Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Recent intensification of eastern Pacific ENSO is unprecedented across the last millennium
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due to data scarcity and climate model biases, making projections of future climate hazards uncertain. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past [...]
Reduced geomagnetic shielding increased UV-B radiation at Earth’s surface during the Laschamps Event
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Biochemistry, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Exposure to excess UV-B radiation can harm organisms through DNA damage and oxidative stress, and has likely been a key ecological and evolutionary driver throughout Earth’s history. Here, we show UV-B at Earth’s surface was significantly increased during the Laschamps Event, the last major geomagnetic excursion ca. 41ka BP. During the Laschamps, we find significant and prolonged (lasting [...]
Microphysical Evolution of Precipitation During Convective Storm Life-Cycles and Implications for Radar QPE: Combined Radar–Disdrometer Observations from Kolkata, Eastern India
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Through dedicated observations with a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer at Dumdum (22.65°N, 88.43°E) and the S-band Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) (22.57°N, 88.35°E) over Kolkata, this study provides in-depth analysis of drop size distribution (DSD) evolution over each stage from initiation to decay of contrasting convective storms over Kolkata, eastern India due to its complicated terrain in monsoon [...]
Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification
Published: 2026-04-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less [...]
Storm life cycle modulates extreme hydroclimate impact risk: a Great Lakes Region case study
Published: 2026-04-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) drive hydroclimate variability in the Great Lakes, yet their impacts vary widely between events. Here, we classify ETCs into two storm types using an unsupervised clustering approach based on storm properties and evolution. The resulting classes differ systematically in life cycle stage at Great Lakes entry. Using bootstrap-estimated risk ratios and risk differences, [...]
Beyond the 100-kyr and 41-kyr dichotomy: ~76- and ~52-kyr signals and forbidden periodicities in Quaternary glacial cycles
Published: 2026-04-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
While the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) is often termed a shift from 41-kyr to ∼100-kyr glacial cycles, this binary perspective fails to capture the nuanced spectral evolution of Quaternary climate. Using weighted wavelet spectral analysis of benthic δ18O records, we identified previously underappreciated signals—∼52 kyr before 1.2 Ma and ∼76 kyr thereafter—marking the MPT's onset. These [...]
Seasonal Shift in the Dominant Pathway Energizing Mesoscale Eddies in the California Current
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mesoscale eddies are the dominant reservoir of kinetic energy in the ocean, yet the mechanisms that generate and maintain them in eastern boundary current systems remain incompletely assessed. Here we use a 1-km resolution simulation of the California Current System (CCS) to diagnose and quantify the processes that supply kinetic energy to the mesoscale band. A pronounced seasonal transition is [...]
A simple model for wind-driven ocean circulation in unbounded domains
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
An idealized barotropic model satisfying a Stommel–type vorticity balance is formulated for wind–driven circulation in a zonally unbounded channel with spatially varying bottom drag, motivated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current through Drake Passage. An explicit solution is obtained in the high–drag passage and a Sverdrup interior with western boundary layer is derived in the weak–drag basin; [...]
Global warming strengthens atmospheric ducting
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Atmospheric ducts (ADs) provide efficient electromagnetic wave channels for beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) propagation and can serve as a sensitive diagnostic factor for the change of lower atmosphere. Based on the ERA5 model-level reanalysis data (1979–2024), a global-scale assessment of the response of AD evolution to global warming has been revealed for the first time. The occurrence probability, [...]
A snag for nutrient fertilization: decoupled production and export
Published: 2026-03-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Microbiology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interest in nutrient fertilization waned after inconclusive field experiments, but has resurged. Collating Southern Ocean \textit{in-situ} observations and available fertilization simulations, we find phytoplankton primary production and organic carbon export are uncorrelated in the largest high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region, while model estimates cast doubt on realistic deployments [...]
The Oceanic Response to Winds in the Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at the end of the 1970s
Published: 2026-03-28
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The sea ice extent (SIE) in the Southern Ocean experienced a substantial decline in the late 1970s, although less pronounced than the one observed in 2016. Though several studies explain the decline since 2016, the 1970s drop is critical in understanding the long-term variability of SIE. To investigate the underlying mechanisms for this decline, we conducted wind stress-forced multi- ensemble [...]
How well do global ocean approaches constrain local pCO2?
Published: 2026-03-22
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The ocean absorbs 29% of humanity’s annual anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the future of climate change is strongly dependent on how this sink evolves. Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) approaches to enhance this sink are actively being developed. In the interest of understanding how well state-of-the-art global products and models can help to distinguish mCDR signals from [...]
Fluctuation-induced dissipation for ocean surface waves
Published: 2026-03-22
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Phase averaging is a one-time operation. Irreversibletransport is not.Here we identify a coupling hidden in the Navier-Stokesequations for surface waves propagating through turbulencewhose one-time phase average vanishes but whose two-timeautocorrelation yields a finite Green-Kubo frictioncoefficient.Classical phase averaging removes this stochastic vortexforce, the bilinear coupling between wave [...]
Are high-resolution urban datasets necessary for accurate heat exposure modelling in cities?
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Accurately capturing the spatial variability of urban heat exposure is important for planning heat-resilient cities. While regional climate models have historically simplified urban characteristics, high-resolution urban morphological datasets now present an opportunity to produce spatially accurate heat maps. In this vein, this study evaluates four morphological datasets for Sydney, Australia in [...]
Emerging Shift in the Indian Summer Monsoon Sensitivity to Equatorial Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Insights from High-Resolution AGCM SST Patch Experiments
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall exhibits strong sensitivity to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across four Indo-Pacific nodal regions: The Western and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO and EEIO), the Western Pacific (WPAC), and the Niño3.4 region. Historically, positive ISM rainfall anomalies are associated with warming in WEIO and WPAC, while warming in EEIO and Niño3.4 [...]