Preprints
There are 5493 Preprints listed.
Rapid prediction of alongshore run-up distribution from near-field tsunamis
Published: 2021-07-27
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rapid prediction of the spatial distribution of the run-up from near- field tsunamis is critically important for tsunami hazard characterization. Even though significant advances have been made over the last decade, physics- based numerical models are still computationally intensive. Here, we present a response surface methodology (RSM)-based model called the tsunami run-up response function [...]
The Mechanics of Initiation and Development of Thrust Ramps
Published: 2021-07-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We examine the mechanics of thrust fault initiation and development in sedimentary rocks which accounts for vertical variation in mechanical strength of the rocks. We use numerical mechanical models of mechanically layered rocks to examine thrust ramp nucleation in competent units, and fault propagation upward and downward into weaker units forming folds at both fault tips. We investigate the [...]
Contrasting geomorphic and stratigraphic responses to normal fault development during single and multi-phase rifting
Published: 2021-07-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Understanding the impact of tectonics on surface processes and the resultant stratigraphic evolution in multi-phase rifts is challenging, as patterns of erosion and deposition related to older phases of extension are overprinted by the subsequent extensional phases. In this study, we use a one-way coupled numerical modelling approach between a tectonic and a surface processes model to investigate [...]
Rapid prediction of peak storm surge from tropical cyclone track time series using machine learning
Published: 2021-07-27
Subjects: Engineering
Rapid and accurate prediction of peak storm surges across an extensive coastal region is necessary to inform assessments used to design the systems that protect coastal communities’ life and property. Significant advances in high-fidelity, physics-based numerical models have been made in recent years, but use of these models for probabilistic forecasting and probabilistic hazard assessment is [...]
A machine learning based approach to clinopyroxene thermobarometry: model optimisation and distribution for use in Earth Sciences
Published: 2021-07-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Thermobarometry is a fundamental tool to quantitatively interrogate magma plumbing systems and broaden our appreciation of volcanic processes. Developments in random forest-based machine learning lend themselves to a more data-driven approach to clinopyroxene thermobarometry. This can include allowing users to access and filter large experimental datasets that can be tailored to individual [...]
Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Instructional Media Design, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Science and Mathematics Education, Sustainability
Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, [...]
Floods on alluvial fans: implications for reworking rates, morphology and fan hazards
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Flood events are the agents of change on alluvial fans. However, most alluvial fan experiments have used constant flows to model fans and the channels upon them. Here, we present results from a series of alluvial fan experiments with different patterns of flow variation (i.e. different hydrograph shapes). We conducted experiments with 1) constant flow, 2) alternating high and low flows, 3) a [...]
Accuracy vs Realism: Does including reservoirs improve hydrological models?
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Brazil has invested considerably in the reservoir construction during the past decades, mainly for irrigation and hydro-power generation. Despite their large impact on catchment hydrology, reservoir dynamics are often not included in hydrological models due to their complexity. In this study, we investigated the effect of including reservoir dynamics (realism) in hydrological models on the model [...]
De-risking the energy transition by quantifying the uncertainties in fault stability
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis
The operations needed to decarbonise our energy systems increasingly involve faulted rocks in the subsurface. To manage the technical challenges presented by these rocks and the justifiable public concern over induced seismicity, we need to assess the risks. Widely used measures for fault stability, including slip and dilation tendency and fracture susceptibility, can be combined with Response [...]
Kyanite petrogenesis in migmatites: Resolving melting and metamorphic signatures
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology
Aluminosilicates (kyanite, sillimanite and andalusite) are useful pressure-temperature (P-T) indicators that can form in a range of rock types through different mineral reactions, including those that involve partial melting. Their involvement in melting reactions means that the presence of aluminosilicates in migmatite mineral assemblages can help to (broadly) constrain the P-T conditions of [...]
VESIcal Part II: A critical approach to volatile solubility modelling using an open-source Python3 engine
Published: 2021-07-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Volcanology
Accurate models of H2O and CO2 solubility in silicate melts are vital for understanding volcanic plumbing systems. These models are used to estimate the depths of magma storage regions from melt inclusion volatile contents, investigate the role of volatile exsolution as a driver of volcanic eruptions, and track the degassing paths followed by magma ascending to the surface. However, despite the [...]
Integrating Scientific Knowledge into Machine Learning using Interactive Decision Trees
Published: 2021-07-24
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering
Decision Trees (DT) is a machine learning method that has been widely used in the geosciences to automatically extract patterns from complex and high dimensional data. However, like any data-based method, the application of DT is hindered by data limitations and potentially physically unrealistic results. We develop interactive DT (iDT) that put the human in the loop and integrate the power of [...]
Sub-kilometre scale distribution of snow depth on Arctic sea ice from Soviet drifting stations
Published: 2021-07-23
Subjects: Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The sub-kilometre scale distribution of snow depth on Arctic sea ice impacts atmosphere-ice fluxes of energy and mass, and is of importance for satellite estimates of sea ice thickness from both radar and lidar altimeters. While information about the mean of this distribution is increasingly available from modelling and remote sensing, the full distribution cannot yet be resolved. We analyse [...]
Toward automating post processing of aquatic sensor data
Published: 2021-07-23
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
Sensors measuring environmental phenomena at high frequency commonly report anomalies related to fouling, sensor drift and calibration, and datalogging and transmission issues. Suitability of data for analyses and decision making often depends on manual review and adjustment of data. Machine learning techniques have potential to automate identification and correction of anomalies, streamlining [...]
Creating a Diamond Open Access community journal for Seismology and Earthquake Science
Published: 2021-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
On 24 November 2020, the Springer Nature publishing group announced the introduction of Open Access (OA) articles in Nature and its sibling journals. The corresponding OA publication fee (charged directly to the authors) was set to €9,500/$11,390/£8,290, an amount that may be well out of reach for many researchers. This is especially a problem for researchers in developing countries, early-career [...]