Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Increased North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Wake of a "Super" El Niño Event
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is among the most influential modes of climate variability on Earth, dramatically reshaping global weather patterns. It is therefore a key driver of regional extremes and has been recognized as a key risk predictor for a wide range of natural hazards, from drought and wildfire to extreme rainfall and flooding. Considerable attention has been paid to the [...]
Coastal plain retention modulates flashflood chlorophylla anomalies in the Red Sea: a CPRI based multisite analysis
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Research Methods in Life Sciences
The eastern Red Sea coastal margin is among the most oligotrophic large marine ecosystems on Earth, where episodic nutrient pulses from flash floods can transiently fuel phytoplankton blooms. Yet, the extent to which upstream coastal-plain geomorphology modulates the magnitude of these flood-driven chlorophylla (Chla) responses remains poorly quantified. We tested the hypothesis that narrower [...]
Resolving microscale near surface temperature variability during a heatwave using a dense sensor network
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
High-resolution measurements of near-surface temperature are essential for understanding environmental responses to extreme weather events, yet are rarely available from dense, regularly spaced in situ measurement grids. Here, we analyse temperature measurements derived from a dense network of over 3,000 nodal seismometers deployed across a 6 km² area in North Yorkshire, UK, during the July 2022 [...]
Quantifying the probability of committed AMOC collapse
Published: 2026-06-27
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC would have catastrophic consequences for societies. We quantify the risk of committed AMOC collapse using large ensembles of Earth system model simulations. Under conservative assumptions of Greenland ice sheet melt, the probability that collapse is already committed is 10%, rising to 80% by 2100 under worst case emissions. [...]
Toward Fit-for-Purpose Evapotranspiration Observations
Published: 2026-06-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Evapotranspiration (ET) underpins water, energy, and carbon cycling, yet remains among the least observed hydrologic fluxes, creating a persistent paradox: hydrology is advancing rapidly through artificial intelligence and data-driven methods while its observational foundation remains sparse and fragmented. Eddy covariance provides robust ET measurements, but high cost and operational demands [...]
Global Gravitational-Resonant Waves in the Arctic Basin: Visualizing Hidden Ocean Macrodynamics using 22-Year Passive Microwave Radiometry Data
Published: 2026-06-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The dynamics of the Arctic Ocean's sea ice cover are traditionally viewed through the lens of atmospheric forcing, ocean currents, and thermodynamic processes. In this paper, we propose a fundamentally new paradigm: the sea ice cover acts not as an elastic membrane transmitting mechanical stress, but as a passive two-dimensional indicator (analogous to Chladni figures) that visualizes a [...]
Tropical cyclones intensify mesoscale eddy variability and accelerate Western Boundary Current instability
Published: 2026-06-18
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones strongly disrupt the upper ocean, yet their influence on mesoscale variability in western boundary current systems remains poorly quantified. The Gulf of Mexico, where the Loop Current regularly sheds large warm-core eddies, offers an ideal setting to examine how hurricanes reshape mesoscale dynamics. Using a high-resolution ocean model and hurricane-denial experiments, we [...]
ENSO-Driven Modulation of the Caribbean Subsurface Salinity Maximum
Published: 2026-06-17
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study identifies El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the primary driver of interannual subsurface salinity variability in the Caribbean Sea. Using 30 years of high-resolution, data-assimilative ocean reanalysis (1993–2022), we show that the Subsurface Salinity Maximum (SSM) closely tracks ENSO cycles: El Niño events correspond to a saltier and deeper SSM, while La Niña drives a fresher [...]
Why the Earth Exhibits Interhemispheric Albedo Symmetry: Erosion–formation asymmetry of low-cloud responses to circulation reorganization.
Published: 2026-06-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth exhibits a striking near symmetry in interhemispheric mean albedo despite substantial asymmetries in surface properties, aerosols, and geography. Whether this symmetry is coincidental or dynamically constrained remains unresolved. Here we present a minimal theoretical framework showing that a moist atmosphere provides a physically constrained, but bounded, tendency to oppose [...]
From Public Weather Images to House-Scale Convective Nowcasting: A Latency-Aware, Multi-Source Fusion and Alerting System Built Entirely from Open Data
Published: 2026-06-12
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Short-range convective warning systems are usually evaluated as gridded meteorological products, but many real decisions are point decisions: whether a specific place will be affected in the next minutes to hours, whether the event is electrically active, and when conditions will improve. This paper presents RADARES, a low-cost operational nowcasting and alerting system built entirely from public [...]
Novel Data-driven High-Frequency Mass Change Models from GRACE orbit residuals
Published: 2026-06-12
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Glaciology, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a fully data-driven framework for transforming residual K-band range-rate (KBRR) data from GRACE into 5-day mass change models expressed in Equivalent Water Height (EWH). The approach first derives residual range and Line-of-Sight Gravity Differences (LGDs) from monthly post-fit residual range-rates and combines them with 5-day post-fit residuals. A hybrid formulation, merging LGD- and [...]
Dress Rehearsal: 2023 El Niño Anticipatory Action Somalia, in the Shadow of 1997
Published: 2026-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography
In 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positiveIn 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding [...]
Mangrove Loss and Growing Coastal Flood Exposure in East Malaysia: A Multi-Decadal Analysis with Sea Level Rise Projections
Published: 2026-06-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
Mangrove forests provide critical coastal flood protection, yet their ongoing loss in combination with sea level rise creates a compounding exposure dynamic that remains poorly quantified at sub-national scale across Southeast Asia. This study presents the first systematic, multi-decadal analysis of mangrove loss and coastal flood exposure change for the 10 km coastal buffer of East Malaysia [...]
Detection, Classification, and Characterization of Compound Coastal Flooding along the Gulf and Southeastern U.S. Coasts
Published: 2026-06-09
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Compound coastal flooding, driven by the concurrent or sequential exceedance of storm surge and river discharge thresholds, poses disproportionate risk to Gulf and Southeast US coastal communities, yet systematic observation-based characterization of its spatial distribution, typological structure, and joint intensity remains limited. This study investigates compound coastal flooding using a [...]
Impacts of Potential Solar Radiation Modification: Systematic Review Reveals Challenges and Opportunities
Published: 2026-06-06
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Plant Sciences
Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a proposed temporary intervention to limit global warming while mitigation efforts continue. Understanding its potential consequences for human and natural systems is essential for informed deliberations. We conducted a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature on SRM impacts published through May 2024, identifying 289 studies, including 261 primary [...]