Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Bayesian modelling of piecewise trends and discontinuities to improve the estimation of coastal vertical land motion
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
One of the major sources of uncertainty affecting vertical land motion (VLM) estimations are discontinuities and trend changes. Trend changes are most commonly caused by seismic deformation, but can also stem from long-term (decadal to multidecadal) surface loading changes or from local origins. Although these issues have been extensively addressed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) [...]
Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Hurricane Surge and Inundation
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study proposes a methodology for efficient probabilistic prediction of near-landfall hurricane-driven storm surge, tide, and inundation. We perturb forecasts of hurricane track, intensity, and size according to quasi-random low-discrepancy Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of [...]
Tectono-sedimentary evolution of Southern Mexico. Implications for Cretaceous and younger source-to-sink systems in the Mexican foreland basins and the Gulf of Mexico
Published: 2022-05-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
An extensive dataset of existing and new geo/thermochronological data from several areas in Southern Mexico constrains the tectonic history of the region, as well as various source-to-sink relationships and local burial histories. Our interpretation acknowledges that not all cooling/heating observed in the source areas is due to erosional exhumation/burial but, in some cases, due to advective [...]
Caledonian hot zone magmatism in the “Newer Granites”: insight from the Cluanie and Clunes plutons, Northern Scottish Highlands
Published: 2022-05-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Scottish “Newer” Granites record the evolution of the Caledonides resulting from Iapetus subduction and slab breakoff during the Silurian-Devonian Scandian Orogeny, but relationships between geodynamics, petrogenesis and emplacement are incomplete. Laser ablation U-Pb results from magmatic zircons at the Cluanie Pluton (Northern Highlands) identify clusters of concordant Silurian data points. A [...]
Divergence in climate model projections of Arctic Atlantification
Published: 2022-05-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified by salinity in the uppermost layers. This stratification is a key attribute of the region as it acts as an effective barrier for the vertical exchanges of Atlantic Water heat, nutrients, and CO2 between intermediate depths and the surface of the Eurasian and Amerasian basins (EB and AB). Observations show that from 1970 to 2017, the stratification in the AB [...]
Weak coupling of fluvial aggradation and paleo-denudation rates during the last glacial cycle, Crete, Greece
Published: 2022-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The impact of Quaternary climate cycles on denudation rates and fluvial aggradation and incision is debated, especially in non-glaciated regions. Here we present paleo-denudation rates and geochronological constraints on aggradation and incision from the Sfakia and Elafonisi alluvial-fan sequences on Crete, Greece. We report seven optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), ten radiocarbon ages, and [...]
Gender Equity in Oceanography
Published: 2022-05-20
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Gender equity, providing for full participation of people of all genders in the oceanographic workforce, is an important goal for the continued success of the oceanographic enterprise. Here we describe historical obstructions to gender equity, assess recent progress and the current status of gender equity in oceanography by examining quantitative measures of participation, achievement, and [...]
Cloud feedback depends on Southern Ocean salinity
Published: 2022-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has remained persistently unchanged for the past four decades1–4, with cloud feedback3,5–11 as a primary source of the uncertainty. Here we show that a key component of this uncertainty is rooted in the impact of base-state Southern Ocean salinity on cloud feedback. Sea surface salinity in the sinking zone of the Southern Ocean (45o-60oS) [...]
Geometry and growth of syn-tectonic plutons emplaced in thrust shear zones: Insights from Abu Ziran Pluton, Egypt
Published: 2022-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Coupling of deformation and magmatism has been reported in several old orogenic belts, particularly along thrust faults and shear zones. The syn-kinematic plutons in exhumed shear zones offer the best opportunity to understand the complex relationship between magmatism and regional deformation. The present paper investigates the geometry and internal structure of granite plutons emplaced in [...]
The microwave snow grain size: a new concept to predict satellite observations over snow-covered regions
Published: 2022-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite observations of snow-covered regions in the microwave range have the potential to retrieve essential climate variables such as snow height. This requires a precise understanding of how microwave scattering is linked to snow microstructural properties (density, grain size, grain shape and arrangement). This link has so far relied on empirical adjustments of the theories, precluding the [...]
Linking silicon isotopic signatures with diatom communities
Published: 2022-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The use of silicon isotope ratios (expressed as d30Si) as a paleolimnological proxy in lacustrine systems requires a better understanding of the role of lake processes in setting the d30Si values of dissolved Si (dSi) in water and in diatom biogenic silica (bSi). We determined the d30Si of modern dSi (d30SidSi) and bSi (d30SibSi) in three lakes in Lassen Volcanic National Park (LAVO), [...]
Deep Compressed Seismic Learning for fast location and moment tensor inferences with natural and induced seismicity
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Fast detection and characterization of seismic sources is crucial for decision-making and warning systems that monitor natural and induced seismicity. However, besides the laying out of ever denser monitoring networks of seismic instruments, the incorporation of new sensor technologies such as Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) further challenges our processing capabilities to deliver short [...]
Probabilistic Assessment of Antarctic Thermomechanical Structure: Impacts on Ice Sheet Stability
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology
Uncertainty in present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rates represents at least 44% of the total gravity-based ice mass balance signal over Antarctica. Meanwhile, physical couplings between solid Earth, sea level and ice dynamics enhance the dependency of the spatiotemporally varying GIA signal on three-dimensional variations in mantle rheology. Improved knowledge of thermomechanical [...]
Centering Equity in the Nation's Weather, Water and Climate Services
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Water, weather, and climate affect everyone. However, their impacts on various communities can be very different based on who has access to essential services and environmental knowledge. At the same time, structural discrimination, including racism and other forms of privileging and exclusion, affects people's lives and health, with ripples across all sectors of society. In the United States, [...]
Caravan - A global community dataset for large-sample hydrology
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
High-quality datasets are essential to support hydrological science and modeling. Several CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) datasets exist for specific countries or regions, however these datasets lack standardization, which makes global studies difficult. This paper introduces a dataset called Caravan (a series of CAMELS) that standardizes and aggregates [...]