Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large indirect economic impacts of tropical cyclones shaped by disaster response
Published: 2024-05-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have direct economic impacts, destroying property and infrastructure. However, the sign and magnitude of their indirect impacts via longer-term changes in economic output remain unclear. Here we use data on TC winds and county-level income in the U.S. to quantify the long-term indirect impacts of TCs. We find a nonlinear response of income growth to TCs, where damages [...]
Can We Reverse Global Warming?
Published: 2024-05-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Without mitigation, Climate Change is expected to costs large amounts of money, cause vast amounts of human suffering and death and threatens the survival of countless species. Rising global temperatures alone are expected to cause a drop in GDP of 30 – 70% for many countries with already high temperatures. In combination with other factors (population growth, increasing water stress, coastal [...]
Savings and Avoided Costs of Living Carbon Negative
Published: 2024-05-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In order to prevent the biodiversity losses anticipated under business-as-usual (BAU) conditions, and to prevent the associated enormous financial and human losses, the world has to transition to carbon negative economies, where for decades more CO2 will be sequestered than emitted. To abate and possibly reverse global warming, we need to both transition from fossil fuels to renewables (mainly [...]
Randomization of the Earth's magnetic field driven by magnetic helicity
Published: 2024-05-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
It is shown, using results of numerical simulations and geomagnetic observations, that the spatial and temporal randomization of the Earth's global and local magnetic fields is driven by magnetic helicity (a magnetohydrodynamic invariant). In the frames of the distributed chaos notion, the magnetic helicity determines the degree of magnetic field randomization and the results of numerical [...]
Predictable recovery rates in near-surface materials after earthquake damage
Published: 2024-05-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earthquakes introduce transient mechanical damage in the subsurface, which causes postseismic hazards and can take years to recover. This observation has been linked to relaxation, a phenomenon observed in a wide class of materials after straining perturbations, but its duration after earthquake ground shaking has not been constrained. Here, we analyse the effects of two successive large [...]
On the Origin of Holocene Sea-Level Transgressions in Formerly Glaciated Regions
Published: 2024-05-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Over glacial cycles, the growing and shrinking of ice sheets has caused relative sea level (RSL) to differ from global mean sea level (GMSL) due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which depends on the viscoelastic properties of the solid Earth. During the last termination and through the Holocene, GIA-related isostatic uplift caused RSL to fall in regions formerly covered by ice sheets. [...]
Application of the Image Processing Method and the Beer-Lambert Law for Assessing Sea Water Intrusion
Published: 2024-05-22
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper presents an innovative approach integrating the Image Processing Method and the Beer-Lambert Law to study Sea Water Intrusion in riverine systems. Using an experimental setup, this study characterizes the dynamics between saline and fresh waters, providing detailed spatial and temporal salinity distribution analyses. The Beer-Lambert Law is employed to convert image pixel data to [...]
Spatial Patterns of Urban Heat Islands and Green Space Cooling Effects in the Urban Microclimate of Karachi
Published: 2024-05-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
With rapid urbanization and the increasing threats of climate change, metropolitan cities like Karachi, Pakistan, are encountering greater challenges due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. Understanding the cooling potential of urban green spaces (UGS) is crucial for mitigating heat stress and enhancing urban resilience. This study aims to analyze the thermal dynamics and cooling efficacy [...]
Impact Estimation and Product Classification under IMACS
Published: 2024-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Impact Measurement and Conservation System (IMACS) was developed to calculate environmental and human condition impacts and to apply conservation required to neutralize such impacts for products and services purchased by end-user consumers (1- 6). With its implementation, the IMACS system would allow the fastest return to the best approximation of pre-industrial sustainable conditions. All [...]
At the Sharp End of Fractured Granites: A Critical Geology for Critical Times
Published: 2024-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Human Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The geosciences have been positioned as integral to a ‘whole society’ transition that includes the decarbonisation of energy systems. Geothermal energy - which relies on a knowledge of the dynamism of rocks in the subsurface including the movement of fluids through fractures, physio-chemical interactions, and thermal gradients – has been offered as a potential route forward. Its realisation [...]
Remote Sensing of Environmental Impacts for IMACS
Published: 2024-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Impact Measurement and Conservation System (IMACS) was developed to calculate environmental and human condition impacts and to apply conservation required to neutralize such impacts for products and services purchased by end-user consumers (1- 6). With its implementation, the IMACS system would allow the fastest return to the best approximation of pre-industrial sustainable conditions (Global [...]
A model of near-sea ice phytoplankton blooms
Published: 2024-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Arctic phytoplankton spring blooms have increased in magnitude and extent over the past two decades, particularly in waters near the sea ice edge. We develop an idealized model of phytoplankton dynamics that takes into account the role of sea ice meltwater flux and its impact on surface mixed layer depth. Satellite observations feature a characteristic peak in phytoplankton concentration at [...]
Bayesian Inversion with TimeOptMCMC
Published: 2024-05-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Stratigraphy
TimeOptMCMC (Meyers and Malinverno, 2018) is a Bayesian approach for evaluating cyclostratigraphic records that quantitatively links geologic data with astronomical theory. This manuscript provides an introductory guide for conducting a TimeOptMCMC Bayesian inversion, following the approach of Meyers and Malinverno (2018). The purpose of this guide is to help users identify an appropriate data [...]
Global Warming is Industrially Suppressed Middle-School Science
Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 15\% of the American public that denies global warming probably used middle-school science texts in which the topic was omitted at the behest of Big Oil. We attempt to remedy this with a simple explanation of the process, in which the 33°C difference between the Stefan-Bolzmann astrophysical -18°C temperature of the solar-heated planet and the Weather Bureau's comfortable 15°C sea-level [...]
Ultramafic Melt Viscosity: A Model
Published: 2024-05-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences
A non-Arrhenian model for the Newtonian viscosity (η) of ultramafic melts is presented. The model predicts the viscosity of ultramafic melts as a function of temperature (T), pressure (P), H2O content and for a range of melt compositions (70 < Mg# < 100). The calibration consists of 63 viscosity measurements at ambient pressure for 20 individual melt compositions and 5 high-P measurements [...]