Preprints
There are 4724 Preprints listed.
Hydroclimatic adaptation critical to the resilience of tropical forests
Published: 2021-09-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Forest Biology, Hydrology, Remote Sensing
Forest and savanna ecosystems naturally exist as alternative stable states. The maximum capacity of these ecosystems to absorb perturbations without transitioning to the other alternative stable state is referred to as ‘resilience’. Previous studies have determined the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to hydroclimatic changes predominantly based on space-for-time substitution. This [...]
Shear-wave Anisotropy in the Earth’s Inner Core
Published: 2021-09-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth’s inner core anisotropy is widely used to infer the deep Earth's evolution and present dynamics. Many compressional-wave anisotropy models have been proposed based on seismological observations. In contrast, inner-core shear-wave (J-wave) anisotropy – on a par with the compressional-wave anisotropy – has been elusive. Here we present a new class of the J-wave anisotropy observations [...]
Changes in deep groundwater flow patterns related to oil and gas
Published: 2021-09-17
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large volumes of saline formation water are both produced from and injected into sedimentary basins as a by-product of oil and gas production. Despite this, the location of production and injection wells has not been studied in detail at the regional scale and the effects on deep groundwater flow patterns (i.e. below the base of groundwater protection) possibly driving fluid flow towards shallow [...]
Upper Plate Structure and Tsunamigenic Faults near the Kodiak Islands, Alaska
Published: 2021-09-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Kodiak Islands lie near the southern terminus of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake rupture area and within the Kodiak subduction zone segment. Both local and trans-Pacific tsunamis were generated during this devastating megathrust event, but the local tsunami source region and the causative faults are poorly understood. We provide an updated view of the tsunami and earthquake hazard for the [...]
Analogue modelling of the interplay between gravity gliding and spreading across complex rift topography in the Santos Basin
Published: 2021-09-17
Subjects: Geology, Tectonics and Structure
The Santos Basin presents a complex and controversial evolution and distribution of salt tectonics domains. The controversies revolve mainly around the kinematically- linked Albian Gap and São Paulo Plateau. The Albian Gap is a ~450 km long and 60 km wide feature characterized by a post-Albian counter-regional rollover overlying depleted Aptian salt and in which the Albian is absent. The São [...]
Selling the Earth: re-purposing geoscience communications
Published: 2021-09-17
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth scientists have a critical role to play in communicating to the public and policy makers what we know about looming societal threats including climate change, extreme natural events, resource conflicts and the energy transition. But whilst geoscientists are being encouraged - and, increasingly, trained - to ‘go public’ with our science, what is less clear is to what extent our current [...]
The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas
Published: 2021-09-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the electric power across most of Texas. They make short-term assessments of electricity demand based on historical weather over the last decade or two, thereby ignoring the effects of climate change and the possibility of weather variability outside of the recent historical range. In this paper, we develop an empirical methodology to [...]
Stress-based forecasting of induced seismicity with instantaneous earthquake failure functions: Applications to the Groningen Gas Reservoir
Published: 2021-09-15
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
In this study we use the Groningen gas field to test a new method to assess stress changes due to gas extraction and forecast induced seismicity. We take advantage of the detailed knowledge of the reservoir geometry and production history, and of the availability of surface subsidence measurements and high quality seismicity data. The subsurface is represented as a homogeneous isotropic linear [...]
AGE, PETROGENESIS AND TECTONIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE LATE PERMIAN PERALUMINOUS AND METALUMINOUS MAGMATIC ROCKS IN THE MIDDLE GOBI VOLCANOPLUTONIC BELT, MONGOLIA
Published: 2021-09-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Mongol–Okhotsk Belt, the youngest segment of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, formed by the evolution and closure of the Mongol–Okhotsk Ocean. The oceanic closure formed two volcanoplutonic belts: Selenge Belt in the north and Middle Gobi Belt in the south (in present day coordinates). However, the origin and tectonic evolution of the Mongol–Okhotsk Belt in general, the origin and formation [...]
Process drivers, inter-model spread, and the path forward: A review of amplified Arctic warming
Published: 2021-09-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow-ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, [...]
Modeling the Responses of Dissolved Oxygen and Nitrate Concentrations due to Land Use and Land Cover Change Scenarios in a Large Subtropical Reservoir
Published: 2021-09-15
Subjects: Biochemistry, Environmental Engineering, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Itupararanga reservoir is a large reservoir built in the Southeast of Brazil to support multiple uses, mainly hydropower generation and drinking water supply for almost 1 million people. We applied a process-based biogeochemical model and a distributed basin load model to assess the responses of dissolved oxygen and nitrate concentrations in the Itupararanga reservoir based on three land use and [...]
Acquisition of Data for Building Photogrammetric Virtual Outcrop Models for the Geosciences using Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs)
Published: 2021-09-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Over the past five years the use of 3D models in the Earth Sciences has become ubiquitous. These models, termed Virtual outcrops, are most commonly generated using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, an image-based modelling method that has achieved widespread uptake and utilization. Data for these models is commonly acquired using remotely piloted aerial vehicles (RPVs), commonly called [...]
Scum of the Earth: a hypothesis for prebiotic multi-compartmentalised environments}
Published: 2021-09-14
Subjects: Biochemistry, Biophysics, and Structural Biology, Earth Sciences, Planetary Sciences
Compartmentalisation by bioenergetic membranes is a universal feature of life. The eventual compartmentalisation of prebiotic systems is therefore often argued to comprise a key step during the origin of life. Compartments may have been active participants in prebiotic chemistry, concentrating and spatially organising key reactants. However, most prebiotically plausible compartments are leaky or [...]
Discovery of Deccan Inclination Anomaly and its possible geodynamic implications over the Indian Plate
Published: 2021-09-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The rapid northward drift of the Indian plate during Deccan volcanism assumes a gradual shallowing of paleomagnetic inclinations in subsequent lava flow formations. A comparison of palaeomagnetic data produced during the last six decades reveals an inclination anomaly during Chron C29r (66.398 - 65.688 Ma) along with brief clockwise-counter-clockwise rotations during and after the main phase [...]
Three-dimensional fluid-driven stable frictional ruptures
Published: 2021-09-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
We investigate the quasi-static growth of a fluid-driven frictional shear crack that propagates in mixed mode (II+III) on a planar fault interface that separates two identical half-spaces of a three-dimensional solid. The fault interface is characterized by a shear strength equal to the product of a constant friction coefficient and the local effective normal stress. Fluid is injected into the [...]