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Preprints

There are 5726 Preprints listed.

Rise and fall of vegetation primary production resilience to climate variability anticipated by a large ensemble of Earth System Models’ simulations

Matteo Zampieri, Bruna Grizzetti, Andrea Toreti, et al.

Published: 2021-03-09
Subjects: Life Sciences

Climate change is affecting many aspects of natural ecosystems and society. Anticipating the changes in vegetation resilience – the plants’ capacity to cope with disturbances and shocks such as those related to climate variability and extremes – is critical to understand and project ecosystems’ responses to global change and the impacts on the related ecosystem services, to support mitigation [...]

Magma pathways in sill-complexes

Craig Magee, Simon Martin, William McCarthy, et al.

Published: 2021-03-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Loch Scridain Sill-complex on the Isle of Mull affords an opportunity to examine how magma moves through and builds sill-complexes (Holness & Humphreys 2003). For example, field and petrological evidence indicates the Tràigh Bhàn na Sgùrra Sill is segmented and comprised several thick channels, separated by thin sill portions, that facilitated longer-lived magma flow (Holness & Humphreys [...]

Segment tip geometry of sheet intrusions, I: Theory and numerical models for the role of tip shape in controlling propagation pathways.

Richard Walker, Tara Louise Stephens, Catherine Greenfield, et al.

Published: 2021-03-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Inferences about sheet intrusion emplacement mechanisms have been built largely on field observations of intrusion tip zones: magmatic systems that did not grow beyond their observed state. Here we use finite element simulation of elliptical to superelliptical crack tips, representing observed natural sill segments, to show the effect of sill tip shape in controlling local stress concentrations, [...]

Climate change risks to push one-third of global food production outside Safe Climatic Space

Matti Kummu, Matias Heino, Maija Taka, et al.

Published: 2021-03-09
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences

Climate change will alter key climatic conditions which human societies directly rely on and which, for example, food production is adjusted to. Here, using Holdridge Life Zones, we define Safe Climatic Space (SCS), a concept that incorporates the decisive climatic characteristics of precipitation, temperature and aridity. This allows us first to define the climatic niche of current food [...]

Decadal shoreline erosion and recovery of beaches in modified and natural estuaries

Thomas Edmund Fellowes, Ana Vila-Concejo, Shari L Gallop, et al.

Published: 2021-03-08
Subjects: Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Sandy beaches in estuaries and bays (BEBs) are common landforms on the coasts of many major cities. They exist under a wide range of settings and their morphology is controlled by their distance from the estuary/bay entrance, exposure to different types of waves (e.g., ocean swells vs locally generated wind waves), proximity to flood-tide delta/shoals, and anthropogenic interventions (e.g., [...]

Recrystallization of ice enhances the creep and vulnerability to fracture of ice shelves

Meghana Ranganathan, Brent Minchew, Colin R. Meyer, et al.

Published: 2021-03-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The initiation of fractures and fast flow in floating regions of Antarctica have the potential to destabilize large regions of the grounded ice sheet, leading to significant sea-level rise. While observations have shown rapid, localized deformation and damage in the margins of fast-flowing glaciers, there remain gaps in our understanding of how rapid deformation affects the viscosity and [...]

A Regional Semi-Distributed Streamflow Model Using Deep Learning

Zhongrun Xiang, Ibrahim Demir, Ricardo Mantilla, et al.

Published: 2021-03-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Hydrology

Recent studies have shown that deep learning models in hydrological applications significantly improved streamflow predictions at multiple stations compared to traditional machine learning approaches. However, most studies lack generalization; i.e. researchers are training separate models for each location. The spatial and temporal generalization ability of deep learning models in hydrology that [...]

fv3gfs-wrapper: a Python wrapper of the FV3GFS atmospheric model

Jeremy James McGibbon, Noah D. Brenowitz, Mark Cheeseman, et al.

