# Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Probability

## The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California

**Published**: 2024-02-21

**Subjects**: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]

## Designing and describing climate change impact attribution studies: a guide to common approaches

**Published**: 2024-01-06

**Subjects**: Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Public Health, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Impact attribution is an emerging transdisciplinary sub-discipline of detection and attribution, focused on the social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change. Here, we provide an overview of common end-to-end frameworks in impact attribution, focusing on examples relating to the human health impacts of climate change. We propose a typology of study designs based on whether [...]

## Formulating and Solving the Data-Consistent Geophysical Inverse Problem for Subsurface Modeling Applications

**Published**: 2023-05-27

**Subjects**: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Probability

Today, most probabilistic geophysical inverse problems are formulated using one of two methods: (1) conditional probability and Bayes’ Theorem, or (2) Tarantola’s theory of intersecting probability densities. More recently, a third inverse problem formulation based on pushforward probability measures was proposed, termed “data-consistent inversion”. Many practical problems can be cast into any of [...]

## Bayesian analysis of ground motion models using chimney fragility curves: 2021, 5.9-Mw Woods Point intraplate earthquake, Victoria, Australia

**Published**: 2022-11-15

**Subjects**: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

The 22 September 2021 (AEST) Mw 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred in an intraplate setting (southeast Australia) approximately 130 km East Northeast of the central business district of Melbourne (pop. ∼5.15 million). A lack of seismic instrumentation and a low population density in the epicentral region resulted in a dearth of near-source instrumental and “felt” report intensity data, limiting [...]

## Plant Breeding Biomolecular Classification in Quantum Bayesianism (QBism) Physics-Informed Neural Network Architecture

**Published**: 2022-08-31

**Subjects**: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Climate, Other Statistics and Probability, Plant Sciences, Probability, Quantum Physics, Research Methods in Life Sciences, Soil Science, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, Sustainability, Systems Biology

In this brief communication, biomolecular plant breeding multi-classification inference is discussed when leveraging the advantages of Physics-informed Neural Network (PiNN) architecture. Albeit, the expected utility of Partial Differential Equation (PDE) inspired neural networks resides in its performance under limited data availability; a variety of neural network configurations result from PDE [...]

## A univariate extreme value analysis and change point detection of monthly discharge in Kali Kupang, Central Java, Indonesia

**Published**: 2022-05-20

**Subjects**: Applied Statistics, Hydrology, Probability, Water Resource Management

This study presents how Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) can be used to predict future extreme hydrological events and how dynamic-programming based change point detection algorithm can be used to detect the abrupt transition in discharge events variability in Kali Kupang, Central Java, Indonesia. By using the annual block maxima, we can predict the upper extreme discharge probability from the Gumbel [...]

## Using sedimentological priors to improve 14C calibration of bioturbated sediment archives.

**Published**: 2021-07-01

**Subjects**: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

Radiocarbon (14C) dating is often carried out upon multi-specimen samples sourced from bioturbated sediment archives, such as deep-sea sediment. These samples are inherently heterogeneous in age, but current 14C calibration techniques applied to such age heterogenous samples were originally developed for age homogeneous material. A lack of information about age heterogeneity leads to a systematic [...]

## Bayesian population correlation: A probabilistic approach to inferring and comparing population distributions for detrital zircon ages

**Published**: 2021-06-19

**Subjects**: Geochemistry, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Tectonics and Structure

Populations of detrital zircons are shaped by geologic factors such as sediment transport, erosion mechanisms, and the zircon fertility of source areas. Zircon U-Pb age datasets are influenced both by these geologic factors and by the statistical effects of sampling. Such statistical effects introduce significant uncertainty into the inference of parent population age distributions from detrital [...]

## Controls on the development and termination of failed continental rifts: Insights from the crustal structure and rifting style of the North Sea via ambient noise tomography

**Published**: 2019-09-22

**Subjects**: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

The mid to lower crust plays an important role in rift initiation and evolution, particularly when large scale sutures and/or terrane boundaries are present. These inherited features can focus strain or act as inhibitors to extensional deformation. Ancient tectonic features are known to exist beneath the iconic failed rift system of the North Sea making it the ideal location to investigate the [...]

## Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust inferred from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling

**Published**: 2019-07-04

**Subjects**: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

Mapping the distribution of locked segments along subduction megathrusts is essential for improving quantitative assessments of seismic hazard. Previous geodetic studies suggest the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is homogeneously locked (or coupled) along its complete length over a down-dip extent of ~100 km. However, an increasing number of seismological and geophysical observations suggests the [...]

## Information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model for Optimal Flood Management

**Published**: 2019-06-27

**Subjects**: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Engineering, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Systems Engineering, Water Resource Management

The increasing impact of flooding urges more effective flood management strategies to guarantee sustainable ecosystem development. Recent catastrophes underline the importance of avoiding local flood management, but characterizing large scale basin wide approaches for systemic flood risk management. Here we introduce an information-theoretic Portfolio Decision Model (iPDM) for the optimization of [...]

## A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe

**Published**: 2019-04-01

**Subjects**: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability

We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based [...]

## Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment

**Published**: 2018-11-02

**Subjects**: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is [...]

## Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors

**Published**: 2018-03-08

**Subjects**: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Sea level rises at an accelerating pace threatening coastal communities all over the world. In this context sea level projections are key tools to help risk mitigation and adaptation. Sea level projections are often made using models of the main contributors to sea level rise (e.g. thermal expansion, glaciers, ice sheets...). To obtain the total sea level these contributions are added, therefore [...]

## Bootstrapped high quantile estimation --- An experiment with scarce precipitation data

**Published**: 2018-02-25

**Subjects**: Applied Statistics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

This paper details team SUTD’s effort when participating in the “Prediction of extremal precipitation” challenge. We propose a framework that combines the generalized Pareto distribution, a bootstrap resampling scheme and inverse distance weights to capture spatial dependence. Our method reduces the quantile loss functions by 55.1% as compared to a naive benchmark, and shows improvement across [...]