Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Is Net Zero by 2050 Possible?
Published: 2020-06-11
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Achieving Net Zero 2050 does not assure complying with a global warming temperature ceiling. The U.S. might achieve NZ(2050); the world almost certainly will not. For the U.S. to achieve NZ(2050) requires a massive transition of the economy, which is extremely unlikely.
Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Reliable projections of these extremes are pressingly needed for local actions in the context of extreme event preparedness and mitigation. Such information, however, is not available because current multi-model projections largely lack a representation of urban areas. Here, we use a newly-developed urban climate emulator [...]
The sustainability of beach nourishments: A review of nourishment and environmental monitoring practice
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Beach nourishments are a widely used method to mitigate erosion along flood-prone sandy shorelines. In contrast to hard coastal protection structures, nourishments are considered as soft engineering, although little is known about the cumulative, long-term environmental effects of both marine sediment extraction and nourishment activities. Recent endeavours to sustain the marine ecosystem and [...]
Ancient siderites reveal hot and humid super-greenhouse climate
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth’s climate is warming as the rise in atmospheric CO2 (pCO2) contributes to increased radiative forcing. State-of-the-art models calculate a wide range in Earth’s climate sensitivities due to increasing pCO2, and, in particular, the mechanisms responsible for amplification of high latitude temperatures remain highly debated. The geological record provides a means to evaluate the consequences [...]
Sediment redox dynamics in an oligotrophic deep-water lake in Tierra del Fuego: insights from Fe isotopes
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Fe speciation and Fe isotopes have been widely used to reconstruct past basin dynamics and water redox conditions. However, sedimentation and early diagenesis of such proxies eventually alter any primary climate signal. In this work, we disentangled the processes occurring at the redox front below the sediment-water interface of a ventilated deep-water lake (Lago Fagnano, Argentina/Chile). A [...]
A systematic approach and software for the analysis of point patterns on river networks
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Many geomorphic phenomena such as bank failures, landslide dams, riffle-pool sequences and knickpoints can be modelled as spatial point processes. However, as the locations of these phenomena are constrained to lie on or alongside rivers, their analysis must account for the geometry and topology of river networks. Here, we introduce a new numeric class in TopoToolbox called Point Pattern on [...]
COVID-19 Pandemic – Possible implications and effects of monsoons in the Indian sub-continent.
Published: 2020-06-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The world is facing an unprecedented time owing to the ongoing COVID 19 pandemic. The research community is racing to find a solution to contain the outbreak, leading to the proposals of many possible routes of the virus transmission and its dynamics. The Indian sub-continent is about to experience the monsoon season, which often leads to heavy rainfall and flooding in the region, affecting the [...]
Heat does not physically flow in the ways assumed by greenhouse-warming theory
Published: 2020-06-07
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Heat is currently defined as an amount of thermal energy flowing each second per unit area. Temperature is assumed to result from the net amount of heat flowing—the sum of all radiative forcings. Yet direct and unambiguous observations of Nature show that macroscopic temperature of solid matter results from a very broad spectrum of sub-microscopic oscillations of all the bonds holding matter [...]
Strain migration during multiphase extension, Stord Basin, northern North Sea rift
Published: 2020-06-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In multirifted regions, rift-related strain varies along and across the basin during and between each extensional event, and the location of maximum extension often differs between rift phases. Despite having a general understanding of multiphase rift kinematics, it remains unclear why some parts of the rift are abandoned, with strain accumulating in previously less deformed areas, and how [...]
Carbon fractions in the world’s dead wood
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Alarming increases in tree mortality due to environmental change suggest that contributions of dead wood to global carbon (C) cycles are rapidly increasing 1-3, with dead wood C flux estimates already approximating total annual anthropogenic C emissions 4. Quantifying C in dead wood critically depends on accurate estimates of dead wood C fractions (CFs) to convert dead woody biomass into C. Most [...]
Architecture and controls of thick, intensely bioturbated, storm-influenced shallow-marine successions: an example from the Jurassic Neuquén Basin (Argentina)
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
Thick (>100 m-thick), highly bioturbated storm-influenced shallow-marine deposits are not frequent in the stratigraphic record, but they tend to be unusually common in aggradational to retrogradational successions. Individual storm-event beds have typically low preservation in these successions, yet depositional settings are characterized on the basis of storms processes. We present a [...]
Mechanical Response of Shallow Crust to Groundwater Storage Variations: Inferences from Deformation and Seismic Observations in the Eastern Southern Alps, Italy
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Changes in continental water storage generate vertical surface deformation, induce crustal stress perturbations and modulate seismicity rates. However, the degree to which regional changes in terrestrial water content influence crustal stresses and the occurrence of earthquakes remains an open problem. We show how changes in groundwater storage, computed for a ~1000 km^2 basin, focus deformation [...]
A novel rules-based shoreface translation model for predicting future coastal change: ShoreTrans
Published: 2020-06-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Predicting change to global shorelines presents an increasing challenge as sea-level rise (SLR) accelerates. Many shoreline prediction models use variations of the ‘Bruun-rule’, failing to account for relevant processes and morphologic complexity. To address this, we introduce a simple rules-based model (ShoreTrans) designed for complex, real-world profiles that predicts change across a wide [...]
Eruptive dynamics in Plinian silicic eruptions
Published: 2020-06-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Plinian eruptions are characterized by high magma discharge rates and pyroclastic material containing extraordinary large numbers of bubbles. Upon ascent to the surface magma decompresses and volatiles become supersaturated, causing bubbles to nucleate with a rate dependent on the degree of supersaturation. Thus, the conventional view is that the number of bubbles nucleating within the erupting [...]
Laboratory experiments and grain based discrete element numerical simulations investigating the thermo-mechanical behaviour of sandstone
Published: 2020-05-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Thermo-mechanical loading can occur in numerous engineering geological environments, from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Different minerals and micro-defects in rock cause heterogeneity at a grain scale, affecting the mechanical and thermal properties of the material. Changes in strength and stiffness can occur from exposure to elevated temperatures, with the accumulation of localised [...]