Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Meteorology
An unprecedented Mediterranean tropical cyclogenesis attempt above extreme sea surface temperatures?
Published: 2026-11-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
On 3-4 October 2026, a strong and organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over the Balearic Sea in the Western Mediterranean, and produced torrential rainfall in the Barcelona area, with up to 248 mm at Granollers (230 mm in 8 hours; 65 mm in an hour). The event occurred without discernible large-scale forcing from an upper-level cut-off low or trough, while western Mediterranean [...]
Conditional reliability of gridded rainfall datasets in Nigeria
Published: 2026-10-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Gridded rainfall datasets support Nigerian research and climate services, but published agreement depends on the rainfall property, release and validation design. This critical narrative review audits 18 Nigerian gauge-reference evaluations and two contextual comparator studies. The core register contains five complete-text, five passage-only and eight abstract-only records. An archived [...]
Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Atmospheric Pollutants and Dispersion Mechanisms over West Bengal (2019–2024): Insights from Sentinel-5P, GEOS-CHEM, and HYSPLIT Models
Published: 2026-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
This study delivers a thorough spatio-temporal analysis of atmospheric pollutants and their dispersion mechanisms across West Bengal (2019–2024), utilizing an integrated approach of Earth Observation and modeling techniques. We employed satellite data from Sentinel-5P alongside GEOS-Chem box modeling, HYSPLIT trajectory simulations, and AI-enhanced statistical methods to examine trends, identify [...]
Relationship between Meteorological Parameters and Temporal Variations of Microseismic Processes at the Belarusian Antarctic Research Station
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography
This study involved an analysis of seismic data acquired in the surrounding area of the Belarusian Antarctic research station “Mount Vechernyaya” in February, 2023 to identify a possible relationship between the seismic noises and local meteorological parameters. Probability density functions of power spectral densities histograms were constructed using the ObsPy framework based on the source [...]
Tail Skill and Ensemble-Configuration Sensitivity in Six-Hour Precipitation Postprocessing
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Meteorology
Statistical postprocessing supports probabilistic precipitation forecasting. Comparing methods requires separating forecast performance from the effects of case selection, ensemble configuration, and scoring convention. We develop a paired diagnostic workflow that separates observation conditioning from aggregation, decomposes model and raw-ensemble responses to member reduction, and examines [...]
Storm-Level Independent Verification of Operational Cloud Seeding: Seven Seasons of Utah's Program, 2016-2025
Published: 2026-10-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Meteorology
Operational winter cloud seeding programs claim precipitation increases of 3-15%, but the evaluations supporting these claims are produced by program operators using target/control methods that cannot separate seeding effects from operator storm selection: storms are seeded precisely when atmospheric conditions favor the target areas. This study performs, to the author's knowledge, the first [...]
Paraglider flight logs as hypsometers: daily temperature profiles of an Alpine valley, its diurnal heating, and the nearly level ceiling of thermals
Published: 2026-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A paraglider flight recorder stores both pressure and GNSS altitude: together they turn routine flight logs into hypsometric measurements of layer-mean virtual temperature. From 86 369 IGC logs of the Valais, Swiss Alps, quality screening retains 13 520 dedicated-instrument flights on 437 days in 2011–2026; 392 days provide at least one profile layer supported by ten flights. At midday, between [...]
Paragliders as probes of the Alpine boundary layer: sink polars from 86 000 flight logs and the flow field of a valley
Published: 2026-10-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Paraglider flight logs are a dense, free and continuous record of the air over mountains: every thermal day, hundreds of pilots fly for hours along the slopes and across the valleys and record their vertical speed once per second. The obstacle is that a vario measures the air plus the sink of the glider, and the sink polars of paragliders are unknown. We obtain them from the logs themselves. [...]
Improvement of Daily Temperature Forecasts from a Prediction Market
Published: 2026-10-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Natural Resource Economics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Prediction markets aggregate and distill the collective views of participants who have a financial stake in being correct. They have been shown to produce more accurate forecasts in realms like election results, which are not easily amenable to mechanistic modeling because they entail forecasting human behavior. It is far less clear that prediction markets should improve the accuracy of [...]
Slopes rarely out-warm the floor a 2003–2025 MODIS assessment of deep surface-based night-time inversions over the Malang basin, East Java
Published: 2026-10-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Nocturnal cold-air pools can trap heat and pollutants in basin cities, but tropical basins are seldom monitored. We assessed deep surface-based night-time inversions over the Malang basin, East Java, Indonesia, from 2003–2025 MODIS Terra and Aqua night-time land surface temperature (LST), using the difference ΔT between a slope band (900–1300 m; mean 1079 m) and the rural basin floor (≤ 600 m; [...]
Preserving Probabilistic Meaning in Weather-to-Text Generation
Published: 2026-10-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Weather-to-text generation must preserve the event attached to a probability, not only its numerical value. We represent rainfall statements through event thresholds, boundary inclusion, probability levels and conditioning. A verifier bounds event probabilities under partially specified exact distributions and separately checks fidelity to operational reporting conventions. We evaluate eight [...]
Forecasting the moisture content of live forest fuels with a transformer machine learning model and Sentinel-2 satellite data
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Biology, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Plant Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences, Plant Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) provides an indicator of vegetation flammability, the potential for canopy dieback from drought, and habitat quality for arboreal fauna. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have increased the potential in meteorological forecasts for Earth surface forecasting. Combining weather forecasts with remotely sensed LFMC offers a promising avenue for short and [...]
Leveraging Ocean Data and Models: Building the Data Infrastructure, Workforce, and Modeling Capacity to Synthesize Earth’s Ocean Observations
Published: 2026-09-25
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geology, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
NASA’s aquatic and marine research enterprise within the overarching NASA Biosphere Program is entering an era of unprecedented data abundance. MODIS and the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission already generate ocean color data at rates that strain legacy processing and archiving workflows, and forthcoming missions will add further volume and complexity. These satellite [...]
Estimating Extreme Gusts via Optical Flow Tracking from Defoliated Tree Motion
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Peak 3-second gusts (s₃) during severe storms are critical drivers of wind damage, yet their fine-scale dynamics remain difficult to measure. Visual Anemometry (VA) unlocks the possibility of spatially dense wind speed estimates, yet its performance under extreme winds remains poorly understood. Here, we combine physics-based simulations of tree motion with Optical Flow Tracking Velocimetry [...]
Encouraging Wildfire Mitigation Action Via National Weather Service Fire Weather Products
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
Wildfire mitigation actions intend to reduce the probability and consequences (risk) of wildfire to critical assets by protecting the life and property of the public and emergency responders during and after a wildfire event. Given mitigation activities span a continuum of timescales from minutes to years and multiple orders-of-magnitude in terms of costs, an opportunity exists to encourage [...]