Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Mid-Ocean Ridge Volcanism (Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 3rd edition, book chapter)
Published: 2025-03-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The vast majority of the Earth’s volcanism takes place in the deep ocean along mid-ocean ridges (MORs), yet because it is difficult to detect and observe, it is also relatively poorly understood. MOR volcanism occurs where tectonic plates spread apart and mainly produces effusive basaltic fissure eruptions where dikes reach the surface. The character and frequency of volcanism varies greatly as [...]
An Improved Methodology to Estimate Cross-Scale Kinetic Energy Transfers from Third-Order Structure Functions using Regularized Least-Squares
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Analysis, Applied Statistics, Fluid Dynamics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Several methods exist for estimating cross-scale kinetic energy (KE) transfers; however, they are ill-adapted for sparse ocean observations, hindering the study of oceanic KE transfers. A newly developed third-order structure function $D3(r)$ framework allows estimation of KE injection rates $\epsilon_j(k)$ and KE transfers $F(k)$ across scales using sparse data. This approach requires inverse [...]
Weakening of AMOC linked to past Greenland Ice Sheet retreat
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to occur under multiple scenarios of future warming. However, the effect of meltwater from a decaying Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on AMOC is uncertain. Using a basin-wide network of North Atlantic sediment cores, we show that the largescale melting of the GrIS during a previous interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c [...]
Resolved tropical cyclones trigger CO2 uptake and phytoplankton bloom in an Earth system model simulation
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The ocean carbon cycle is directly impacted by storms in the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly, are known to drive intense air-sea CO2 fluxes and to trigger phytoplankton blooms. However, the latest generation of Earth system models (ESM) cannot realistically represent TCs due to their coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-200 km grid spacing). Here, we present the first [...]
Large reductions in United States heat extremes found in overshoot simulations with SPEAR
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident in the observational record, and these increases are expected to be further amplified in future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally to emissions reductions and declines of greenhouse gases later in the 21st century, such as through the [...]
Solar control of global mean temperature outweighed since 1940s by anthropogenic warming (by airborne soot, not CO2): literature synthesis
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Primarily solar control of global warming and cooling for the last 9,000 years is proven by the striking likeness between published graphs of (1) average near-surface air temperature (from proxies and, since 1880, NASA-GISS thermometer data) and (2) solar-magnetic output. Graph-to-graph visual cross-matching of spikes (peaks, troughs) and of multi-century trends reveals a ~150-year temperature [...]
Is abyssal dark oxygen production even possible at all?
Published: 2025-03-10
Subjects: Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Physical principles need to be respected when interpreting controversial findings such as the production of abyssal oxygen. Such extraordinary claims must be analysed carefully before a large research effort is mounted and valuable human and financial resources are wasted based on flawed data. We are aware of the sensitivities around polymetallic nodules and their potential value as a source of [...]
Generative Data Assimilation for Surface Ocean State Estimation from Multi-Modal Satellite Observations
Published: 2025-03-05
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimating the surface ocean state at mesoscale eddy-resolving scales is essential for understanding the role of eddies in climate and marine ecosystems. Satellites provide multi-modal observations through sea surface height, temperature (SST), and salinity (SSS). However, each variable is observed with varying resolutions and sparsity, while some variables, such as surface currents, are not yet [...]
Reduced Precipitation on Rapa Nui During the Decline of the Moai Culture
Published: 2025-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
From approximately 1200-1600 CE, Polynesian settlers on the island of Rapa Nui engaged in megalithic monument construction, crafting hundreds of Ahu platforms and Moai statues from volcanic bedrock. The decline of this tradition has intrigued archaeologists for decades. The most widely disseminated hypothesis surrounding the demise of the Ahu Moai culture suggests that the Rapanui overexploited [...]
Airborne remote sensing of concurrent submesoscale dynamics and phytoplankton
Published: 2025-02-12
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Submesoscale dynamics can induce significant vertical fluxes of phytoplankton, nutrients, and carbon, resulting in biological and climatological impacts such as enhanced phytoplankton production, phytoplankton community shifts, and carbon export. However, resolving these dynamics is challenging due to their rapid evolution (hours to days) and small spatial scales (1-10 km) of variability. The [...]
Recent rise of water levels of Lake Nakuru, Kenya: Unraveling the Changing Precipitation Regime and its Climatic Drivers
Published: 2025-01-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Kenyan Rift Valley has experienced an abrupt and significant rise in its lake levels since 2010, followed by a more rapid rise since 2020. This paper examines the dynamic changes in precipitation patterns and their climatic drivers in the Kenyan Rift Valley region from 1981 to 2021, focusing on Lake Nakuru. Notably, in 2010, a pivotal change point in precipitation aligns with the rising water [...]
OceanTracker 0.5: Fast Adaptable Lagrangian Particle Tracking in Structured and Unstructured Grids
Published: 2025-01-16
Subjects: Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Particle tracking is frequently used to compute particle movements within hydrodynamic ocean models; however, modelling millions of particles is computationally challenging. OceanTracker is designed to minimise the time required to obtain results from particle tracking. Firstly, by being computationally fast, it enables users to scale to large numbers of particles, thus obtaining better [...]
Spatial variability of marine heatwaves in the Chesapeake Bay
Published: 2025-01-11
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and one of the most productive estuaries in the United States. Like many estuaries, rising global temperatures have impacted this ecologically important zone. Marine heatwaves, extreme temperature events, are increasingly common in the Chesapeake Bay. Although marine heatwaves evolve across space and time, a complete spatial picture of marine heatwaves in the Bay [...]
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing
Published: 2025-01-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance (Soden et al. 2018; Gregory et al. 2020; Forster et al. 2021, 2024). Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating [...]
Monthly Sea-Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea-Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation
Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Historical observations of Earth's climate underpin our knowledge and predictions of climate variability and change. However, the observations are incomplete and uncertain, and existing datasets based on these observations typically do not assimilate observations simultaneously across different components of the climate system, yielding inconsistencies that limit understanding of coupled climate [...]