Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Environmental Sciences
Stream acidification and metal mobilization linked to permafrost degradation
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
We document rapid, climate-driven intensification of sulfide-mineral oxidation in permafrost-underlain headwater catchments of the Yukon and Mackenzie river basins—the two largest (sub)Arctic rivers in North America. Over the past decade, acidic (pH ~3) seepages have appeared in these headwaters that mobilize metals at acutely toxic concentrations and degrade water quality and chemistry in [...]
Strategic crop relocation could substantially mitigate nuclear winter yield losses
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science
Nuclear war could inject millions of tonnes of soot into the stratosphere, cooling the Earth and devastating crop yields. We assess crop relocation—switching which crops are grown where—as an adaptation strategy. Using the Mink crop model, we simulate six major crops under three nuclear winter scenarios (16, 47, and 150 Tg of soot). Without adaptation, global caloric production falls 23%, 53%, [...]
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Risk Analysis
Food is the foundation of our society. We often take it for granted, but stocks are rarely available for longer than a year, and food production can be disrupted by catastrophic events, both locally and globally. To highlight such major risks to the food system, we analyzed FAO crop production data from 1961 to 2023 to find the largest crop production shock for every country and identify its [...]
A Quantitative Analysis of Light Pollution in Gurgaon and a Deepened Understanding of its Impacts
Published: 2025-09-03
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences
Light pollution is an emerging environmental and health challenge in rapidly urbanizing Indian cities. This study quantifies night-sky brightness across Gurgaon using a low-cost, Arduino-based Sky Quality Meter (SQM) and integrates these measurements with perception surveys from 91 residents. A total of 62 ground-based data points were collected, revealing distinct spatial variations: highly [...]
Some new Models of Earth’s Temperature Anomaly across various Epochs Predicting Present Warming with Ice Age Validity Testing and a Data set Bias examination.
Published: 2025-08-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The need for methods to assess earth’s temperature anomaly are briefly discussed together with shortcomings of existing climate models. The geomagnetic or Pole shift method of climate sensitivity is briefly reviewed. The hypothesis that the previous two warm periods shared a common driver is tested and proven. Granger causality tests have been made and indicate that Pole Shift is the driver of [...]
Using X-ray Fluorescence to Detect Automobile Heavy Metal Pollution in Los Angeles Soils with Copper and Palladium as Indicators
Published: 2025-08-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This project evaluates the effectiveness of using portable X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) to detect soil composition matrices that show patterns of anthropogenic influence. We explore 26 areas within Los Angeles County, California, that have various amounts of traffic; classifying each locale as Urban or Recreational. The main elements of interest are copper and palladium. These indicators are largely [...]
Undrainable pore spaces comprise half of US groundwater storage
Published: 2025-08-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Groundwater is vital to global freshwater access, streamflow generation, and biogeochemical cycling, but not all groundwater can be drained due to adhesive and capillary forces. Quantifying the proportion of groundwater that can be drained—and is, thus, theoretically recoverable—is critical for characterising groundwater’s role in earth system processes. Unfortunately, estimates of theoretically [...]
Modeling urban traffic heat flux in the Community Earth System Model
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Traffic is a major contributor to anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) in urban areas, amplifying urban heat island effects. However, few Earth system models explicitly represent traffic conditions and their associated heat emissions. This study introduces a new urban traffic module into the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling interactive simulation of traffic-related heat in urban areas. The [...]
The Grand Challenges of WPI-AIMEC: Executive Summary
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biology, Climate, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Marine Biology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Remote Sensing, Sustainability
The ocean has a heat capacity 1,000 times greater than that of the atmosphere and stores 50 times more carbon comparatively, thus, constituting a major sink of anthropogenically released greenhouse gases. Warming effects of human activities on the climate system are now undeniably shown to impact marine life and ecosystems, both directly via warming of the ocean and/or indirectly altering ocean [...]
An Ice Core Snapshot of Past Atmospheric Chemistry in Mt. Everest’s 'Death Zone'
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Glaciology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a unique atmospheric chemistry record from the highest ice core ever recovered (8020 m, South Col Glacier (SCG), Mt. Everest), that captures ~400 years of deposition during the latter half of the first millennium BCE. Due to recent glacier thinning, the upper ~2000 years of accumulation have been lost, however, this is the only ice core record ever recovered from the “Death Zone [...]
Geological CO2 Storage in Poland: Review of Sequestration Potential, Policy Development, and Socio-Economic Factors
Published: 2025-08-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Poland's coal-reliant economy faces challenges in meeting European Union climate mandates. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is pivotal for decarbonizing high-emission sectors (e.g., cement, chemicals, refineries, and steel), enabling substantial CO_2 emission reductions while sustaining industrial competitiveness. This multidisciplinary review assesses Poland's CO_2 storage potential, integrating [...]
Prioritizing wildfire fuel management in California
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The resources available for managing wildfire risk are insufficient and ultimately finite, while the risk of catastrophic fires is enormous and growing. Prioritization of responses is thus critical, but the basis for comparing the costs and societal benefits of alternative investments in wildfire mitigation is inadequate. Here, we assess and compare the costs of landscape-scale fuel treatment in [...]
Artificial Intelligence in Earth Science: A GeoAI Perspective
Published: 2025-08-03
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
GeoAI, or geospatial artificial intelligence, has transformative potential for Earth science by integrating geospatial data with artificial intelligence to enhance environmental monitoring, predictive modeling, and decision-making. This commentary, based on the Greg Leptoukh Lecture at AGU 2024, explores the evolving role of GeoAI in addressing pressing challenges—from environmental change in the [...]
Classifying Climate Benefits and Addressing Trade-offs of Timber Use in Buildings for Voluntary Carbon Markets and the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework
Published: 2025-07-31
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Materials Science and Engineering, Other Engineering, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Timber use in construction is increasingly promoted as a climate mitigation option due to its potential for carbon storage and material substitution. Current classifications often conflate storage with carbon removal, risking misalignment with voluntary carbon market integrity frameworks and the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework. This paper evaluates the scientific and methodological [...]
Experiments to Systematically Evaluate the Role of Cohesion in River Morphodynamics
Published: 2025-07-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Environmental Sciences, Materials Science and Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Other Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
While cohesion is thought to be an important control on sediment transport, few studies have systematically examined the role of cohesion in river morphodynamics. In this study we use simplified, small-scale laboratory experiments to investigate how increasing sediment cohesion affects the morphometrics of fluvial channels. Experiments were conducted in a laminar flume with a mixture of [...]