Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Meteorology
Spatiotemporal evolution of temperature extremes across India’s agro-climatic zones (1951–2025)
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography
Long-term changes in temperature extremes are a robust signature of anthropogenic climate change, yet their spatial structure across India’s agro-climatic zones (ACZs) remains insufficiently resolved at policy scales. Here, we quantify changes in temperature extremes across 14 mainland ACZs during 1951–2025 using the India Meteorological Department 1°×1° gridded daily dataset. We compute 22 [...]
Persistent Multi-Scale Consistency in Best-Track Intensity Evolution and Rapid Intensification in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (1851–2024)
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rapid intensification (RI), commonly defined as an increase in maximum sustained wind speed of at least 30 kt within 24 h, remains one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates whether persistent multi-scale consistency in best-track intensity evolution is statistically associated with RI occurrence across the full Atlantic historical record. A [...]
The Hermatz Effect: A Five-Layer Solar–Geo Dynamo Model for the Persistent 0.038 Hz Global Seismic Signal
Published: 2026-03-30
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Condensed Matter Physics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Astrophysics and Astronomy, Other Physics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure, The Sun and the Solar System
Earth produces a faint but globally detectable vibration at a period of exactly 26 seconds, and no one has fully explained why. This paper proposes that it comes from a crack in the ocean floor off West Africa acting like a tuned whistle — the ocean blows air through it, the crack vibrates at its natural frequency, and the vibration travels around the entire planet as a seismic wave. Occasionally [...]
Do Less Predictable Tropical Cyclones Induce Larger Damages?
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Statistical Models
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause substantial disaster losses worldwide. Forecast skill for TC track and intensity has been improved by enhanced observations, high-resolution numerical models, advanced data assimilation methods, and applications of machine-learning methods. Yet these improvements have not consistently translated into reduced losses, in part because disaster outcomes depend on many [...]
The Response of Onset and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Volcanic Aerosols
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Large volcanic eruptions are a source of climate variability, affecting the seasonal mean precipitation of the Indian summer monsoon. However, the extent to which changes in seasonal precipitation can be attributed to variations in monsoon length vs. monsoon intensity has remained unclear. Using large ensemble simulations of idealised volcanic eruptions at varying latitudes, we find that the [...]
Revisiting Pyroclimographs
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Education, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
Wildland fire activity often demonstrates distinct seasonality. Multiple peaks of activity may occur throughout the year with varying magnitudes and durations due to climatologically conducive conditions for wildfire activity or intentional burning. Yet, anomalous fire environment conditions can favor wildfires at any point in the year. Characterization of conditions that increase fire ignition [...]
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
Facilitating AI-Driven Sustainability: A Service-Oriented Ar-chitecture for Interoperable Environmental Data Access
Published: 2026-01-13
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology, Software Engineering, Sustainability
Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly agentic AI, have created opportunities to enhance global sustainability by improving the efficiency and accuracy of environmental monitoring and response systems. Agentic AIs autonomously plan and execute towards specific goals with minimal or no human intervention; however, accessing environmental data is challenging and requires expertise, [...]
Evaluating the importance of street trees and their parameters for urban canopy model performance: Model updates and machine learning
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
In this study, the effects of street trees on the performance of an urban canopy model (UCM) and how the UCM sensitively responds to tree-related parameters compared with urban thermal parameters are examined. For this, a single-layer UCM is extended to represent street trees within urban canyons and multi-objective parameter optimizations and a global sensitivity analysis are conducted with the [...]
FEMA Phase-Out? Catastrophic Extremes Limit Decentralization of U.S. Flood Insurance
Published: 2025-11-13
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability, Systems Engineering
The U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) faces growing solvency and affordability pressures amid proposals to decentralize FEMA and shift disaster management to states. Many catastrophic floods span state boundaries, exposing multiple decentralized insurance pools simultaneously. Using a path-independent simulation framework that integrates risk-based premiums, [...]
Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends
Published: 2025-11-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Western European heat extremes have intensified in recent decades, with their rate of warming outpacing the global mean. Against this general human-induced warming trend, understanding the circulation patterns that drive such heat extremes is crucial. Weather-regime (WR) approaches have been widely used to characterise large-scale circulation variability; however, conventional classifications are [...]
Probabilistic interpolation of crowdsourced meteorological data for higher-resolution gridded estimates of surface air temperature
Published: 2025-10-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistical Models
Crowdsourced air temperature data from networks like Weather Underground offer dense spatial coverage and are increasingly used to study the canopy urban heat island (CUHI) effect. However, these observations are noisy: siting conditions, environmental interference, and sensor failures introduce spatially and temporally varying bias. This complicates interpolation, limiting our ability to [...]
A Comparative Evaluation of Advanced Urban Data Methods in WRF
Published: 2025-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Urban parameterization is critical for accurately simulating near-surface temperature and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in WRF. In this study, we compare three distinct approaches—W2W (a Python package integrating WUDAPT LCZ data), WRFUP (a Python package leveraging global high-resolution datasets), and a LiDAR-based parameterization—during the August, 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France. Our [...]
Evaluating Urban Heat Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heatwaves in Complex Terrain: A Case Study of Grenoble, France
Published: 2025-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physics
Urban heat adaptation strategies are critical for mitigating the impacts of ex- treme heat events in cities, particularly as climate change exacerbates their intensity and frequency. This study evaluates a set of adaptation strategies during the 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France, using the WRF model with the BEP+BEM urban canopy scheme. Eight scenarios are simulated, including increased [...]
Lorenz Energy Cycle Climatology for the Southwestern Atlantic Cyclones
Published: 2025-09-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
This study presents a climatological assessment of the Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) applied to South Atlantic cyclones, using a Semi-Lagrangian framework. Over 6,700 cyclones were identified from ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2020), and LEC components were computed and averaged across four objectively defined life cycle phases: incipient, intensification, mature, and decay. Results reveal a coherent energy [...]