Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Geophysics and Seismology
Causal analyses reveal changing land-atmosphere patterns and soil moisture control under warming
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology
Climate change is projected to modify the global water cycle and land-atmosphere interactions. However, warming-induced changes in multivariate dependence remain insufficiently explored. Here we examine the interdependence among temperature, precipitable water, precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff in all five earth system models within the latest IPCC CMIP6 ensembles that [...]
TiMEpy: A Python Package for Analyzing Tidal Modulation of Fast and Slow Earthquakes
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Due to interactions between the solid Earth and tidal forces, the crust experiences continuous stress perturbations. Understanding how earthquakes respond to tidal stresses provides unique insights into the mechanisms governing earthquake nucleation. Here, we present TiMEpy, an open-source Python package designed to detect tidal modulation in both fast and slow earthquakes. TiMEpy includes [...]
Extreme recharge triggers seismicity in a confined karst aquifer in southern Spain
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure
Hydrological forcing during extreme recharge events can perturb crustal stress and trigger seismicity in a critically stressed crust, yet the coupling between aquifer dynamics and the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake swarms remains poorly constrained. Here we document such a response during an exceptional rainfall episode in early 2026 that affected a confined karst aquifer in southern [...]
Reduced geomagnetic shielding increased UV-B radiation at Earth’s surface during the Laschamps Event
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Biochemistry, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Exposure to excess UV-B radiation can harm organisms through DNA damage and oxidative stress, and has likely been a key ecological and evolutionary driver throughout Earth’s history. Here, we show UV-B at Earth’s surface was significantly increased during the Laschamps Event, the last major geomagnetic excursion ca. 41ka BP. During the Laschamps, we find significant and prolonged (lasting [...]
Intensifying Seismicity beneath Mount Teide: Assessing the Probability of an Imminent Eruption on Tenerife
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Recent seismic swarms in the western sector of the Las Cañadas Caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) have raised concerns regarding the potential for renewed eruptive activity at Teide. Although the earthquakes were of small magnitude and occurred at depths of around 6-12 km, their detection and media coverage generated public concern on an island visited by millions of tourists each year. Teide [...]
Quantifying 3D Modeling Errors in Time-Domain Electromagnetics: Implications for Deterministic and Probabilistic Inversions
Published: 2026-04-28
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Subsurface resistivity in geophysics is commonly estimated indirectly from dependent measurements. This relationship can be approximated in a forward operator using physical models, such as Maxwell’s equations for time-domain electromagnetics (TDEM), where measured voltages in receiver coils arise from decaying magnetic fields. In TDEM, the inverse operator usually does not exist, so inversion [...]
Upper Crustal Control on Nearshore Subduction Mechanics in Cascadia
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Along-strike upper plate heterogeneity is widely observed at subduction margins, but its direct influence on slab geometry and interseismic deformation remains debated. Here, we investigate the effect of upper-crustal geological segmentation on nearshore subduction mechanics at the Cascadia margin. Using a high-resolution, shore-crossing 3-D seismic tomography model from central to southern [...]
Dueling dynamics of low-angle normal fault rupture with splay faulting and off-fault damage
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
Despite a lack of modern large earthquakes on shallowly dipping normal faults, Holocene Mw>7 low-angle normal fault (LANF; dip<30°) ruptures are preserved paleoseismically and inferred from historical earthquake and tsunami accounts. Even in well-recorded megathrust earthquakes, the effects of non-linear off-fault plasticity and dynamically reactivated splay faults on shallow deformation [...]
The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM): A Unified Classification and Predictive Framework for Anomalous Luminous Phenomena
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Atmospheric plasma phenomena — persistent luminous orbs, recurrent earth lights, and earthquake lights observed at geographically distributed sites worldwide — share a common mechanism family rooted in stress-activated electronic charge carrier physics. The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM) formally classifies six geological activation pathways. Version 2.4 introduces four new Variable 3 [...]
Widespread urban seismic quietening during the 2024 total solar eclipse
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Estimating the ice thickness and water depth of a frozen lake using flexural waves recorded by distributed acoustic sensing
Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Information about frozen lakes, including ice rigidity, ice thickness, and water depth, is essential for both environmental studies and practical applications. Although these properties can be measured in the field, such measurements are labor-intensive and spatially limited, motivating the development of alternative observation methods. Seismic waves offer an alternative approach to studying [...]
Fractal Tomography and the Fisher Information Barrier of Seismicity: Addressing the Origin of Dual Paradoxes via Precision-Calibrated Bayesian Inference
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Non-linear Dynamics, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
The spatial organization of seismicity presents dual multi-decade paradoxes: (1) earthquake catalogs exhibit quasi-planar correlation dimensions (D2 ≈ 2.0–2.6) despite volumetric lithospheric deformation (geometric projection paradox), and (2) Bayesian inference systematically yields D3 ≈ 3.0 contradicting structural geology (Bayesian saturation paradox). We address both through the Fractal [...]
The 2025 𝑀𝑤 7.1 Tingri (South Tibet) Earthquake: Rupture of Normal Conjugate Optimally Oriented Faults, Shallow Coseismic Slip Deficit, and Early Afterslip
Published: 2026-04-04
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
On 7 January 2025, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Tingri County at the south of the Tibetan Plateau, China, producing widespread damage in the Lhatse-Sa'gya-Tingri region and adjacent areas. The earthquake ruptured a pair of conjugate north-south striking normal faults in the Dengmecuo graben, and was the largest normal earthquake instrumentally recorded in the region. We use Interferometric [...]
Multidisciplinary perspectives on Shishaldin Volcano: an open-system, deforming volcano
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
The integration of multidisciplinary data across multiple eruptions is essential to improve our understanding of a volcanic system. Shishaldin Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in Alaska, with several reported eruptions over the last 300 years. We synthesize multidisciplinary datasets going back to 1997 and focus our analyses on the 2014–2015, 2019–2020, and 2023 eruptive periods. We [...]
First Empirical Measurement of k G on Mars via InSight/ELYSE Seismic Data: A Two-Planet Validation of the Gasque Compliance
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology
We present the first empirical measurement of the Gasque compliance index k G = π × f₀ / (Q × V s ) on Mars, using 8.3 GB of InSight/ELYSE broadband seismic data (XB network, 2019–2022) processed with the Harmonic Matched Filter (HMF) pipeline. From 4,645,686 stacked PSD windows and 91 candidate frequencies tested via permutation (N = 1,000), five spectral features are recovered at p < 0.05, [...]