Published: 2021-03-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Software Engineering

Simulation software in geophysics is traditionally written in Fortran or C++ due to the stringent performance requirements these codes have to satisfy. As a result, these codes are often hard to understand, hard to modify and hard to interface with high-productivity languages used for exploratory work. \texttt{fv3gfs-wrapper} is an open-source Python-wrapped version of NOAA's FV3GFS global [...]

Topographic response to Neogene variations in slab geometry, climate and drainage reorganization in the Northern Andes of Colombia

Nicolás Pérez-Consuegra, Richard F Ott, Gregory D Hoke, et al.

Published: 2021-03-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The tropical Northern Andes of Colombia are one the world's most biodiverse places, offering an ideal location for unraveling the linkages between the geodynamic forces that build topography and the evolution of the biota that inhabit it. In this study, we utilize geomorphic analysis to characterize the topography of the Western and Central Cordilleras of the Northern Andes. We supplement our [...]

Mechanical properties of quartz sand and gypsum powder (plaster) mixtures: implications for laboratory model analogues for the Earth’s upper crust

Sam Poppe, Eoghan P. Holohan, Michael Rudolf, et al.

Published: 2021-03-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Granular materials are a useful analogue for the Earth’s crust in laboratory models of deformation. Constraining their mechanical properties is critical for such model’s scaling and interpretation. Much information exists about monomineralic granular materials, such as quartz sand, but the mechanical characteristics of bimineralic mixtures, such as commonly-used quartz sand mixed with gypsum [...]

Land-tenure regimes determine tropical deforestation rates across socio-environmental contexts

Andrea Pacheco, Carsten Meyer

Published: 2021-03-05
Subjects: Environmental Studies

Many tropical forestlands are experiencing changes in land-tenure regimes, but how these changes may affect deforestation rates remains ambiguous. Using Brazil’s uniquely comprehensive land-tenure and deforestation data and quasi-experimental methods, we analyzed causal effects of six alternative tenure regimes on deforestation across 49 spatiotemporal scales corresponding to distinct [...]

New insight into post-seismic landslide evolution processes in the tropics

Hakan Tanyas, Dalia Kirschbaum, Tolga Gorum, et al.

Published: 2021-03-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology

Earthquakes do not only trigger landslides in co-seismic phases but also elevate post-seismic landslide susceptibility either by causing a strength reduction in hillslope materials or by producing co-seismic landslide deposits, which are prone to further remobilization under the external forces generated by subsequent rainfall events. However, we still have limited observations regarding the [...]

Space-time susceptibility modeling of hydro-morphological processes at the Chinese national scale

Nan Wang, Luigi Lombardo, Weiming Cheng, et al.

Published: 2021-03-04
Subjects: Geomorphology

Hydro-morphological processes (HMP; any process in the spectrum between debris flows and flash floods) threaten human infrastructures and lives; and their effects are only expected to worsen in the context of climate change. One of the ways to limit the potential damage of HMP is to take preventive or remedial actions probabilistically knowing where and how frequently they may occur. The expected [...]

Assessing Margin-Wide Rupture Behaviors along the Cascadia Megathrust with 3-D Dynamic Rupture Simulations

Marlon Dale Ramos, Yihe Huang, Thomas Ulrich, et al.

Published: 2021-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

From California to British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest coast bears an omnipresent earthquake and tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone. Multiple lines of evidence suggests that magnitude eight and greater megathrust earthquakes have occurred - the most recent being 321 years ago (i.e., 1700 A.D.). Outstanding questions for the next great megathrust event include where it will [...]

An analytical solution for the exhumation of an orogenic wedge and a comparison with thermochronology data

Elco Luijendijk, Leo Benard, Sarah Louis, et al.

Published: 2021-03-04
Subjects: Geology, Tectonics and Structure

Thermochronology data is key for quantifying the exhumation history and dynamics of mountain belts. Here we present a new analytical solution for the steady-state exhumation of an orogenic wedge that undergoes transport along a basal detachment, uniform internal deformation, basal and frontal accretion. The solution predicts an increase in exhumation towards the interior of the wedge, with the [...]

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