Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Statistics and Probability

Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression

Andrew Poppick, Karen A. McKinnon

Published: 2020-05-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The human impacts of changes in heat events depend on changes in the joint behavior of temperature and humidity. Little is currently known about these complex joint changes, either in observations or projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Further, GCMs do not fully reproduce the observed joint distribution, implying a need for simulation methods that combine information from GCMs [...]

A newly reconciled data set for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay

Amin Shoari Nejad, Andrew Parnell, Alice Greene, et al.

Published: 2020-05-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability

We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938 to 2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea [...]

Probabilistic soil moisture dynamics of water- and energy-limited ecosystems

Estefanía Muñoz, Andrés Ochoa, Germán Poveda, et al.

Published: 2020-05-17
Subjects: Agriculture, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Life Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Plant Sciences, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

This paper presents an extension of the stochastic ecohydrological model for soil moisture dynamics at a point of Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1999) and Laio et al. (2001). In the original model, evapotranspiration is a function of soil moisture and vegetation parameters, so that the model is suitable for water-limited environments. Our extension introduces a dependence on maximum evapotranspiration [...]

Three Common Statistical Missteps We Make in Reservoir Characterization

Frank Male, Jerry L. Jensen

Published: 2020-05-11
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability

Reservoir characterization analysis resulting from incorrect applications of statistics can be found in the literature, particularly in applications where integration of various disciplines is needed. Here, we look at three misapplications of ordinary least squares linear regression (LSLR) and show how they can lead to poor results and offer better alternatives, where available. The issues are [...]

Comparison of permeability predictions on cemented sandstones with physics-based and machine learning approaches

Frank Male, Jerry L. Jensen, Larry W. Lake

Published: 2020-02-06
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Permeability prediction has been an important problem since the time of Darcy. Most approaches to solve this problem have used either idealized physical models or empirical relations. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has led to more accurate and robust, but less interpretable empirical models. Using 211 core samples collected from 12 wells in the Garn Sandstone from the North Sea, this [...]

Evaluating the INLA-SPDE approach for Bayesian modeling of earthquake damages from geolocated cluster data

Bradley Wilson

Published: 2020-01-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Modeled damage estimates are an important source of information in the hours to weeks following major earthquake disasters, but often lack sufficient spatial resolution for highlighting specific areas of need. Using damage assessment data from the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake, this paper evaluates a Bayesian spatial model (INLA-SPDE) for interpolating geolocated damage survey data onto 1 km2 [...]

Advanced ML and AI Approaches for Proxy-based Optimization of CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery in Heterogeneous Clastic Reservoirs

Watheq J Al-Mudhafar, Dandina N Rao, Sanjay Srinivasan

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Multivariate Analysis, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Programming Languages and Compilers, Statistics and Probability

Constructing a simpler model to represent a complex reservoir simulation that will be employed to define the optimum future development plans have been achieved through the use of different simulation techniques that include EOS-compositional reservoir simulation, Proxy Modeling as well as Design of Experiments. Once reliable history matching was achieved, the key five operational decision [...]

A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula

Armand Hernández, Guiomar Sánchez-López, Sergi Pla-Rabes, et al.

Published: 2019-11-26
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of [...]

Deep Unsupervised 4D Seismic 3D Time-Shift Estimation with Convolutional Neural Networks

Jesper Sören Dramsch, Anders Nymark Christensen, Colin MacBeth, et al.

Published: 2019-10-31
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

We present a novel 3D warping technique for the estimation of 4D seismic time-shift. This unsupervised method provides a diffeomorphic 3D time shift field that includes uncertainties, therefore it does not need prior time-shift data to be trained. This results in a widely applicable method in time-lapse seismic data analysis. We explore the generalization of the method to unseen data both in the [...]

Controls on the development and termination of failed continental rifts: Insights from the crustal structure and rifting style of the North Sea via ambient noise tomography

Emily Crowder, Nick Rawlinson, David Cornwell, et al.

Published: 2019-09-21
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability

The mid to lower crust plays an important role in rift initiation and evolution, particularly when large scale sutures and/or terrane boundaries are present. These inherited features can focus strain or act as inhibitors to extensional deformation. Ancient tectonic features are known to exist beneath the iconic failed rift system of the North Sea making it the ideal location to investigate the [...]

Paradoxical impact of sprawling intra-Urban Heat Islets: Reducing mean surface temperatures while enhancing local extremes

Anamika Shreevastava, Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Gavan McGrath, et al.

Published: 2019-09-09
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Cities are at the forefront of climate change impacts and face a growing burden of adaptation to ensuing natural hazards. Extreme heat is a particularly challenging hazard as persistent heatwaves are locally exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. As a result, there is an increasing scientific interest in the influence of diverse urban morphologies on UHI. However, as the temperatures [...]

Emergent self-similarity and scaling properties of fractal intra-Urban Heat Islets for diverse global cities

Anamika Shreevastava, P. Suresh C. Rao, Gavan McGrath

Published: 2019-09-02
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Urban areas experience elevated temperatures due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. However, temperatures within cities vary considerably and their spatial heterogeneity is not well characterized. Here, we use Land Surface Temperature (LST) of 78 global cities to show that the Surface UHI (SUHI) is fractal. We use percentile-based thermal thresholds to identify heat clusters emerging within [...]

A mechanistic erosion model for cosmogenic nuclide inheritance in fluvial single-clast exposure ages

Veronica Prush, Michael E. Oskin

Published: 2019-08-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCNs), produced by the bombardment of Earth’s surface by cosmic rays, are widely used for age-dating and pacing surface processes. Sediments carry an inherited TCN concentration, useful for quantifying erosion and transport rates, but that must be subtracted when age-dating sedimentary landforms, such as alluvial fans. Here we present a mechanistic model of [...]

Tornado damage ratings estimated with cumulative logistic regression

James B Elsner, Zoe Schroder Searcy

Published: 2019-07-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Empirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for [...]

Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust inferred from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling

Luca Dal Zilio, Romain Jolivet, Ylona van Dinther

Published: 2019-07-04
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

Mapping the distribution of locked segments along subduction megathrusts is essential for improving quantitative assessments of seismic hazard. Previous geodetic studies suggest the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is homogeneously locked (or coupled) along its complete length over a down-dip extent of ~100 km. However, an increasing number of seismological and geophysical observations suggests the [...]

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