Preprints
There are 5472 Preprints listed.
Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]
Benchmarking a two-way coupled coastal wave-current hydrodynamics model
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Engineering
Wave-current interaction phenomena are often represented through coupled model frameworks in ocean modelling. However, the benchmarking of these models is scarce, revealing a substantial research challenge. We seek to address this through a selection of benchmark cases for coupled wave-current interaction modelling frameworks. This comprises a series of analytical and experimental test cases [...]
Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.1T and $5.7T in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 [...]
Constraining flow and sediment transport intermittency in the geological past
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantitative investigations of ancient rivers usually provide insights into either instantaneous or mean flow conditions. There is a critical gap between these timescales of investigation which reflects the intermittency of flow and sediment transport, and closing this gap is crucial to fully explore the dynamics and evolution of ancient fluvial landscapes. Here, we combine fluvial stratigraphic [...]
SWAT model-based quantification of the impact of land use change on sediment yield in the Fincha watershed, Ethiopia
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In recent years, Ethiopia is facing problems due to soil erosion, mainly because of the conversion of natural vegetation cover into cultivated land. Soil erosion is also affecting dam reservoirs, which are threatened by an increase in sediment yield entering the lake. The present study focuses on the Ethiopian Fincha watershed and takes advantage of the potentiality of SWAT, to investigate how [...]
Standardised indices to monitor energy droughts
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
To mitigate the effects of climate change, energy systems are becoming increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources. Since these energy sources are typically dependent on the prevailing weather, renewable energy systems are susceptible to shortages during certain weather conditions. As renewable sources become larger contributors to the energy mix, the risks associated with these shortages, [...]
Laboratory validation of a new hydro-mechanical energy-based brittleness index model for hydraulic fracturing
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Mining Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Petroleum Engineering
Brittleness Index (BI) is a critical parameter characterising the deformation regime of geo-materials, covering the range from purely brittle (fractures) to ductile (plastic flow). A variety of BI models have been developed based on rock properties such as mineralogy, elastic parameters, or stress-strain data. However, very few of them are based on the deformation induced by hydro-mechanical [...]
The Paleozoic Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt: its geodynamic and tectonic interpretation based on Paleogeographic reconstructions
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the southwestern margin of the North Patagonian Massif there is a NW26 SE belt of igneous and metamorphic rocks defining a limit between the North Patagonian Massif and southern Patagonia (including the Deseado Massif), named the Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt (CPIMB). The objective of this paper is to better understand the geodynamic and tectonic processes that generated its [...]
Comment on "Estimates on the Frequency of Volcanic Eruptions on Venus" by Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022)
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Other Planetary Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences
Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022) estimated the frequency of volcanic eruptions on Venus by scaling the eruption frequency obtained from a database containing Earth data. In reproducing their study, I found that the estimated number of new and ongoing volcanic eruptions on Venus in a given year is approximately 42, instead of the previously reported 120 eruptions. This updated estimate of Byrne & [...]
Barometers behaving badly: Assessing the influence of analytical and experimental uncertainty on clinopyroxene thermobarometry calculations at crustal conditions
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Mineral Physics, Volcanology
The composition of clinopyroxene and Clinopyroxene-Liquid (Cpx-Liq) pairs are frequently used to calculate crystallization/equilibration pressures in igneous systems. While canonical uncertainties are often assigned to calculated pressures based on fits to calibration or test datasets, the sources of these uncertainties (and thus ways to reduce them) have not been rigorously assessed. We show [...]
The highly nonlinear viscosity of fast-flowing glacier ice
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Glaciology
Glacier flow modulates sea level and is governed by the viscous deformation of ice. Multiple molecular-scale mechanisms facilitate viscous deformation, but it remains unclear how each contributes to glacier-scale deformation and how to represent them in ice-flow models. Here, we present a model of ice deformation that unifies existing estimates of the viscous parameters and provides a framework [...]
Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction
Published: 2022-11-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The technique is termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT). The generated perturbations are independent between different model [...]
The small-amplitude dynamics of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis
Published: 2022-11-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Cloud-permitting simulations have shown that tropical cyclones can form spontaneously in a quiescent environment with uniform sea surface temperature. While the moisture-radiation instability is known as the main mechanism for early-stage growth, two key questions remain unresolved: First, how does the noisy cumulus cloud field organize into a mesoscale perturbation? Second, what determines the [...]
Call for collaboration: Benchmark datasets for landslide susceptibility zonation
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide susceptibility, the spatial likelihood of occurrence of landslides in a specific geographical area, is the subject of countless scientific publications. Different authors use heterogeneous data, and apply many different methods, mostly falling under the definition of statistical and/or machine learning approaches, with the common feature of considering many input variables and a single [...]
A Stacked Machine Learning Algorithm for Multi-Step Ahead Prediction of Soil Moisture
Published: 2022-11-22
Subjects: Engineering
A trustworthy assessment of soil moisture content plays a significant role in irrigation planning and in controlling various natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and droughts. Various Machine Learning Models (MLMs) have been used to increase the accuracy of soil moisture content prediction. The present investigation aims to apply MLMs with novel structures for the estimation of daily [...]