Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A machine learning approach for detecting biofouling in oceanographic data
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Autonomous ocean observing platforms collect long-term biogeochemical time series, but sensor degradation from biofouling introduces progressive biases that contaminate the climate record. This work focuses on the BGC-Argo fleet of profiling floats, where optical sensors measuring chlorophyll-a and backscatter are particularly susceptible to biofouling. Current detection relies on per-float [...]
Validation of Baer-Babinet's Law using modern Landsat retrievals
Published: 2026-07-10
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In this study, I use a modern river erosion dataset created by Langhorst and Pavelsky (LP) in 2023 (LP 2023) to validate the long-standing contention behind Baer-Babinet's Law (BBL). This law postulates that rivers preferentially erode the right bank of rivers in the Northern Hemisphere and the left bank in the Southern Hemisphere, as a result of the Coriolis Force. Albert Einstein also published [...]
Stable estimates of when global temperature thresholds will be crossed: least-squares fits as the end date of the fitted span is reduced
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Reliable estimates of when global mean temperature will exceed the Paris Agreement's 2°C threshold1 are generally derived from emissions scenarios and climate models rather than from the observed temperature record itself. This study investigates whether the observed warming trajectory alone can provide a stable empirical estimate of the crossing date. Least-squares exponential, quadratic and [...]
Surface, not exhaust: a multi-sensor satellite test bounds the local thermal footprint of hyperscale data centres
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Whether hyperscale data centres (DCs) warm their surroundings has become a live policy question with directly conflicting answers: a coarse-resolution satellite preprint attributes ~2 °C of land-surface warming to facilities worldwide (Marinoni et al 2026), while peer-reviewed mobile transects near Phoenix measure +0.7-0.9 °C of near-ground air warming within a few hundred metres downwind (Sailor [...]
A multi-indicator framework for assessing the likelihood of ENSO impacts across southern Africa
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of seasonal predictability for southern Africa, yet operational guidance rarely conveys which agriculturally relevant variables it can skillfully predict, or where ENSO impacts are most likely. We present an operational analysis framework that converts an ENSO state, classified by phase and strength, into gridded, analogue-composite [...]
Increased North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Wake of a "Super" El Niño Event
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is among the most influential modes of climate variability on Earth, dramatically reshaping global weather patterns. It is therefore a key driver of regional extremes and has been recognized as a key risk predictor for a wide range of natural hazards, from drought and wildfire to extreme rainfall and flooding. Considerable attention has been paid to the [...]
Coastal plain retention modulates flashflood chlorophylla anomalies in the Red Sea: a CPRI based multisite analysis
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Research Methods in Life Sciences
The eastern Red Sea coastal margin is among the most oligotrophic large marine ecosystems on Earth, where episodic nutrient pulses from flash floods can transiently fuel phytoplankton blooms. Yet, the extent to which upstream coastal-plain geomorphology modulates the magnitude of these flood-driven chlorophylla (Chla) responses remains poorly quantified. We tested the hypothesis that narrower [...]
Resolving microscale surface temperature variability during a heatwave using a dense sensor network
Published: 2026-06-29
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
High-resolution observations of near-surface temperature variability are essential for understanding heat exposure during extreme weather events, yet are rarely available from dense, regularly spaced in situ measurement grids, with most existing observations derived from unevenly distributed sensor networks. Here, we analyse temperature measurements derived from a dense network of over 3,000 [...]
Quantifying the probability of committed AMOC collapse
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC would have catastrophic consequences for societies. We quantify the risk of committed AMOC collapse using large ensembles of Earth system model simulations. Under conservative assumptions of Greenland ice sheet melt, the probability that collapse is already committed is 10%, rising to 80% by 2100 under worst case emissions. [...]
Toward Fit-for-Purpose Evapotranspiration Observations
Published: 2026-06-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Evapotranspiration (ET) underpins water, energy, and carbon cycling, yet remains among the least observed hydrologic fluxes, creating a persistent paradox: hydrology is advancing rapidly through artificial intelligence and data-driven methods while its observational foundation remains sparse and fragmented. Eddy covariance provides robust ET measurements, but high cost and operational demands [...]
Global Gravitational-Resonant Waves in the Arctic Basin: Visualizing Hidden Ocean Macrodynamics using 22-Year Passive Microwave Radiometry Data
Published: 2026-06-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The dynamics of the Arctic Ocean's sea ice cover are traditionally viewed through the lens of atmospheric forcing, ocean currents, and thermodynamic processes. In this paper, we propose a fundamentally new paradigm: the sea ice cover acts not as an elastic membrane transmitting mechanical stress, but as a passive two-dimensional indicator (analogous to Chladni figures) that visualizes a [...]
Tropical cyclones intensify mesoscale eddy variability and accelerate Western Boundary Current instability
Published: 2026-06-17
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones strongly disrupt the upper ocean, yet their influence on mesoscale variability in western boundary current systems remains poorly quantified. The Gulf of Mexico, where the Loop Current regularly sheds large warm-core eddies, offers an ideal setting to examine how hurricanes reshape mesoscale dynamics. Using a high-resolution ocean model and hurricane-denial experiments, we [...]
ENSO-Driven Modulation of the Caribbean Subsurface Salinity Maximum
Published: 2026-06-16
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study identifies El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the primary driver of interannual subsurface salinity variability in the Caribbean Sea. Using 30 years of high-resolution, data-assimilative ocean reanalysis (1993–2022), we show that the Subsurface Salinity Maximum (SSM) closely tracks ENSO cycles: El Niño events correspond to a saltier and deeper SSM, while La Niña drives a fresher [...]
Why the Earth Exhibits Interhemispheric Albedo Symmetry: Erosion–formation asymmetry of low-cloud responses to circulation reorganization.
Published: 2026-06-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth exhibits a striking near symmetry in interhemispheric mean albedo despite substantial asymmetries in surface properties, aerosols, and geography. Whether this symmetry is coincidental or dynamically constrained remains unresolved. Here we present a minimal theoretical framework showing that a moist atmosphere provides a physically constrained, but bounded, tendency to oppose [...]
From Public Weather Images to House-Scale Convective Nowcasting: A Latency-Aware, Multi-Source Fusion and Alerting System Built Entirely from Open Data
Published: 2026-06-12
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Short-range convective warning systems are usually evaluated as gridded meteorological products, but many real decisions are point decisions: whether a specific place will be affected in the next minutes to hours, whether the event is electrically active, and when conditions will improve. This paper presents RADARES, a low-cost operational nowcasting and alerting system built entirely from public [...]