Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Meteorology

Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.

Héctor Sacristán

Published: 2024-09-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology

In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]

Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios

Franciscus Eduard Buskop, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Bart van den Hurk

Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis

In the upcoming decades, climate change impacts will increasingly emerge, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. Often, multi-model means of climate responses to various emission scenarios are used to [...]

How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments Respond to Climate Change?

Katherine E Hollinger Beatty, Gary M. Lackmann, Jared H. Bowden

Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Here we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United States: Hurricanes Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018). While these storms were impactful when they occurred, how might the impacts of similar [...]

Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique

Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Bart van den Hurk, et al.

Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management

Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]

The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California

Patrick T Brown, Scott Strenfel, Richard B. Bagley, et al.

Published: 2024-02-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]

Pygoda: a graphical interface to efficiently visualise and explore large sets of geolocated time series

Yann Ziegler, Jonathan L. Bamber

Published: 2023-10-24
Subjects: Categorical Data Analysis, Climate, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Graphics and Human Computer Interfaces, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Statistics and Probability, Spatial Science

Modern-day data sets in geosciences may comprise hundreds or thousands of geolocated time series. Despite all the automated tools and new algorithms now available to process and prepare those data before using them in research projects, it can be useful or even necessary to visualise and investigate them manually. Whether it be for data quality assessment, for the preparation of a training data [...]

Digitization of Weather Records of Seungjeongwon Ilgi: A Historical Weather Dynamics Dataset of the Korean Peninsula in 1623-1910

Kohei Ichikawa, Zeyu Lyu, Yongchao Cheng, et al.

Published: 2023-10-06
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Historical weather records from Europe indicate that the Earth experienced substantial climate variability, which caused, for instance, the Little Ice Age and the global crisis in the period between the 14th and 19th centuries. However, it is still unclear how global this climate variability was because of the scarce meteorological data availability in other regions including East Asia, [...]

Temporal and Spatial Satellite Data Augmentation for Deep Learning-Based Rainfall Nowcasting

Özlem Baydaroğlu, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2023-10-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Climate change has been associated with alterations in precipitation patterns and increased vulnerability to floods and droughts. The need for improvements in forecasting and monitoring approaches has become imperative due to flash floods and severe flooding. Rainfall prediction is a challenging but critical issue owing to the complexity of atmospheric processes, the spatial and temporal [...]

The contemporary stable isotope hydrology of Lake Suigetsu and surrounding catchment (Japan) and its implications for sediment-derived palaeoclimate records

Charlie Rex, Jonathan Tyler, Kazuyoshi Nagaya, et al.

Published: 2023-10-03
Subjects: Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Meteorology

The Lake Suigetsu sediment cores exemplify a high-quality archive of palaeoclimatic change in East Asia during the past 150 ka. Robust interpretation of stable isotope-based proxy reconstructions from the Suigetsu cores can be aided by a greater understanding of the factors affecting the isotope composition of the lake and how it relates to that of precipitation. Here we use extended contemporary [...]

360-day to Gregorian calendar climate model output conversion

Jonny Williams

Published: 2023-07-05
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Data from some climate model simulations is in a 360 days per year format, that is, every month is 30 days long. The main reason for this is analytical convenience in creating seasonal, annual and multi-annual means which are an integral part of climate model development and evaluation. This work illustrates a method to convert daily-mean, 360-day calendar climate model data into 'real', [...]

Global 1km Land Surface Parameters for Kilometer-Scale Earth System Modeling

Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, Dalei Hao, et al.

Published: 2023-06-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (k-scale). However, the surface parameters for Land Surface Models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, [...]

Standardized Benchmark of Historical Compound Wind and Solar Energy Droughts Across the Continental United States

Cameron Bracken, Nathalie Voisin, Casey Burleyson, et al.

Published: 2023-06-23
Subjects: Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Sustainability

As we move towards a decarbonized grid, reliance on weather-dependent energy increases as does exposure to prolonged natural resource shortages known as energy droughts. Compound energy droughts occur when two or more predominant renewable energy sources simultaneously are in drought conditions. In this study we present a methodology and dataset for examining compound wind and solar energy [...]

Projected Changes in Hot, Dry and Compound Hot-Dry Extremes over Global Land Regions

Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat

Published: 2023-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The impacts of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes are significant for societies, economies and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes over global land [...]

Assessment of simulations of a polar low with the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Marta Moreno Ibáñez, René Laprise, Philippe Gachon

Published: 2023-04-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology

Polar lows (PLs), which are intense maritime polar mesoscale cyclones, are associated with severe weather conditions. Due to their small size and rapid development, PL forecasting remains a challenge. Convection-permitting models are adequate to forecast PLs since, compared to coarser models, they provide a better representation of convection as well as surface and near-surface processes. A PL [...]

Dynamic rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Progo Catchment, Java, Indonesia

Ratna Satyaningsih, Victor Jetten, Janneke Ettema, et al.

Published: 2023-01-20
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Meteorology

This study aims to derive and evaluate new empirical rainfall thresholds as the basis for landslide early warning in Progo Catchment, Indonesia, using high-resolution rainfall datasets. Although attempts have been made to determine such thresholds for regions in Indonesia, they used coarse-resolution data and fixed rainfall duration that might not reflect the characteristics of rainfall events [...]

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