Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Statistical Models
Space-time landslide susceptibility modelling in Taiwan
Published: 2022-07-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Geomorphology, Multivariate Analysis, Statistical Models
Portraying spatiotemporal variations in landslide susceptibility patterns is crucial for landslide prevention and management. In this study, we implement a space-time modeling approach to predict the landslide susceptibility on a yearly basis across the main island of Taiwan, from 2004 to 2018. We use a Bayesian version of a binomial generalized additive model, which assumes that landslide [...]
Hybrid Machine Learning for Integrating Pedological Knowledge into Digital Soil Mapping to Advance Next-Generation Earth System Models
Published: 2022-07-22
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Soil Science, Statistical Models
Land surface and Earth System models require reliable soil maps to represent the influence of spatial variability of soil properties on ecosystem fluxes and storages. However, mapping soils using conventional in situ survey protocols is time-consuming and costly. We addressed the outdated spatial information on soil physico-chemical properties for a tropical region with a ~700-km longitudinal [...]
The Lock-Down Effects of COVID-19 on the Air Pollution Indices in Iran and Its Neighbors
Published: 2022-07-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Near and Middle Eastern Studies, Other Statistics and Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Introduction The Covid-19 restrictions have a lot of various peripheral negative and positive effects like economic shocks and decreasing air pollution, respectively. Many studies showed NO2 reduction in most parts of the world. Method Iran and its land and maritime neighbors have about 7.4% of the world population and 6.3% and 5.8% of World COVID-19 cases and deaths, respectively. The air [...]
Towards Robust River Plastic Detection: Combining Lab and Field-based Hyperspectral Imagery
Published: 2022-06-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Statistical Models
Plastic pollution in aquatic ecosystems has increased dramatically in the last five decades, with strong impacts on human and aquatic life. Recent studies endorse the need for innovative approaches to monitor the presence, abundance, and types of plastic in these ecosystems. One approach gaining rapid traction is the use of multi- and hyperspectral cameras. However, most experiments using this [...]
Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Thorough characterization of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important to understand the place of aerial measurement technologies in alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP); monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts; and surveys designed to support [...]
Reducing the Uncertainty of Multi-Well Petrophysical Interpretation from Well Logs via Machine-Learning and Statistical Models
Published: 2022-03-22
Subjects: Analysis, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geophysics and Seismology, Mining Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Well-log interpretation provides in situ estimates of formation properties such as porosity, hydrocarbon pore volume, and permeability. Reservoir models based on well-log-derived formation properties deliver reserve-volume estimates, production forecasts, and help with decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs due to multiple [...]
Wildfire Smoke Exposure Worsens Learning Outcomes
Published: 2021-12-08
Subjects: Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Statistical Models
Wildfires have increased in frequency and severity over the past two decades, threatening to undo substantial air quality improvements. We investigate the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on learning outcomes across the US using standardized test scores from 2009-2016 for nearly 11,700 school districts and satellite-derived estimates of daily smoke exposure. Relative to a school year with no [...]
Estuarine-deltaic controls on coastal carbon burial in the western Ganges-Brahmaputra delta over the last 5,000 years
Published: 2021-11-26
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
The Ganges–Brahmaputra fluvial system drains the Himalayas and is one of the largest sources of terrestrial biosphere carbon to the ocean. It represents a major continental reservoir of CO2 associated with c. 1–2 billion tons of sediment transported each year. Shallow coastal environments receive substantial inputs of terrestrial carbon (900 Tg C yr−1), with allochthonous carbon capture on [...]
C3S Energy: an operational service to deliver power demand and supply for different electricity sources, time and spatial scales over Europe
Published: 2021-11-17
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Statistical Models
The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past forty years and the future. It provides time series of electricity [...]
Beyond prediction: methods for interpreting complex models of soil variation
Published: 2021-10-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Soil Science, Statistical Models
Understanding the spatial variation of soil properties is central to many sub-disciplines of soil science. Commonly in soil mapping studies, a soil map is constructed through prediction by a statistical or non-statistical model calibrated with measured values of the soil property and environmental covariates of which maps are available. In recent years, the field has gradually shifted attention [...]
Exposures and behavioral responses to wildfire smoke
Published: 2021-10-12
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Statistical Models
The impacts of environmental change on human outcomes often depend on local exposures and behavioral responses that are challenging to observe with traditional administrative or sensor data. We show how data from private pollution sensors, cell phones, social media posts, and internet search activity yield new insights on exposures and behavioral responses during large wildfire smoke events [...]
Interpretable Models Capture the Complex Relationship Between Climate Indices and Fire Season Intensity in Maritime Southeast Asia
Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Statistical Models
There have been many extreme fire seasons in Maritime Southeast Asia (MSEA) over the last two decades, a trend which will likely continue or accelerate due to climate change. Fires, in turn, are a major driver of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variability, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we attempt to maximize the amount of CO variability that can be explained via [...]
The Rayleigh-Haring-Tayfun distribution of wave heights in deep water
Published: 2021-01-17
Subjects: Engineering, Fluid Dynamics, Hydraulic Engineering, Oceanography, Statistical Models
Regarding wave statistics, nearly every known exceeding probability distribution applied to rogue waves has shown disagreement with its peers. More often than not, models and experiments have shown a fair agreement with the Rayleigh distribution whereas others show that the latter underpredicts extreme heights by almost one order of magnitude. Virtually all previous results seem to be [...]
Bias correction of global climate model using machine learning algorithms to determine meteorological variables in different tropical climates of Indonesia
Published: 2020-12-11
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Statistical Models
Accurate and localized forecasting of climate variables are important especially in the face of uncertainty imposed by climate change. However, the data used for prediction are either incomplete at the local level or inaccurate because the simulation models do not explicitly consider local contexts and extreme events. This paper, therefore, attempts to bridge this gap by applying tree-based [...]
Sedimentary structures discriminations with hyperspectral imaging on sediment cores
Published: 2020-07-17
Subjects: Analytical Chemistry, Chemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Multivariate Analysis, Optics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Sedimentology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) is a non-destructive high-resolution sensor, which is currently under significant development to analyze geological areas with remote devices or natural samples in a laboratory. In both cases, the hyperspectral image provides several sedimentary structures that need to be separated to temporally and spatially describe the sample. Sediment sequences are composed of [...]