Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Hydrology
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
In the upcoming decades, climate change impacts will increasingly emerge, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. Often, multi-model means of climate responses to various emission scenarios are used to [...]
Modeling sediment compaction beneath ice lenses during frost heave
Published: 2024-07-13
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Frost heave occurs when the ground swells during freezing conditions due to the growth of ice lenses in the subsurface. The mechanics of ice-infiltrated sediment, or frozen fringe, influences the formation and evolution of ice lenses. As the frozen fringe thickens during freezing, progressive unloading can result in dilation of the pore space and the formation of new ice lenses. Compaction can [...]
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Published: 2024-07-12
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting [...]
Increasingly seasonal jet stream drives stormy episodes with joint wind-flood risk in Great Britain
Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis
Ignoring a correlation between flooding and extreme winds underestimates risk to insurers or providers of critical infrastructure such as railways or electricity. We explore this potential underestimation for Northwest Europe, illustrated using Great Britain (GB), using an event-based analysis in regional 12 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP18, 1981-1999, 2061-2079 – RCP8.5). We derive a new [...]
Machine Learning-based Hydrological Models for Flash Floods: A Systematic Literature Review
Published: 2024-07-01
Subjects: Hydrology
Background: Flash flood modeling faces many challenges since physically-based hydrological models are unsuitable for a small spatiotemporal scale. With the increased availability of hydrological observed data, an alternative approach is to use Machine Learning (ML) techniques. This work conducts a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to enhance our comprehension of the research landscape on [...]
An Immersive Hydroinformatics Framework with Extended Reality for Enhanced Visualization and Simulation of Hydrologic Data
Published: 2024-06-15
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Graphics and Human Computer Interfaces, Hydrology
This study introduces a novel framework, with the use of Extended Reality (XR) systems in hydrology, particularly focusing on immersive visualization of hydrologic data for enhanced environmental planning and decision-making. The study details the shift from traditional two-dimensional data visualization methods in hydrology to more advanced XR technologies, including virtual and augmented [...]
Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique
Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management
Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]
Integrating Conversational AI Agents for Enhanced Water Quality Analytics: Development of a Novel Data Expert System
Published: 2024-06-01
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Civil Engineering, Databases and Information Systems, Environmental Engineering, Hydrology, Software Engineering
Despite advancements in environmental monitoring, the gap between data collection and user-friendly data interpretation remains a significant challenge, especially in the domain of water quality management. This paper introduces the Artificial Intelligence Data Expert (AI-DE), a novel data analytics system that is designed to facilitate on-demand analysis of time-series sensor data related to [...]
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Multimodal Large Language Models in Hydrological Applications
Published: 2024-05-25
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with visual foundation models have demonstrated remarkable advancements, achieving a level of intelligence comparable to human capabilities. In this study, we conduct an analysis of the latest Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), specifically Multimodal-GPT, GPT-4 Vision, Gemini and LLaVa, focusing on their application in the hydrology domain. The hydrology domain holds [...]
Rising temperatures drive lower summer minimum flows across hydrologically diverse catchments
Published: 2024-05-25
Subjects: Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Excessively low stream flows harm ecosystems and societies, so two key goals of low-flow hydrology are to understand their drivers and to predict their severity and frequency. We show that simple linear regressions can accomplish both goals across diverse catchments. We analyse 230 unregulated moderate to high relief catchments across rainfall-dominated, hybrid, snowmelt-dominated, and glacial [...]
Archetypal flow regime change classes as signatures of anthropogenic drivers of global streamflow alterations
Published: 2024-05-14
Subjects: Hydrology
Streamflow – a key component of the water cycle – is experiencing drastic alteration due to human actions. While existing studies have widely assessed the global extent and degree of this change, understanding of its drivers has been limited because previous global-scale approaches have largely relied on modelled hypothetical scenarios. Here, we overcome these limitations by providing a [...]
A Review of Machine Learning in Snow Water Equivalent Monitoring
Published: 2024-05-10
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
In recent years, the scientific community focused on snow dynamics has witnessed a surge in efforts aimed at enhancing Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) monitoring capabilities, largely propelled by the incorporation of Machine Learning (ML) techniques. This comprehensive review delves into the current state of research within this evolving domain, shedding light on the indispensable role of precise [...]
A critical appraisal of water table depth estimation: Challenges and opportunities within machine learning
Published: 2024-05-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Hydrology
Fine-resolution spatial patterns of water table depth (WTD) play a crucial role in shaping ecological resilience, hydrological connectivity, and anthropocentric objectives. Generally, a large-scale (e.g., continental or global) spatial map of static WTD can be simulated using either physically-based (PB) or machine learning-based (ML) models. We construct three fine-resolution (500 m) ML [...]
Quantifying water availability in basins holding the majority of global lithium resources
Published: 2024-04-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Demand for lithium is expected to increase by as much as 40 times over the coming decades. More than half the world’s lithium resources are found in brine aquifers at the intersection of Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. As lithium exploration increases, accurate estimates of water availability are critical for water management decisions, particularly in this region home to communities and [...]
Evaluation of the METRIC and TSEB remote sensing evapotranspiration models in the floodplain area of the Thaya and Morava Rivers
Published: 2024-04-24
Subjects: Hydrology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences
Study region: Floodplain ecosystem region at the confluence of the Morava and Thaya Rivers, Czech Republic. Study focus: Accurate determination of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is essential for understanding surface hydrological conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate two remote sensing models, METRIC and TSEB, for estimating ETa and energy fluxes in two ecosystems using the eddy [...]