heatwaves pose significant threats to diverse sectors, including agriculture and forestry. This extreme weather event is characterized by prolonged periods of exceptionally high air temperatures and has caused substantial economic damage and affecting millions. During heatwave events, agricultural and forest lands are affected by intensified thermal stress and water scarcity, impacting plant [...]
The effects of rain on a Ka-band swath altimeter: lessons learned from the SWOT mission
Published: 2025-04-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography
The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission offers unprecedented Ka-band swath altimetry measurements via its KaRIn instrument, but remains highly sensitive to signal attenuation by precipitation. This study investigates the radiometric behavior of KaRIn under rain conditions, focusing on the characterization, correction, and physical interpretation of the normalized radar backscatter [...]
Large reductions in United States heat extremes found in overshoot simulations with SPEAR
Published: 2025-03-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident in the observational record, and these increases are expected to be further amplified in future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally to emissions reductions and declines of greenhouse gases later in the 21st century, such as through the [...]
Beyond Single Hazard Framework: Multi-Hazard Worst Case Scenarios from Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Published: 2025-02-21
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Risk Analysis
Ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool for supporting informed decision-making in managing multi-hazard risks associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although TC ensemble forecasts are widely used in operational numerical weather prediction systems, their potential for disaster prediction and management has not been fully exploited. Here we propose a novel, efficient, and practical method to [...]
Recent rise of water levels of Lake Nakuru, Kenya: Unraveling the Changing Precipitation Regime and its Climatic Drivers
Published: 2025-01-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Kenyan Rift Valley has experienced an abrupt and significant rise in its lake levels since 2010, followed by a more rapid rise since 2020. This paper examines the dynamic changes in precipitation patterns and their climatic drivers in the Kenyan Rift Valley region from 1981 to 2021, focusing on Lake Nakuru. Notably, in 2010, a pivotal change point in precipitation aligns with the rising water [...]
Site Planning for a Network of Government-operated Weather Stations in the Dominican Republic Using Zonal Statistics from Geospatial Sources, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, and Neighborhood Analysis
Published: 2024-12-30
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Many weather station networks lack sufficient representativeness, and their station density is often inadequate to capture spatial and climatic variability effectively. Optimal site selection is therefore essential to enhance spatial coverage and improve data quality. This study proposes a methodology for identifying optimal sites for a meteorological station network in the Dominican Republic, [...]
Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.
Published: 2024-09-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments in the Southeast United States Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Many studies have examined future changes in TC precipitation; however, few have considered changes owing to differences in the synoptic environment during landfall. Here, we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United [...]
Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique
Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management
Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]
The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California
Published: 2024-02-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]
Pygoda: a graphical interface to efficiently visualise and explore large sets of geolocated time series
Published: 2023-10-24
Subjects: Categorical Data Analysis, Climate, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Graphics and Human Computer Interfaces, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Statistics and Probability, Spatial Science
Modern-day data sets in geosciences may comprise hundreds or thousands of geolocated time series. Despite all the automated tools and new algorithms now available to process and prepare those data before using them in research projects, it can be useful or even necessary to visualise and investigate them manually. Whether it be for data quality assessment, for the preparation of a training data [...]