Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Meteorology
Why is the Hurricane Season So Sharp?
Published: 2021-04-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is a problem of profound societal significance and deep scientific interest. The annual cycle is the biggest radiatively-forced signal in TC variability, presenting a key test of our understanding and modeling of TC activity. TCs over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, which are usually called hurricanes, have a sharp peak in the annual cycle, with more [...]
Hydro-Meteorological Aspects of the 2021 South Kalimantan Flood: Topography, Tides, and Precipitation
Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
The 2021 South Kalimantan flood was recorded as the most serious ever to have taken place in the province. It occurred due to high-intensity rain during the period 10-19 January, accompanied by a spring tide. This study provides an overview of the disaster, with reference to the hydro-meteorological conditions (topography, tides, and precipitation). The method used was the analysis of the [...]
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020
Published: 2021-02-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ) and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, following successful forecasts in previous years. The 3-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the [...]
A study of nowcast of Indian Monsoon Rainfall over Mumbai using Rainymotion
Published: 2020-12-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Since ages, we know that rainfall is a very important factor in deciding the fate of a country. In an agrarian country like India where more than 70% of rural households are dependent on agriculture, agriculture contributes to nearly 17% GDP of the country and is directly dependent on rainfall. Excessive rainfall can lead to floods, landslides, soil erosion and no rainfall can lead to [...]
Idealized forecast-assimilation experiments for convective-scale Numerical Weather Prediction
Published: 2020-12-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
To aid understanding of and facilitate research into forecast-assimilation systems of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), idealized models that embody essential characteristics of these systems can be used. This article concerns the use of such an idealized fluid model of convective-scale NWP in inexpensive data assimilation (DA) experiments. The forecast model, introduced in Kent et al (2017), [...]
Chevrons: origin and relevance for the reconstruction of past wind regimes
Published: 2020-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Since its first use in the late 80’s, the term chevron has been employed in numerous studies to describe large U- and V-shaped ridges found in or near shorelines worldwide. Most studies have so far focused on Bahamian chevrons that are exclusively of Late Pleistocene age, and on the supposed Holocene chevrons found in S-Madagascar and Australia. In the Bahamas, these deposits have been [...]
UNSEEN trends: Detecting decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes
Published: 2020-05-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain non-stationary behaviour. To facilitate detection of non-stationarities in 100-year precipitation values over a short period of 35 years (1981-2015), we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and lead times from the ECMWF seasonal prediction system [...]
COVID-19-related drop in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in China and corresponding cloud and climate effects
Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to massive disruptions of public life on a global scale. To halt the spread of the disease, China temporarily shut down parts of the manufacturing and transportation sectors. Associated anthropogenic aerosol emissions in February 2020 plunged to record lows, causing a temporary improvement of air quality with uncertain effects on cloud formation, atmospheric [...]
Asian monsoon amplifies semi-direct effect of biomass burning aerosols on low cloud formation
Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocu-mulus over the Southeast Atlantic in austral spring through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that [...]
Aerosols bias daily weather prediction
Published: 2020-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Weather prediction is essential to human daily life. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are still subject to substantial forecast bias and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosols, despite of the consensus of aerosols as the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Here we show aerosols as an important driver biasing daily temperature [...]
Predicting outbreak-level tornado counts and casualties from environmental variables
Published: 2020-04-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Environmental variables are used routinely in forecasting when and where an outbreak of tornadoes are likely to occur, but more work is needed to understand how characteristics of severe weather outbreaks vary with the larger scale environmental factors. Here the authors demonstrate a method to quantify `outbreak-level tornado and casualty counts with respect to variations in large-scale [...]
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service
Published: 2020-03-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River Basin allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on forecasting rainfall directly using a dynamical model. Here [...]
Constructing statutory energy goal compliant wind and solar PV infrastructure pathways
Published: 2019-10-31
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science
Concerns over climate change have led governments around the world to establish a range of renewable, low-carbon energy goals. Plans for meeting these targets vary widely in their ambition, specificity, and time horizons. Wind and solar electricity generation will feature prominently in future energy systems that meet these renewable, low-carbon energy goals. Implementing large-scale wind and [...]
Solar signals in observation indeed implied enhanced predictability since 1977
Published: 2019-08-27
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This is a Correspondence submitted to Nature GeoScience following the undermentioned paper: Gabriel Chiodo, Jessica Oehrlein, Lorenzo M. Polvani, John C. Fyfe & Anne K. Smith, Insignificant influence of 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Nature Geoscience, volume 12, pages 94–99 (2019). It is a non-peer reviewed preprint.
Interannual, probabilistic prediction of water resources over Europe following the heatwave and drought 2018
Published: 2019-08-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The year 2018 was one of the hottest and driest years in Europe having a large impact on agriculture, ecosystems and society. The associated drought in central and northern Europe underpins the need for water resources predictions at the seasonal to interannual time scale. In this study, we propose a probabilistic, terrestrial prediction system including water resources utilizing the Terrestrial [...]