Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability
Fractal Tomography and the Fisher Information Barrier of Seismicity: Addressing the Origin of Dual Paradoxes via Precision-Calibrated Bayesian Inference
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Non-linear Dynamics, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
The spatial organization of seismicity presents dual multi-decade paradoxes: (1) earthquake catalogs exhibit quasi-planar correlation dimensions (D2 ≈ 2.0–2.6) despite volumetric lithospheric deformation (geometric projection paradox), and (2) Bayesian inference systematically yields D3 ≈ 3.0 contradicting structural geology (Bayesian saturation paradox). We address both through the Fractal [...]
Multi-Sensor Monitoring of Wetland Inundation Using a Machine Learning and Data Fusion Framework
Published: 2026-04-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Continuous, high-resolution inundation data are needed to understand how small-scale, short-term wetland flooding influences global methane emissions and carbon cycling. Small (less than 1,000 m²), variably inundated wetlands are significant methane sources, yet coarse satellite products often miss their dynamics. Integrating optical and radar imagery with resolutions less than 30 m offers a [...]
MonteCarlo Biphasic Estimation of Fire Properties (McBEF): Part II, Night-time VIIRS Implementation
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
This study presents the application and global evaluation of the Monte Carlo Biphasic Estimation of Fire Properties (McBEF) algorithm using nighttime observations from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). McBEF extends traditional fire retrieval techniques by partitioning sub-pixel combustion into flaming and smoldering phases, enabling the estimation of phase-specific [...]
MonteCarlo Biphasic Estimation of Fire Properties (McBEF): Part I, Algorithm formulation
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Sub-pixel fire characterization is essential for quantifying wildfire energetics, combustion phase dynamics, and their atmospheric impacts from satellite observations. This study presents a series of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to systematically evaluate the influence of temperature phase complexity, channel selection, and intra-phase temperature heterogeneity on the [...]
mineralML: Leveraging Machine Learning for Probabilistic Mineral Classification
Published: 2026-03-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Volcanology
Characterizing phase assemblages in igneous rocks and the chemical variability within these phases is the fundamental basis of many petrological investigations. We present mineralML (mineral classification using Machine Learning), an open-source Python package that classifies common igneous minerals based on oxide chemical data, with prediction scores. mineralML employs a two-stage neural [...]
Robust Uneven Shift of Extreme Storm Surges Observed in Data Sparse Northeast Indian Ocean Cities
Published: 2026-03-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Reanalysis-driven storm surge datasets enable extreme analysis in data-sparse regions, but most studies translate these time series into extremes using a single statistical model, leaving model-selection uncertainty unquantified. In this study, we analyze ERA5-forced surge residual dataset (1950–2024) from Copernicus Climate Change Service for 11 Northeast Indian Ocean (NIO) cities using an [...]
Probabilistic modelling of pharmaceutical pollution risk from sewage treatment work discharges using a Bayesian Network: application to a Scottish river catchment
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Pharmacology, Toxicology and Environmental Health, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Pharmaceuticals are increasingly recognised as a class of emerging contaminants of concern in rivers. Their continuous release from human use and variable removal in sewage treatment works (STWs) can produce ecologically relevant concentrations and contribute to antimicrobial resistance. We developed a probabilistic catchment-scale model based on a Bayesian Network (BN) to quantify pharmaceutical [...]
Application of statistical downscaling models to assess climate change impacts on the East Rapti River Basin using the Rx5day index
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Statistics and Probability
A landlocked, mountains-dominated country, Nepal is one such country that is highly susceptible to climate change. The East Rapti River Basin (ERRB), a sensitive corridor, is under extreme threats due to flooding as well as rainfall variability. The study aims to evaluate the performance of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in simulating historical rainfall and to project future changes in [...]
Resource expansion with uncertainty quantification of regolith-hosted REE deposits using radiometric data
Published: 2025-12-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Rare earth elements (REE) are critical raw materials due to their essential role in modern technologies. In regolith-hosted REE (RH-REE) deposits a substantial fraction of the REE is present as ionically adsorbed, exchangeable cations on secondary clay minerals and amenable to mild extraction routes potentially being less environmentally disruptive than conventional hard-rock REE operations. [...]
Multi-Planar Hierarchy in Pan-American Seismic Fractality: A Bayesian Resolution to the Projection Paradox
Published: 2025-12-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Earthquake catalogs worldwide exhibit an enduring paradox: seismicity appears confined to planar faults (correlation dimension D2≈ 2.0), yet operates within volumetric lithospheric deformation. We resolve this paradox through Bayesian fractal analysis of 50,010 earthquakes across seven Pan-American tectonic regimes (2010–2025), revealing that apparent planarity reflects instrumental projection [...]
A generalized additive mixed-effect modeling approach for characterizing Sentinel-2 surface reflectances of visible light from Torch Lake in Antrim County, Michigan, 2019-2025
Published: 2025-11-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability
A generalized additive model (GAM) and three generalized additive mixed-effect models (GAMMs) were developed and compared to describe variations of surface reflectances of visible light from Torch Lake in the blue, green, and red bands from Sentinel 2 satellite imagery. All models included fixed effects associated with water-depth intervals, satellite orbits, trend, and smooth effects associated [...]
The Tocantins Framework: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment of Intra-urban Thermal Anomalies
Published: 2025-11-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has been extensively studied at the city scale. Yet, the Intra-Urban Heat Island and the Intra-Urban Cool Island effects remain poorly characterized due to the absence of standardized quantification frameworks. This study introduces the Tocantins Framework, a dual-metric system combining machine learning and spatial morphology to identify and quantify [...]
Climate factors related to the dengue incidence in Costa Rica and future projections under scenario SSP5-8.5.
Published: 2025-10-24
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistics and Probability
This article has three objectives: 1) modeling the climate-dengue relationship at the smallest administrative division (districts) using high-resolution data; 2) use of an objective algorithm for the selection of predictors that results in parsimonious models, cross-validated to prevent overfitting; and 3) using estimates from CMIP6 climate models to provide mid-century (2035-2065) potential [...]
Classifying Climate Benefits and Addressing Trade-offs of Timber Use in Buildings for Voluntary Carbon Markets and the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework
Published: 2025-07-31
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Materials Science and Engineering, Other Engineering, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Timber use in construction is increasingly promoted as a climate mitigation option due to its potential for carbon storage and material substitution. Current classifications often conflate storage with carbon removal, risking misalignment with voluntary carbon market integrity frameworks and the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework. This paper evaluates the scientific and methodological [...]
Assessing uncertainty in source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling: Application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]