Preprints
There are 6247 Preprints listed.
Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach
Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO [...]
Transport and Fate of All-Time Released Plastics in the Global Ocean
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences
Mismanaged plastics accumulate in oceans and threaten marine life. About 40 million tonnes of plastics have reached the oceans, where their fate remains unclear. To track the sources, sinks, sizes, and age of all-time released plastics, we developed a new mechanistic model and synthesized decades of measurements. We find that Asian plastics are the largest contributor (76%) to marine plastics by [...]
The role of sediment subduction and buoyancy on subduction dynamics and geometry
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subducted sediments are thought to lubricate the subduction interface and promote faster plate speeds. However, global observations are not clear-cut on the relationship between the amount of sediments and plate motion. Sediments are also thought to influence slab dip, but variations in subduction geometry depend on multiple factors. Here we use 2D thermomechanical models to explore how sediments [...]
The early diversification of ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii): hypotheses, challenges and future prospects
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Paleobiology, Paleontology
Actinopterygii are the most speciose living vertebrate clade, and study of fossil members during their Palaeozoic rise to dominance has a long history of descriptive work. Although research interest into Palaeozoic actinopterygians has increased in recent years, broader patterns of diversity and diversity dynamics remain critically understudied. Past studies have investigated macroevolutionary [...]
Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using process-guided deep learning and data assimilation
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Hydrology, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Near-term forecasts of environmental outcomes can inform real-time decision making. Data assimilation modeling techniques can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time data streams, where the difference between model predictions and observations can be used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided deep learning and data [...]
Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Glaciology
Accurate representation of the viscous flow of ice is fundamental to understanding glacier dynamics and projecting sea-level rise. Ice viscosity is often described by a simple but largely untested and uncalibrated constitutive relation, Glen’s Flow Law, wherein the rate of deformation is proportional to stress raised to the power n. The value n = 3 is commonly prescribed in ice-flow models, [...]
Melting conditions and mantle source composition from probabilistic joint inversion of major and rare earth element concentrations
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The chemical composition of erupted basalts provides a record of the thermo-chemical state of their source region and the melting conditions that lead to their formation. Here we present the first probabilistic inversion framework capable of inverting both trace and major element data of mafic volcanic rocks to constrain mantle potential temperature, depth of melting, and major and trace element [...]
Reflection Seismic Thermometry
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology
The North Viking Graben (NVG) is part of the mature North Sea Basin petroleum province and designated as a major carbon storage basin for NW Europe. It has been extensively drilled over five decades with an abundance of well and seismic data in the public domain. As such it serves as an excellent setting to demonstrate the efficacy of a reflection seismic data led approach to predicting [...]
Systematic calculation of finite-time mixed singular vectors and characterization of error growth for persistent coherent atmospheric disturbances over Eurasia
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Singular vectors (SVs) have long been employed in the initialization of ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) in order to capture the structural organization and growth rates of those perturbations or “errors” associated with initial condition errors and instability processes of the large scale flow. Due to their (super) exponential growth rates and spatial scales, initial SVs are typically [...]
Storage, evolution, and mixing in basaltic eruptions from around the Okataina Volcanic Centre, Taupō Volcanic Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand
Published: 2021-08-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Volcanic Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand. Although best known for its high rates of explosive rhyolitic volcanism, there are several examples of basaltic to basaltic-andesite contributions to OVC eruptions. These range from minor involvement of basalt in rhyolitic eruptions to the exclusively basaltic 1886 C.E. plinian eruption of Tarawera. To explore the basaltic component supplying this dominantly [...]
A strontium isoscape of Italy for provenance studies
Published: 2021-08-06
Subjects: Geochemistry
We present a novel database of environmental and geological 87Sr/86Sr values (n = 1920) from Italy, using literature data and newly analysed samples, for provenance purposes. We collected both bioavailable and non-bioavailable (i.e. rocks and bulk soils) data to attain a broader view of the Sr isotope variability of the Italian peninsula. These data were used to build isotope variability maps, [...]
On the overlooked impact of river dams on beach erosion worldwide
Published: 2021-08-04
Subjects: Engineering
The current retreat of the world's coastline has a profound impact on human activities and ecosystems. The scientific community has primarily focused on the potential impact of sea level rise. At the global scale, the contribution of river sand loads to coastal erosion has been overlooked. Here we present the first global sand pathway model from land to sea. Our model reveals that sand tends to [...]
Geochemical constraints on the structure of the Earth’s deep mantle and the origin of the LLSVPs
Published: 2021-08-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Geophysical analysis of the Earth’s lower mantle has revealed the presence of two superstructures characterized by low shear wave velocities on the core-mantle boundary. These Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs) play a crucial role in the dynamics of the lower mantle and act as the source region for deep-seated mantle plumes. However, their origin, and the characteristics of the [...]
Calibration, inversion and sensitivity analysis for hydro-morphodynamic models
Published: 2021-08-03
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Fluid Dynamics, Geomorphology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Partial Differential Equations, Programming Languages and Compilers
The development of reliable, sophisticated hydro-morphodynamic models is essential for protecting the coastal environment against hazards such as flooding and erosion. There exists a high degree of uncertainty associated with the application of these models, in part due to incomplete knowledge of various physical, empirical and numerical closure related parameters in both the hydrodynamic and [...]
Drivers of phytoplankton responses to summer storms in a stratified lake: a modelling study
Published: 2021-08-03
Subjects: Hydrology, Other Environmental Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Extreme wind events affect lake phytoplankton amongst others by deepening the mixed layer and increasing internal nutrient loading. Both increases and decreases of phytoplankton biomass after storms have been observed, but the precise mechanisms driving these responses remain poorly understood or quantified. In this study, we coupled a one-dimensional physical model to a biogeochemical model to [...]