Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The technique is termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT). The generated perturbations are independent between different model [...]
The small-amplitude dynamics of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Cloud-permitting simulations have shown that tropical cyclones can form spontaneously in a quiescent environment with uniform sea surface temperature. While the moisture-radiation instability is known as the main mechanism for early-stage growth, two key questions remain unresolved: First, how does the noisy cumulus cloud field organize into a mesoscale perturbation? Second, what determines the [...]
Call for collaboration: Benchmark datasets for landslide susceptibility zonation
Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landslide susceptibility, the spatial likelihood of occurrence of landslides in a specific geographical area, is the subject of countless scientific publications. Different authors use heterogeneous data, and apply many different methods, mostly falling under the definition of statistical and/or machine learning approaches, with the common feature of considering many input variables and a single [...]
The effect of uncertainties in creep activation energies on modeling ice flow and deformation
Published: 2022-11-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ice deformation is commonly represented by a power-law constitutive relation, Glen's Flow Law, where deformation (strain) rate equals stress raised to the power n and multiplied by a flow-rate parameter A. Glen's Law represents bulk ice rheology as a single power-law even though multiple mechanisms, each with their own power-law relation and parametric values, act together during viscous [...]
Positive Matrix Factorization of Large Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Datasets Using Error-Weighted Randomized Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Weighted positive matrix factorization (PMF) has been used by scientists to find small sets of underlying factors in environmental data. However, as the size of the data has grown, increasing computational costs have made it impractical to use traditional methods for this factorization. In this paper, we present a new weighting method to dramatically decrease computational costs for these [...]
How reproducible and reliable is geophysical research? A review of the availability and accessibility of data and software for research published in journals
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Geophysical research frequently makes use of agreed methodologies, formally published software, and bespoke code to process and analyse data. The reliability and repeatability of these methods is vital in maintaining the integrity of research findings and thereby avoiding the dissemination of unreliable results. In recent years there has been increased attention on aspects of reproducibility, [...]
Technical note: A procedure to clean, decompose and aggregate time series
Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Errors, gaps and outliers complicate and sometimes invalidate the analysis of time series. While most fields have developed their own strategy to clean the raw data, no generic procedure has been promoted to standardize the pre-processing. This lack of harmonization makes the inter-comparison of studies difficult, and leads to screening methods that can be arbitrary or case-specific. This study [...]
The future of coastal monitoring through satellite remote sensing
Published: 2022-11-16
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite remote sensing is transforming coastal science from a ‘data-poor’ field into a ‘data-rich’ field. Sandy beaches are dynamic landscapes that change in response to long-term pressures, short-term pulses, and anthropogenic interventions. Until recently, the rate and breadth of beach change has outpaced our ability to monitor those changes, due to the spatiotemporal limitations of our [...]
Bayesian analysis of ground motion models using chimney fragility curves: 2021, 5.9-Mw Woods Point intraplate earthquake, Victoria, Australia
Published: 2022-11-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistics and Probability
The 22 September 2021 (AEST) Mw 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred in an intraplate setting (southeast Australia) approximately 130 km East Northeast of the central business district of Melbourne (pop. ∼5.15 million). A lack of seismic instrumentation and a low population density in the epicentral region resulted in a dearth of near-source instrumental and “felt” report intensity data, limiting [...]
PREPRINT: A global platform solution for Big Data in low-temperature thermochronology
Published: 2022-11-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Low-temperature thermochronology is a powerful tool for constraining the thermal evolution of geological materials at temperatures (< ~300 °C) common in the upper crust in relation to geodynamics, continental crustal evolution, landscape evolution, and natural resource formation and preservation. However, complexities inherent to these analytical techniques can make interpreting the significance [...]
Reconsideration of the pre-1970 model for the timing of oil expulsion from source rocks
Published: 2022-11-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The current model for oil expulsion occurring at 120-150°C by anhydrous pyrolysis is not consistent with either analyses of the total organic carbon (TOC) content of subsurface source rocks or the chemical attributes of shallow oils. New data from North Sea Upper Jurassic source-rock samples show no decline in TOC between 120 and 150°C, which is a key prediction by the current model for oil [...]
Weak precipitation δ2H response to large Holocene hydroclimate changes in eastern North America
Published: 2022-11-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In eastern North America, annual precipitation increased by >40% over the Holocene, largely in response to melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The change substantially raised lake levels and transformed conifer-dominated ecosystems into mesic deciduous forests. δ2H values of terrestrially derived leaf-wax n-alkanes can facilitate diagnoses of the climate dynamics involved by reconstructing δ2H [...]
The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land.
Published: 2022-11-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) for the period 1998-2017. For a 1degree C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), [...]
Revisiting earlier predictions of glacier retreat: The case of Langfjordjøkelen
Published: 2022-11-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
European glaciers constitute a part of the climate system that is bound to greatly change in the course of the 21st century. Recent length-change observations from Langfjordjøkelen in northern Norway confirm the earlier predictions of Charalampidis (2012), who identified the glacier’s disequilibrium with climate and hence extensive committed ice loss in the 21st century. Simulations suggest that, [...]
Seismic Architecture of the Lithosphere-Asthenosphere System in the Western United States from a Joint Inversion of Body- and Surface-wave Observations: Distribution of Partial Melt in the Upper Mantle
Published: 2022-11-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantitative evaluation of the physical state of the upper mantle, including mapping temperature variations and the possible distribution of partial melt, requires accurately characterizing absolute seismic velocities near seismic discontinuities. We present a joint inversion for absolute but discontinuous models of shear-wave velocity (Vs) using 4 types of data: Rayleigh wave phases velocities, [...]