Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability
A consistent terminology to communicate ground-related uncertainty
Published: 2024-03-26
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Engineering geology is highly affected by uncertainty related to the geology, geotechnical parameters, models used and methods. While the technical aspects of ground-related uncertainty are increasingly investigated, the terminology to communicate uncertainty (i.e. phrases such as “it is very likely that”) has not yet been unified and experts use it however they see fit. The problem arises that [...]
The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California
Published: 2024-02-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]
Designing and describing climate change impact attribution studies: a guide to common approaches
Published: 2024-01-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Public Health, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Impact attribution is an emerging transdisciplinary sub-discipline of detection and attribution, focused on the social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change. Here, we provide an overview of common end-to-end frameworks in impact attribution, focusing on examples relating to the human health impacts of climate change. We propose a typology of study designs based on whether [...]
Transgression–regression cycles drive correlations in Ediacaran–Cambrian rock and fossil records
Published: 2023-11-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
Strata of the Ediacaran Period (635–538.8 Ma) yield the oldest known fossils of complex, macroscopic organisms in the geologic record. These “Ediacaran-type” macrofossils (known as the Ediacaran biota) first appear in mid-Ediacaran strata, experience an apparent decline through the terminal Ediacaran, and directly precede the Cambrian (538.8–485.4 Ma) radiation of animals. Existing hypotheses for [...]
Understanding Drought Awareness from Web Data
Published: 2023-08-17
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistics and Probability
We used computer vision (U-Net) model to leverage Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Google Trends Search Interest (SI), and Twitter data to understand patterns with which people in Continental United States (CONUS) indicate awareness of and interest in droughts. We found significant statistical relationships between the occurrence of meteorological droughts (MD), as [...]
Performance evaluation of a simple feed-forward deep neural network model applied to annual rainfall anomaly index (RAI) over Indramayu, Indonesia
Published: 2023-06-30
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Indramayu is a district in West Java that is known for being the leading producer of rice and brackish salt. The production of these two commodities is strongly influenced by hydroclimatological conditions, making accurate and reliable long-term estimates crucial. In this study, we evaluated a simple feed-forward deep neural network (DNN) model that could potentially be used as a candidate for [...]
A theory of stochastic fluvial landscape evolution
Published: 2023-06-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Geometries of eroding landscapes contain important information about geologic, climatic, biotic and geomorphic processes. They are also characterised by variability, which makes disentangling their origins challenging. Observations and physical models of fluvial processes, which set the pace of erosion on most continents, emphasise complexity and variability. In contrast, the spectral content of [...]
Explainable Machine Learning for Hydrocarbon Prospect Risking
Published: 2023-06-20
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Statistics and Probability
Hydrocarbon prospect risking integrates information from multiple geophysical data and modalities to arrive at a probability of success for a given prospect. The DHI database of drilled prospects gathers data from prospects drilled around the world in multiple geologic settings in one central knowledge base. A major goal of interest to geophysicists is to understand the impact of various seismic [...]
A new OSL dose model to account for post-depositional mixing of sediments
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
In applications of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to unconsolidated sediments, the burial age of a sample of grains is estimated using statistical models of the distribution of the experimentally determined equivalent doses of the grains, together with estimates of the environmental dose rate. For grains that have been vertically mixed after deposition (e.g., due to bioturbation), [...]
Carbon Utilization and Storage through Rehabilitation of Groundwater Wells
Published: 2023-05-21
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations (UN), rise in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to anthropogenic factors is considered as the primary driver for global climate change. With almost every major corporation around the world working towards their “net-zero goals”, it is becoming increasingly important to have more [...]
Understanding and Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting from Extreme Heat Exposure due to Lack of Tree Canopies in Norfolk, VA using Agent-Based Modeling
Published: 2023-03-31
Subjects: Biodiversity, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature [...]
The applicability of G-BASE stream sediment geochemistry as a combined geological mapping, and prospective exploration tool for As-Co-Cu-Ni mineralisation across Cumbria, UK.
Published: 2023-01-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Multivariate Analysis, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Stream sediment geochemistry is a useful tool to analyse the geochemistry of the local geology within the source catchment area. This has significant applicability within the field of mineral exploration where understanding regional lithological geochemistry is needed, facilitating the identification of critical metal deposits. Successful identification of these deposits is essential to help [...]
From ground motion simulations to landslide occurrence prediction
Published: 2023-01-17
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Ground motion simulations solve wave equations in space and time, thus producing detailed estimates of the shaking time series. This is essentially uncharted territory for geomorphologists, for we have yet to understand which ground motion (synthetic or not) parameter, or combination of parameters, is more suitable to explain the coseismic landslide distribution. To address this gap, we developed [...]
Technical note: A procedure to clean, decompose and aggregate time series
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Errors, gaps and outliers complicate and sometimes invalidate the analysis of time series. While most fields have developed their own strategy to clean the raw data, no generic procedure has been promoted to standardize the pre-processing. This lack of harmonization makes the inter-comparison of studies difficult, and leads to screening methods that can be arbitrary or case-specific. This study [...]
Bayesian analysis of ground motion models using chimney fragility curves: 2021, 5.9-Mw Woods Point intraplate earthquake, Victoria, Australia
Published: 2022-11-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability
The 22 September 2021 (AEST) Mw 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred in an intraplate setting (southeast Australia) approximately 130 km East Northeast of the central business district of Melbourne (pop. ∼5.15 million). A lack of seismic instrumentation and a low population density in the epicentral region resulted in a dearth of near-source instrumental and “felt” report intensity data, limiting [...]