Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Geophysics and Seismology
Intensifying Seismicity beneath Mount Teide: Assessing the Probability of an Imminent Eruption on Tenerife
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Recent seismic swarms in the western sector of the Las Cañadas Caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) have raised concerns regarding the potential for renewed eruptive activity at Teide. Although the earthquakes were of small magnitude and occurred at depths of around 6-12 km, their detection and media coverage generated public concern on an island visited by millions of tourists each year. Teide [...]
Quantifying 3D Modeling Errors in Time-Domain Electromagnetics: Implications for Deterministic and Probabilistic Inversions
Published: 2026-04-28
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Subsurface resistivity in geophysics is commonly estimated indirectly from dependent measurements. This relationship can be approximated in a forward operator using physical models, such as Maxwell’s equations for time-domain electromagnetics (TDEM), where measured voltages in receiver coils arise from decaying magnetic fields. In TDEM, the inverse operator usually does not exist, so inversion [...]
Upper Crustal Control on Nearshore Subduction Mechanics in Cascadia
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Along-strike upper plate heterogeneity is widely observed at subduction margins, but its direct influence on slab geometry and interseismic deformation remains debated. Here, we investigate the effect of upper-crustal geological segmentation on nearshore subduction mechanics at the Cascadia margin. Using a high-resolution, shore-crossing 3-D seismic tomography model from central to southern [...]
Dueling dynamics of low-angle normal fault rupture with splay faulting and off-fault damage
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
Despite a lack of modern large earthquakes on shallowly dipping normal faults, Holocene Mw>7 low-angle normal fault (LANF; dip<30°) ruptures are preserved paleoseismically and inferred from historical earthquake and tsunami accounts. Even in well-recorded megathrust earthquakes, the effects of non-linear off-fault plasticity and dynamically reactivated splay faults on shallow deformation [...]
The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM): A Unified Classification and Predictive Framework for Anomalous Luminous Phenomena
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
This version supersedes v2.4 (April 2026). Following publication, the authors conducted a systematic adversarial self-review, submitting specific claims to independent multi-model critique with instruction to attack from the strongest available disciplinary angle. Four peripheral elements were identified as not meeting the evidentiary standard of the core framework and have been [...]
Widespread urban seismic quietening during the 2024 total solar eclipse
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Estimating the ice thickness and water depth of a frozen lake using flexural waves recorded by distributed acoustic sensing
Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Information about frozen lakes, including ice rigidity, ice thickness, and water depth, is essential for both environmental studies and practical applications. Although these properties can be measured in the field, such measurements are labor-intensive and spatially limited, motivating the development of alternative observation methods. Seismic waves offer an alternative approach to studying [...]
Fractal Tomography and the Fisher Information Barrier of Seismicity: Addressing the Origin of Dual Paradoxes via Precision-Calibrated Bayesian Inference
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Non-linear Dynamics, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
The spatial organization of seismicity presents dual multi-decade paradoxes: (1) earthquake catalogs exhibit quasi-planar correlation dimensions (D2 ≈ 2.0–2.6) despite volumetric lithospheric deformation (geometric projection paradox), and (2) Bayesian inference systematically yields D3 ≈ 3.0 contradicting structural geology (Bayesian saturation paradox). We address both through the Fractal [...]
The 2025 𝑀𝑤 7.1 Tingri (South Tibet) Earthquake: Rupture of Normal Conjugate Optimally Oriented Faults, Shallow Coseismic Slip Deficit, and Early Afterslip
Published: 2026-04-05
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
On 7 January 2025, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Tingri County at the south of the Tibetan Plateau, China, producing widespread damage in the Lhatse-Sa'gya-Tingri region and adjacent areas. The earthquake ruptured a pair of conjugate north-south striking normal faults in the Dengmecuo graben, and was the largest normal earthquake instrumentally recorded in the region. We use Interferometric [...]
Multidisciplinary perspectives on Shishaldin Volcano: an open-system, deforming volcano
Published: 2026-04-03
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
The integration of multidisciplinary data across multiple eruptions is essential to improve our understanding of a volcanic system. Shishaldin Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in Alaska, with several reported eruptions over the last 300 years. We synthesize multidisciplinary datasets going back to 1997 and focus our analyses on the 2014–2015, 2019–2020, and 2023 eruptive periods. We [...]
First Empirical Measurement of k G on Mars via InSight/ELYSE Seismic Data: A Two-Planet Validation of the Gasque Compliance
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology
We present the first empirical measurement of the Gasque compliance index k G = π × f₀ / (Q × V s ) on Mars, using 8.3 GB of InSight/ELYSE broadband seismic data (XB network, 2019–2022) processed with the Harmonic Matched Filter (HMF) pipeline. From 4,645,686 stacked PSD windows and 91 candidate frequencies tested via permutation (N = 1,000), five spectral features are recovered at p < 0.05, [...]
k G as a Passive Lithological Compliance Index Derivation from Independent Spectral Residuals and Validation across Seven Lithologies
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
We present k G = π × f₀ / (Q × V s ) as a passive lithological compliance index measurable from ambient seismic noise without drilling or active sources. The fundamental frequency f₀ is extracted from spectral residuals after subtraction of the common seismic mode (oceanic microseism), while V s and Q are drawn from published borehole measurements. Using this three-source independent framework [...]
Hyperlocal Seismic Soil Characteristic Measurements for Unexploded Ordnance Detection
Published: 2026-03-31
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) range from small plastic landmines to unexploded cannon shells to bombs that weigh hundreds of kilograms. They kill and maim thousands of people each year, make otherwise productive real estate unusable, and exist worldwide. Their variability and the variability of the soil in which they exist defeat and delay cleanup efforts. Current search technology treats soil [...]
Seismic and infrasound signals from the 2023 explosive eruption sequence of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska
Published: 2026-03-28
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska erupted in 2023 with 13 explosive paroxysms over a 4 month period, producing notable seismic and low frequency acoustic (infrasound) signals recorded on a local geophysical network. We describe the pre-, syn-, and post-eruptive seismoacoustic signals from the 2023 eruption sequence. Using a recently developed machine learning classifier, we detect and categorize diverse [...]
On the Origin of Directional Variability in Earthquake Response Spectra: A Stochastic Covariance Framework
Published: 2026-03-23
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology
Directional variability of horizontal earthquake response spectra is commonly described using rotation-based measures such as RotD50 and RotD100, yet its physical and statistical origin remains unclear. This study shows that directional anisotropy arises fundamentally from finite-sample fluctuations of the covariance matrix of filtered ground-motion response. Even under perfectly isotropic [...]