Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity Metrics Using Large Ensemble Observational Datasets
Published: 2026-09-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Gridded surface temperature observational datasets are an important line of evidence for estimating climate sensitivity metrics. Climate sensitivity metrics are often derived from comparing historical warming in these observations against climate model simulations, an approach that is known to be sensitive to the choice of observational dataset. With observational products now providing large [...]
Geological review of English coastal archaeological evidence portending multi-metre sea-level rise by 2100
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
English archaeological literature, its sea-level significance hitherto underappreciated, is reviewed here from a geological (sedimentological) perspective. Five Roman-built (~300AD) waterside forts and a seaside palace (~100AD), all meticulously excavated by archaeologists, tightly dated (tree-rings, coins, pottery), and published in great detail, yield evidence proving a ~4-metre (m) sea-level [...]
The role of glauconite content in controlling sand crushing and compressibility
Published: 2026-06-16
Subjects: Geotechnical Engineering
Glauconite-rich sands are increasingly posing engineering challenges in offshore and nearshore developments, since their mechanical behaviour remains poorly understood owing to the extreme crushability of glauconite grains. Particle crushing in these sediments alters stiffness, compressibility, grading, particle morphology and, consequently, engineering performance. This study presents a [...]
Holocene rapid (decades) multi-metre marine transgressions by climatically driven Antarctic ice-collapse events. Another event imminent?
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The controversial 1961 'Fairbridge Curve' of Holocene global sea-level (SL), showing metre-scale (to ~5m) oscillations based on carbon-dated geological index points (SL 'benchmarks''), is vindicated by syntheses (companion-articles by present author) of the literature on: (1) Holocene sea level, exposing flawed assumptions and methods in constructing non-oscillating SL curves; and (2) English [...]
Enhancing the Normalized Difference Water Index for Improved Urban Flood Detection
Published: 2025-03-21
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Hydrology, Natural Resource Economics, Other Earth Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Accurate urban flood detection is crucial for effective disaster management and urban planning. Traditional indices like the Normalized Difference Water Index and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index often produce inaccurate results due to spectral confusion in urban areas and sensitivity to shadows. Moreover, MNDWI's reliance on the Shortwave Infrared band limits its use with certain [...]
Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences
Human activities are expected to delay the next glacial inception because of the long atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. We present the first Earth system model simulations for the next 200,000 years with dynamic ice sheets and interactive atmospheric CO2, exploring how emissions will impact a future glacial inception. Historical emissions (500 PgC) are unlikely to delay inception, [...]
Dendritically-Drained Peat Plateaus: A Distinctive Thaw-Sensitive Organic-Rich Permafrost Landsystem in Northwestern Canada
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Peatlands in northwestern Canada comprise one of the most thaw-sensitive and carbon-rich permafrost landscapes of North America, and undergo rapid thaw due to surface disturbance and climate change. Dendritically-drained peat plateaus (DPPs) are a distinctive permafrost landform assemblage characterized by branching networks of channelized fens and bogs dissecting raised peat plateaus with [...]
Generative Prior Transformation model for mineral resources evaluation and prediction (MineralGPT): A case study of prospective target area selection for the Xiaoshan-Xiongershan area gold polymetallic deposit
Published: 2025-03-21
Subjects: Engineering
Mineral resources are an important material foundation for economic and social development. The mineral resources evaluation and prediction will provide scientific basis for the development, utilization, and protection of mineral resources. The existing traditional artificial mineral resource comprehensive evaluation methods are costly, time-consuming, and have limited data processing and [...]
Paddy Segmentation Using Google Earth Engine: A Remote Sensing Approach Abstract
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Life Sciences
Paddy field segmentation using remote sensing is crucial for agricultural monitoring, yield prediction, and resource allocation. In this research, we employ Google Earth Engine (GEE) for paddy segmentation using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Our method leverages Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) to mask paddy fields efficiently. We collected 2000 [...]
Non-linear dynamical approaches for multi-sector climate resilience under irreducible uncertainty
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Internal climate variability (ICV) remains a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, complicating impact assessments across critical sectors. Given that ICV emerges from the nonlinear interactions of the climate system, we argue that nonlinear dynamical (NLD) approaches can improve its characterization, providing physically interpretable insights that strengthen adaptation strategies [...]
Filling the gaps between tide gauges: Demonstrating high-resolution seasonal high tide flooding predictions using NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Reanalysis
Published: 2026-01-17
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
High Tide Flooding (HTF) is a present and increasing hazard for coastal communities across the United States. NOAA provides HTF outlooks at U.S. tide gauges, however, many coastal communities lie relatively far from a tide gauge and therefore currently lack localized HTF guidance. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to generate spatially-continuous daily predictions of HTF at 400-500 m [...]
Three times accelerated glacier area loss in Svalbard revealed by deep learning
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The rapid warming in polar regions highlights the need to monitor climate change impacts such as glacier retreat and related global sea level rise. Glacier area is an essential climate variable but its tracking is complicated by the labour-intensive manual digitisation of satellite imagery. Here we introduce ICEmapper, a deep learning model that maps glacier outlines from Sentinel-1 time series [...]
Ocean-bottom Seismic Interferometry in Coupled Acoustic-Elastic Media
Published: 2025-03-24
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Green’s function expressions for seismic interferometry in acoustic and elastic media have been extensively studied and applied across a wide range of applications, including surface-wave tomography and generating virtual shot gathers. However, analogous expressions for coupled acoustic-elastic media systems remain absent, despite their importance for analysing cross-correlation wavefields from [...]
First-order Control Factors for Ocean-bottom Ambient Seismology Interferometric Observations
Published: 2025-03-24
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Expanding the lower-frequency band of seismic energy sources, particularly below 2.0~Hz, is crucial for improving the stability and effectiveness of full waveform inversion (FWI). Conventional active sources including airguns are ineffective at generating low-frequency wavefields, while ambient seismic wavefields, driven by natural energy sources such as ocean waves, offer a promising [...]
Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the Rapid Impact Model Emulator (RIME)
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate model emulation has long been applied to assess the global climate outcomes of integrated assessment model (IAM)IAM emissions scenarios, but is typically limited to first-order climate variables like mean surface air temperatures at minimal limited regional resolution. Here we introduce RIME, the Rapid Impact Model Emulator, which uses global warming level interpolation approaches based [...]