Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Meteorology
Analysis of sub-regional climates in the European Alps based on the EEAR-Clim observational dataset
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
The European Alps exhibit a complex geomorphology and undergo the influences of different climate regimes, resulting in high spatial variability of climatic variables and their changes. To provide a detailed analysis of climate regions and climatic changes occurring at a sub-regional scale during the 1961-2020 period, we exploited an updated regionalization of the European Alps that benefits from [...]
First Observational Evidence That Biological Giant CCN Control Urban Rainfall Character: A Natural Experiment from Islamabad's Paper Mulberry Removal
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
Modeling studies predict that biological aerosol, specifically pollen acting as giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN), can modify precipitation character by initiating collision-coalescence and warm rain in shallow cloud (Steiner et al., 2015; Wozniak et al., 2018; Paukert et al., 2025). No observational study has tested this prediction. We exploit a natural experiment, the removal of ~29,000 [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
Spatiotemporal evolution of temperature extremes across India’s agro-climatic zones (1951–2025)
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography
Long-term changes in temperature extremes are a robust signature of anthropogenic climate change, yet their spatial structure across India’s agro-climatic zones (ACZs) remains insufficiently resolved at policy scales. Here, we quantify changes in temperature extremes across 14 mainland ACZs during 1951–2025 using the India Meteorological Department 1°×1° gridded daily dataset. We compute 22 [...]
Forward-Only Temporal-Coherence Occupancy Regimes in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution (1851–2024)
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We test whether a forward-only state derived solely from maximum sustained wind speed (VMAX) provides a reproducible description of tropical cyclone intensity persistence and historical rapid-intensification (RI) stratification. Atlantic HURDAT2 records for 1,991 storms during 1851–2024 were evaluated with causal 3-, 5-, and 9-advisory tendencies. A state was confirmed only when the current and [...]
Do Less Predictable Tropical Cyclones Induce Larger Damages?
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Statistical Models
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause substantial disaster losses worldwide. Forecast skill for TC track and intensity has been improved by enhanced observations, high-resolution numerical models, advanced data assimilation methods, and applications of machine-learning methods. Yet these improvements have not consistently translated into reduced losses, in part because disaster outcomes depend on many [...]
The Response of Onset and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Volcanic Aerosols
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Large volcanic eruptions are a source of climate variability, affecting the seasonal mean precipitation of the Indian summer monsoon. However, the extent to which changes in seasonal precipitation can be attributed to variations in monsoon length vs. monsoon intensity has remained unclear. Using large ensemble simulations of idealised volcanic eruptions at varying latitudes, we find that the [...]
Visualizing Pyroclimatology
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Education, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
Background: Wildland fire activity often demonstrates distinct seasonality resulting from the alignment of climatologically favorable fuels, weather, and ignitions. Characterization of windows favoring extreme fire behavior and beneficial fire potential at relevant spatiotemporal scales provides context for interpreting fire regimes and informing wildland fire management. Methods: Adapting the [...]
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
Facilitating AI-Driven Sustainability: A Service-Oriented Ar-chitecture for Interoperable Environmental Data Access
Published: 2026-01-13
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology, Software Engineering, Sustainability
Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly agentic AI, have created opportunities to enhance global sustainability by improving the efficiency and accuracy of environmental monitoring and response systems. Agentic AIs autonomously plan and execute towards specific goals with minimal or no human intervention; however, accessing environmental data is challenging and requires expertise, [...]
Evaluating the importance of street trees and their parameters for urban canopy model performance: Model updates and machine learning
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
In this study, the effects of street trees on the performance of an urban canopy model (UCM) and how the UCM sensitively responds to tree-related parameters compared with urban thermal parameters are examined. For this, a single-layer UCM is extended to represent street trees within urban canyons and multi-objective parameter optimizations and a global sensitivity analysis are conducted with the [...]
FEMA Phase-Out? Catastrophic Extremes Limit Decentralization of U.S. Flood Insurance
Published: 2025-11-13
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability, Systems Engineering
The U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) faces growing solvency and affordability challenges amid proposals to decentralize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and shift disaster management to states. Catastrophic floods often span state boundaries, exposing multiple decentralized insurance pools simultaneously. Using a path-independent simulation framework that integrates [...]
Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends
Published: 2025-11-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Western European heat extremes have intensified in recent decades, with their rate of warming outpacing the global mean. Against this general human-induced warming trend, understanding the circulation patterns that drive such heat extremes is crucial. Weather-regime (WR) approaches have been widely used to characterise large-scale circulation variability; however, conventional classifications are [...]
Probabilistic interpolation of crowdsourced meteorological data for higher-resolution gridded estimates of surface air temperature
Published: 2025-10-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistical Models
Crowdsourced air temperature data from networks like Weather Underground offer dense spatial coverage and are increasingly used to study the canopy urban heat island (CUHI) effect. However, these observations are noisy: siting conditions, environmental interference, and sensor failures introduce spatially and temporally varying bias. This complicates interpolation, limiting our ability to [...]
A Comparative Evaluation of Advanced Urban Data Methods in WRF
Published: 2025-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Urban parameterization is critical for accurately simulating near-surface temperature and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in WRF. In this study, we compare three distinct approaches—W2W (a Python package integrating WUDAPT LCZ data), WRFUP (a Python package leveraging global high-resolution datasets), and a LiDAR-based parameterization—during the August, 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France. Our [...]