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Preprints

There are 5729 Preprints listed.

Integrated framework for rapid climate stress testing on a monthly timestep

Keirnan Fowler, Natasha Ballis, Avril Horne, et al.

Published: 2021-12-06
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering

“Bottom-up” methods are increasingly used to assess the vulnerability of water systems to climate change. Central to these methods is the climate “stress test”, where the system is subjected to various climatic changes to test for unacceptable outcomes. We present a framework for climate stress testing on a monthly timestep, suitable for systems whose dominant dynamic is seasonal or longer (eg. [...]

Spatio-temporal clustering of seismicity enabled by off-fault plasticity

Md Shumon Mia, Mohamed Abdelmeguid, Ahmed Elbanna

Published: 2021-12-06
Subjects: Applied Mechanics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dynamics and Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Mechanics, Engineering Science and Materials, Geophysics and Seismology, Mechanical Engineering, Mechanics of Materials, Other Mechanical Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tribology

While significant progress has been made in understanding earthquake source processes in linear elastic domains, the effect of more realistic rheologies including plasticity is poorly understood. Here, we simulate sequence of earthquake and aseismic slip of a 2D antiplane rate-and-state fault embedded in a full-space elastic-plastic bulk. We show that off-fault plasticity may lead to partial [...]

Sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on bimaterial faults show dominant rupture asymmetry and potential for elevated seismic hazard

Mohamed Abdelmeguid, Ahmed Elbanna

Published: 2021-12-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

We perform numerical simulations of sequences of earthquake and aseismic slip on planar rate and state faults separating dissimilar material within the 2-D plane strain approximation. We resolve all stages of the earthquake cycle from aseismic slip to fast ruptures while incorporating full inertia effects during seismic event propagation. We show that bimaterial coupling results in favorable [...]

Soil Excavation pH level Modification

Solomon I Ubani

Published: 2021-12-06
Subjects: Engineering

Territories are becoming new areas for conservationist replanting and forestation. Excavators are capable of producing entrainment s for new reservations. There lacks knowledge of soil conditions and methods of measurement of fertility of the developments. This research improves knowledge on the subject of excavations. To decide on territories which can be a best fit for excavations.

Timing of oil expulsion from source rocks and a revitalization of the pre-1970 model

Per Arne Bjørkum

Published: 2021-12-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

New data from North Sea Upper Jurassic source rock samples show no decline in the total amount of organic matter (TOC) within the oil expulsion window between 120 and 150°C which is a key prediction by today’s model for oil expulsion. However, today’s model for oil expulsion is not consistent with either subsurface source rock TOC data or chemical attributes of shallow oils. Instead, these data [...]

Methane Fluxes of Vegetated Areas in Natural Freshwater Ecosystems: Assessments and Global Significance

Pascal Bodmer, Renske Vroom, Tatiana Stepina, et al.

Published: 2021-12-05
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences

Freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands, lakes, and running waters, are estimated to contribute roughly 40% to global emissions of methane (CH4), a highly potent greenhouse gas. The emission of CH4 to the atmosphere entails the diffusive, ebullitive, and plant-mediated pathway. The latter, in particular, has been largely understudied and is neither well understood nor quantified. We have [...]

A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe

Noelia Otero, Olivia Martius, Sam Allen, et al.

Published: 2021-12-05
Subjects: Multivariate Analysis, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences

Meeting carbon-reduction targets will require thorough consideration of climate variability and climate change due to the increasing share of climate-sensitive renewable energy sources (RES). One of the main concerns arises from situations of low renewable production and high demand, which can hinder the power system. We analysed energy droughts, defined as periods of low energy production (wind [...]

Supraglacial debris thickness and supply rate in High-Mountain Asia

Michael McCarthy, Evan Miles, Marin Kneib, et al.

Published: 2021-12-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Supraglacial debris strongly modulates glacier melt rates and can be decisive for ice dynamics and mountain hydrology. It is ubiquitous in High-Mountain Asia (HMA), yet because its thickness and supply rate from local topography are poorly known, our ability to forecast regional glacier change and streamflow is limited. Here we resolved the spatial distribution of supraglacial debris thickness [...]

Evidences of horizontal urban heat advection in London using 6 years of data from a citizen weather station network

Oscar Brousse, Charles Henry Simpson, Nancy Walker, et al.

Published: 2021-12-05
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography

Recent advances in citizen weather station (CWS) networks, with data accessible via crowd-sourcing, provide relevant climatic information to urban scientists and decision makers. In particular, CWS can provide long-term measurements of urban heat and valuable information on spatio-temporal heterogeneity related to horizontal heat advection. In this study, we make the first compilation of a [...]

High-magnitude stresses induced by mineral-hydration reactions

Oliver Plümper, David Wallis, Evangelos Moulas, et al.

Published: 2021-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Fluid-rock interactions play a critical role in Earth’s lithosphere and in engineered subsurface systems. In the absence of chemical mass transport, mineral-hydration reactions will be accompanied by a solid-volume increase that may induce differential stresses and associated reaction-induced deformation processes, such as dilatant fracturing to increase fluid permeability. However, the [...]

Thresholds in road network functioning on US Atlantic and Gulf barrier islands

Sofia Aldabet, Evan B Goldstein, Eli Lazarus

Published: 2021-12-04
Subjects: Analysis, Geomorphology, Nature and Society Relations, Sustainability

Barrier islands predominate the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines of the USA, where development exceeds national trends. Forward-looking models of barrier island dynamics often include feedbacks with management practices – particularly those aimed at mitigating damage to buildings from natural hazards – and how real estate markets may be linked to barrier island dynamics. However, models thus far do [...]

Variable dynamic styles of primordial heterogeneity preservation in the Earth’s lower mantle

Anna Gülcher, David Gebhardt, Maxim Ballmer, et al.

Published: 2021-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The evolution of the system Earth is critically influenced by the long-term dynamics, composition and structure of the mantle. While cosmochemical and geochemical constraints indicate that the lower mantle hosts an ancient primordial reservoir that may be enriched in SiO2 with respect to the upper mantle, geophysical observations and models point to efficient mass transfer and convective mixing [...]

Coupled dynamics and evolution of primordial and recycled heterogeneity in Earth’s lower mantle

Anna Gülcher, Maxim Ballmer, Paul Tackley

Published: 2021-12-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Planetary Sciences

The nature of compositional heterogeneity in Earth’s lower mantle remains a long-standing puzzle that can inform about the long-term thermochemical evolution and dynamics of our planet. Here, we use global-scale 2D models of thermo- chemical mantle convection to investigate the coupled evolution and mixing of (intrinsically-dense) recycled and (intrinsically- strong) primordial heterogeneity in [...]

Corona structures driven by plume-lithosphere interactions and evidence for ongoing plume activity on Venus

Anna Gülcher, Laurent Montési, Taras Gerya, et al.

Published: 2021-12-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences

In the absence of global plate tectonics, mantle convection and plume-lithosphere interaction are the main drivers of surface deformation on Venus. Among documented tectonic structures, circular volcano-tectonic features known as coronae may be the clearest surface manifestations of mantle plumes and hold clues to the global Venusian tectonic regime. Yet, the exact processes underlying coronae [...]

Real Drivers of Climate Change?

David James Finlay

Published: 2021-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

As momentum gradually builds behind the strategy to address climate change through the global attainment of net zero emissions, recent science, post-dating this strategic implementation, throws doubt on the efficacy of such a strategy. Instead this science points to other potentially significant, if not primary, drivers of global warming largely overlooked by the established approach.

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