Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]
Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.1T and $5.7T in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 [...]
Constraining flow and sediment transport intermittency in the geological past
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantitative investigations of ancient rivers usually provide insights into either instantaneous or mean flow conditions. There is a critical gap between these timescales of investigation which reflects the intermittency of flow and sediment transport, and closing this gap is crucial to fully explore the dynamics and evolution of ancient fluvial landscapes. Here, we combine fluvial stratigraphic [...]
SWAT model-based quantification of the impact of land use change on sediment yield in the Fincha watershed, Ethiopia
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In recent years, Ethiopia is facing problems due to soil erosion, mainly because of the conversion of natural vegetation cover into cultivated land. Soil erosion is also affecting dam reservoirs, which are threatened by an increase in sediment yield entering the lake. The present study focuses on the Ethiopian Fincha watershed and takes advantage of the potentiality of SWAT, to investigate how [...]
Standardised indices to monitor energy droughts
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
To mitigate the effects of climate change, energy systems are becoming increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources. Since these energy sources are typically dependent on the prevailing weather, renewable energy systems are susceptible to shortages during certain weather conditions. As renewable sources become larger contributors to the energy mix, the risks associated with these shortages, [...]
The Paleozoic Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt: its geodynamic and tectonic interpretation based on Paleogeographic reconstructions
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the southwestern margin of the North Patagonian Massif there is a NW26 SE belt of igneous and metamorphic rocks defining a limit between the North Patagonian Massif and southern Patagonia (including the Deseado Massif), named the Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt (CPIMB). The objective of this paper is to better understand the geodynamic and tectonic processes that generated its [...]
Comment on "Estimates on the Frequency of Volcanic Eruptions on Venus" by Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022)
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Other Planetary Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences
Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022) estimated the frequency of volcanic eruptions on Venus by scaling the eruption frequency obtained from a database containing Earth data. In reproducing their study, I found that the estimated number of new and ongoing volcanic eruptions on Venus in a given year is approximately 42, instead of the previously reported 120 eruptions. This updated estimate of Byrne & [...]
Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The technique is termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT). The generated perturbations are independent between different model [...]
The small-amplitude dynamics of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Cloud-permitting simulations have shown that tropical cyclones can form spontaneously in a quiescent environment with uniform sea surface temperature. While the moisture-radiation instability is known as the main mechanism for early-stage growth, two key questions remain unresolved: First, how does the noisy cumulus cloud field organize into a mesoscale perturbation? Second, what determines the [...]
Call for collaboration: Benchmark datasets for landslide susceptibility zonation
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide susceptibility, the spatial likelihood of occurrence of landslides in a specific geographical area, is the subject of countless scientific publications. Different authors use heterogeneous data, and apply many different methods, mostly falling under the definition of statistical and/or machine learning approaches, with the common feature of considering many input variables and a single [...]
The effect of uncertainties in creep activation energies on modeling ice flow and deformation
Published: 2022-11-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ice deformation is commonly represented by a power-law constitutive relation, Glen's Flow Law, where deformation (strain) rate equals stress raised to the power n and multiplied by a flow-rate parameter A. Glen's Law represents bulk ice rheology as a single power-law even though multiple mechanisms, each with their own power-law relation and parametric values, act together during viscous [...]
Positive Matrix Factorization of Large Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Datasets Using Error-Weighted Randomized Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Weighted positive matrix factorization (PMF) has been used by scientists to find small sets of underlying factors in environmental data. However, as the size of the data has grown, increasing computational costs have made it impractical to use traditional methods for this factorization. In this paper, we present a new weighting method to dramatically decrease computational costs for these [...]
How reproducible and reliable is geophysical research? A review of the availability and accessibility of data and software for research published in journals
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Geophysical research frequently makes use of agreed methodologies, formally published software, and bespoke code to process and analyse data. The reliability and repeatability of these methods is vital in maintaining the integrity of research findings and thereby avoiding the dissemination of unreliable results. In recent years there has been increased attention on aspects of reproducibility, [...]
Technical note: A procedure to clean, decompose and aggregate time series
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Errors, gaps and outliers complicate and sometimes invalidate the analysis of time series. While most fields have developed their own strategy to clean the raw data, no generic procedure has been promoted to standardize the pre-processing. This lack of harmonization makes the inter-comparison of studies difficult, and leads to screening methods that can be arbitrary or case-specific. This study [...]
The future of coastal monitoring through satellite remote sensing
Published: 2022-11-15
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite remote sensing is transforming coastal science from a ‘data-poor’ field into a ‘data-rich’ field. Sandy beaches are dynamic landscapes that change in response to long-term pressures, short-term pulses, and anthropogenic interventions. Until recently, the rate and breadth of beach change has outpaced our ability to monitor those changes, due to the spatiotemporal limitations of our [...]