Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Meteorology
Relationship between Meteorological Parameters and Temporal Variations of Microseismic Processes at the Belarusian Antarctic Research Station
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography
This study involved an analysis of seismic data acquired in the surrounding area of the Belarusian Antarctic research station “Mount Vechernyaya” in February, 2023 to identify a possible relationship between the seismic noises and local meteorological parameters. Probability density functions of power spectral densities histograms were constructed using the ObsPy framework based on the source [...]
Tail Skill and Ensemble-Configuration Sensitivity in Six-Hour Precipitation Postprocessing
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Meteorology
Statistical postprocessing supports probabilistic precipitation forecasting. Comparing methods requires separating forecast performance from the effects of case selection, ensemble configuration, and scoring convention. We develop a paired diagnostic workflow that separates observation conditioning from aggregation, decomposes model and raw-ensemble responses to member reduction, and examines [...]
Storm-Level Independent Verification of Operational Cloud Seeding: Seven Seasons of Utah's Program, 2016-2025
Published: 2026-10-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Meteorology
Operational winter cloud seeding programs claim precipitation increases of 3-15%, but the evaluations supporting these claims are produced by program operators using target/control methods that cannot separate seeding effects from operator storm selection: storms are seeded precisely when atmospheric conditions favor the target areas. This study performs, to the author's knowledge, the first [...]
Paraglider flight logs as hypsometers: daily temperature profiles of an Alpine valley, its diurnal heating, and the nearly level ceiling of thermals
Published: 2026-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A paraglider flight recorder stores both pressure and GNSS altitude: together they turn routine flight logs into hypsometric measurements of layer-mean virtual temperature. From 86 369 IGC logs of the Valais, Swiss Alps, quality screening retains 13 520 dedicated-instrument flights on 437 days in 2011–2026; 392 days provide at least one profile layer supported by ten flights. At midday, between [...]
Paragliders as probes of the Alpine boundary layer: sink polars from 86 000 flight logs and the flow field of a valley
Published: 2026-10-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Paraglider flight logs are a dense, free and continuous record of the air over mountains: every thermal day, hundreds of pilots fly for hours along the slopes and across the valleys and record their vertical speed once per second. The obstacle is that a vario measures the air plus the sink of the glider, and the sink polars of paragliders are unknown. We obtain them from the logs themselves. [...]
Improvement of Daily Temperature Forecasts from a Prediction Market
Published: 2026-10-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Natural Resource Economics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Prediction markets aggregate and distill the collective views of participants who have a financial stake in being correct. They have been shown to produce more accurate forecasts in realms like election results, which are not easily amenable to mechanistic modeling because they entail forecasting human behavior. It is far less clear that prediction markets should improve the accuracy of [...]
Slopes rarely out-warm the floor a 2003–2025 MODIS assessment of deep surface-based night-time inversions over the Malang basin, East Java
Published: 2026-10-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Nocturnal cold-air pools can trap heat and pollutants in basin cities, but tropical basins are seldom monitored. We assessed deep surface-based night-time inversions over the Malang basin, East Java, Indonesia, from 2003–2025 MODIS Terra and Aqua night-time land surface temperature (LST), using the difference ΔT between a slope band (900–1300 m; mean 1079 m) and the rural basin floor (≤ 600 m; [...]
Preserving Probabilistic Meaning in Weather-to-Text Generation
Published: 2026-10-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Weather-to-text generation must preserve the event attached to a probability, not only its numerical value. We represent rainfall statements through event thresholds, boundary inclusion, probability levels and conditioning. A verifier bounds event probabilities under partially specified exact distributions and separately checks fidelity to operational reporting conventions. We evaluate eight [...]
Forecasting the moisture content of live forest fuels with a transformer machine learning model and Sentinel-2 satellite data
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Biology, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Plant Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences, Plant Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) provides an indicator of vegetation flammability, the potential for canopy dieback from drought, and habitat quality for arboreal fauna. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have increased the potential in meteorological forecasts for Earth surface forecasting. Combining weather forecasts with remotely sensed LFMC offers a promising avenue for short and [...]
Leveraging Ocean Data and Models: Building the Data Infrastructure, Workforce, and Modeling Capacity to Synthesize Earth’s Ocean Observations
Published: 2026-09-25
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geology, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
NASA’s aquatic and marine research enterprise within the overarching NASA Biosphere Program is entering an era of unprecedented data abundance. MODIS and the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission already generate ocean color data at rates that strain legacy processing and archiving workflows, and forthcoming missions will add further volume and complexity. These satellite [...]
Estimating Extreme Gusts via Optical Flow Tracking from Defoliated Tree Motion
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Peak 3-second gusts (s₃) during severe storms are critical drivers of wind damage, yet their fine-scale dynamics remain difficult to measure. Visual Anemometry (VA) unlocks the possibility of spatially dense wind speed estimates, yet its performance under extreme winds remains poorly understood. Here, we combine physics-based simulations of tree motion with Optical Flow Tracking Velocimetry [...]
Encouraging Wildfire Mitigation Action Via National Weather Service Fire Weather Products
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
Wildfire mitigation actions intend to reduce the probability and consequences (risk) of wildfire to critical assets by protecting the life and property of the public and emergency responders during and after a wildfire event. Given mitigation activities span a continuum of timescales from minutes to years and multiple orders-of-magnitude in terms of costs, an opportunity exists to encourage [...]
Extreme Precipitation Indices Trends and Patterns in the Philippines
Published: 2026-09-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology
The Philippines experiences approximately 86% of its recorded disaster events from extreme precipitation, yet national-scale trend studies remain constrained by sparse station networks and narrow index coverage. This study mapped the spatial patterns and long-term trends of 12 extreme precipitation indices across the Philippine archipelago using 45 years of daily gridded precipitation data from [...]
Methodological Bias between Trajectory Geometric Co-location and Air-Parcel Lagrangian Co-location: Evidence from UAV Re-penetration Observations over the Western Sichuan Plateau
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Whether "trajectory geometric co-location" is equivalent to "air-parcel Lagrangian co-location" remains a methodological blind spot in evaluating UAV cloud-seeding re-penetration (the UAV performed a repeated cloud penetration—hereafter, re-penetration—to re-sample the same cloud volume). Using silver iodide (AgI) seeding observations from a Wing Loong-2 UAV flight over the Western Sichuan [...]
Evaluating forecast baselines and network representativeness for daily PM2.5 in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
An order-fair attribution of daily PM2.5 predictability in the Kathmandu Valley assigns 72% of achievable error reduction to persistence, 19% to meteorology and 9% to day-of-year climatology, with the latter two largely redundant; no fitted model, including random forests and gradient boosting tuned by nested chronological cross-validation, outperforms an unfitted lag-1 forecast (11.22 µg m-3). [...]