Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability

Study on the Assessment of the Development Level of Digital Economy in the Yellow River Basin Economic Zone and the Evolution of Time and Space

Liang Wu, Zengzheng Li, Zhentao Gu, et al.

Published: 2024-05-01
Subjects: Statistics and Probability

Based on the Statistical Classification of the Digital Economy and Its Core Industries (2021) and considering the characteristics of the Yellow River Basin Economic Belt, this paper selects 25 secondary indicators from 5 dimensions (digital infrastructure, digital industrialization, industrial digitization, digital innovation and agricultural modernization). A scientific and practical evaluation [...]

Estimating the mass eruption rate of volcanic eruptions from the plume height using Bayesian regression with historical data: the MERPH model

Mark James Woodhouse

Published: 2024-04-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Volcanology

The mass eruption rate (MER) of an explosive volcanic eruption is a commonly used quantifier of the magnitude of the eruption, and estimating it is importance in managing volcanic hazards. The physical connection between the MER and the rise height of the eruption column results in a scaling relationship between these quantities, allowing one to be inferred from the other. Eruption source [...]

A consistent terminology to communicate ground-related uncertainty

Georg H. Erharter, Suzanne Lacasse, Franz Tschuchnigg

Published: 2024-03-26
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability

Engineering geology is highly affected by uncertainty related to the geology, geotechnical parameters, models used and methods. While the technical aspects of ground-related uncertainty are increasingly investigated, the terminology to communicate uncertainty (i.e. phrases such as “it is very likely that”) has not yet been unified and experts use it however they see fit. The problem [...]

The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California

Patrick T Brown, Scott Strenfel, Richard B. Bagley, et al.

Published: 2024-02-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]

Designing and describing climate change impact attribution studies: a guide to common approaches

Colin J Carlson, Dann Mitchell, Tamma Carleton, et al.

Published: 2024-01-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Public Health, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Impact attribution is an emerging transdisciplinary sub-discipline of detection and attribution, focused on the social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change. Here, we provide an overview of common end-to-end frameworks in impact attribution, focusing on examples relating to the human health impacts of climate change. We propose a typology of study designs based on whether [...]

Transgression–regression cycles drive correlations in Ediacaran–Cambrian rock and fossil records

Daniel C Segessenman, Shanan E Peters

Published: 2023-11-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy

Strata of the Ediacaran Period (635–538.8 Ma) yield the oldest known fossils of complex, macroscopic organisms in the geologic record. These “Ediacaran-type” macrofossils (known as the Ediacaran biota) first appear in mid-Ediacaran strata, experience an apparent decline through the terminal Ediacaran, and directly precede the Cambrian (538.8–485.4 Ma) radiation of animals. Existing hypotheses for [...]

Understanding Drought Awareness from Web Data

Mashrekur Rahman, Samuel Sandoval Solis, Thomas Harter, et al.

Published: 2023-08-17
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistics and Probability

We used computer vision (U-Net) model to leverage Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Google Trends Search Interest (SI), and Twitter data to understand patterns with which people in Continental United States (CONUS) indicate awareness of and interest in droughts. We found significant statistical relationships between the occurrence of meteorological droughts (MD), as [...]

Performance evaluation of a simple feed-forward deep neural network model applied to annual rainfall anomaly index (RAI) over Indramayu, Indonesia

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Dasapta Erwin Irawan, Faiz Rohman Fajary, et al.

Published: 2023-06-30
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Water Resource Management

Indramayu is a district in West Java that is known for being the leading producer of rice and brackish salt. The production of these two commodities is strongly influenced by hydroclimatological conditions, making accurate and reliable long-term estimates crucial. In this study, we evaluated a simple feed-forward deep neural network (DNN) model that could potentially be used as a candidate for [...]

A theory of stochastic fluvial landscape evolution

Gareth G Roberts, Omar Wani

Published: 2023-06-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Geometries of eroding landscapes contain important information about geologic, climatic, biotic and geomorphic processes. They are also characterised by variability, which makes disentangling their origins challenging. Observations and physical models of fluvial processes, which set the pace of erosion on most continents, emphasise complexity and variability. In contrast, the spectral content of [...]

Explainable Machine Learning for Hydrocarbon Prospect Risking

Ahmad Mustafa, Ghassan AlRegib, Klaas Koster

Published: 2023-06-20
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Statistics and Probability

Hydrocarbon prospect risking integrates information from multiple geophysical data and modalities to arrive at a probability of success for a given prospect. The DHI database of drilled prospects gathers data from prospects drilled around the world in multiple geologic settings in one central knowledge base. A major goal of interest to geophysicists is to understand the impact of various seismic [...]

A new OSL dose model to account for post-depositional mixing of sediments

Luke Andrew Yates, Zach Aandahl, Barry W. Brook, et al.

Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

In applications of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to unconsolidated sediments, the burial age of a sample of grains is estimated using statistical models of the distribution of the experimentally determined equivalent doses of the grains, together with estimates of the environmental dose rate. For grains that have been vertically mixed after deposition (e.g., due to bioturbation), [...]

Carbon Utilization and Storage through Rehabilitation of Groundwater Wells

Vivek Vidyadhar Patil, Gabriella Basso, Steven Catania, et al.

Published: 2023-05-20
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations (UN), rise in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to anthropogenic factors is considered as the primary driver for global climate change. With almost every major corporation around the world working towards their “net-zero goals”, it is becoming increasingly important to have more [...]

Understanding and Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting from Extreme Heat Exposure due to Lack of Tree Canopies in Norfolk, VA using Agent-Based Modeling

Virginia Zamponi, Kevin Obrien, Erik Jensen, et al.

Published: 2023-03-31
Subjects: Biodiversity, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature [...]

The applicability of G-BASE stream sediment geochemistry as a combined geological mapping, and prospective exploration tool for As-Co-Cu-Ni mineralisation across Cumbria, UK.

Adam Eskdale, Sean Johnson, Amy Gough

Published: 2023-01-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Multivariate Analysis, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Stream sediment geochemistry is a useful tool to analyse the geochemistry of the local geology within the source catchment area. This has significant applicability within the field of mineral exploration where understanding regional lithological geochemistry is needed, facilitating the identification of critical metal deposits. Successful identification of these deposits is essential to help [...]

From ground motion simulations to landslide occurrence prediction

Ashok Dahal, David Alejandro Casto Cruz, Hakan Tanyas, et al.

Published: 2023-01-17
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Ground motion simulations solve wave equations in space and time, thus producing detailed estimates of the shaking time series. This is essentially uncharted territory for geomorphologists, for we have yet to understand which ground motion (synthetic or not) parameter, or combination of parameters, is more suitable to explain the coseismic landslide distribution. To address this gap, we developed [...]

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