Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
New methods for predicting the start and other features of the UK (Northern Hemisphere) Sporadic E (Es) radio propagation season
Published: 2025-06-22
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The sporadic E mode of propagation is briefly described and reviewed. The question is posed could we ever predict the start and duration of the main propagation season. A new hypothesis is proposed based on the modulation of planetary weather and wave circulations and their effect on the Es
Deep Learning for Ionogram Parameter Extraction: A Time-Series Approach to Ionospheric Monitoring
Published: 2025-06-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Ionograms provide a direct measurement of the ionosphere’s electron density profile and its irregularities. By examining critical frequencies researchers can identify key parameters—such as the F region critical frequency (foF2), the height of maximum electron density (hmF2), and the presence of Spread F irregularities—that are vital for understanding signal propagation, space weather effects, [...]
Putting the Meteors back in Meteorology
Published: 2025-06-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The effects of three extra-terrestrial drivers on UK weather and short-term climate are considered namely, meteor showers, solar flux and GCR on the interdecadal climate in the UK. At least in the study period, these are seen to be in control with no evidence of warming. The UK temperature anomaly can be accounted for by a simple algorithm. In the UK in the inter-decadal period 2005-2011 [...]
Confirming that Modern Global Warming is Predominantly Geomagnetically Driven and Seeking other Drivers by Employing Latitudinal bands.
Published: 2025-06-10
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The hypothesis that most of modern warming is geomagnetically driven is tested and shown to be correct. Models employing single and multiple geomagnetic parameters including both North and South Dip Pole positions, Tilt and Dipole Strength are developed and tested. Pole movement with accompanying changs in Tilt and Dipole strength changes particle precipitation, changes cloud, lowers albedo [...]
Validation and Metrics for Emissions Detection by Satellite
Published: 2025-05-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Detecting and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from individual sites by satellite remote sensing has emerged as a powerful new method in recent years. As more and more players enter the field, based on a variety of technologies for both instrumentation and data processing, there is a need for standardized methods for evaluating the performance of these systems. This document is focused on the [...]
The Mesozoic Conundrum: Global Albedo Factors Resolve the Lack of Correlation Between Temperatures and CO2 Concentrations.
Published: 2025-05-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Plant Sciences
The "Mesozoic Conundrum" refers to the lack of correlation between CO₂ atmospheric concentration and global mean surface temperatures in Mesozoic climate reconstructions (Judd et al., 2024). Here, I show that Mesozoic forest cover, proxied by carbon burial flux (Nelsen et al., 2016), correlates strongly (R²=0.88, p<0.01) with GMST across the Mesozoic (252–66 Ma before present). The analysis [...]
The Motion and Tilts of Subsurface Floats due to Surface Waves
Published: 2025-05-16
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subsurface and nearly neutrally-buoyant floats can be stable, well-behaved platforms for measuring ocean dynamics in the near-surface wave zone. Here, we measure and model the wave-induced tilt of one such platform. We use data from Lagrangian floats built at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL/UW) and carrying a Nortek Signature1000 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler with an AHRS (Attitude and [...]
A Review of Atmospheric Micro/Nanoplastics: Insights into Source and Fate for Modelling Studies
Published: 2025-05-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences
Micro/nanoplastics (MNPs), as emerging pollutants, have attracted increasing attention due to their potential adverse effects on human health, ecosystems, and climate. The rapid, turbulent, and large-scale nature of atmospheric transport facilitates both horizontal and vertical movement of MNPs over long distances within a short time, largely independent of topographical constraints, thereby [...]
Initial assessment of all-season Arctic sea ice thickness from ICESat-2
Published: 2025-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
We present an initial assessment of all-season Arctic sea ice thickness estimates from ICESat-2 by combining freeboard retrievals with all-season SnowModel-LG snow loading. ICESat-2 captures the key regional and seasonal patterns of Arctic sea ice variability and shows good agreement with CryoSat-2 all-season estimates, including regional patterns of inter-annual variability in summer ice [...]
Characterizing compound physical and biogeochemical extremes in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Published: 2025-05-05
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Discrete environmental stressors, such as prolonged periods of extreme temperature or low oxygen, threaten the functioning of marine ecosystems. While considerable attention has been given to studying extremes occurring in isolation, our understanding of such events co-occurring in the water column–referred to as multi-stressor events or compound extremes–is still limited, despite their [...]
Cooling after net zero
Published: 2025-05-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Climate policy aims to limit global warming by achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Climate models indicate that achieving net-zero emissions yields a nearly constant global temperature over the following decades. However, whether temperatures remain stable in the centuries after net-zero emissions is uncertain, as models produce conflicting results. Here, we explain how this disagreement [...]
Evaluating Turbulence Parameterizations at Gray Zone Resolutions for the Ocean Surface Boundary Layer
Published: 2025-04-30
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Turbulent mixing in ocean boundary layers is often fully parameterized as a subgrid-scale process in realistic ocean simulations. However, recent submesoscale modeling studies have advanced to a horizontal grid spacing of O(10 m) that is comparable to, or even smaller than, the typical depth of the turbulent surface boundary layer. Meanwhile, efforts toward realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) [...]
The impact hypothesis as a mechanism for the origin of the Amazon basin - analysis of antipodal impacts of celestial bodies and their impact on global morphotectonics
Published: 2025-04-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Amazon Basin is the largest fluvial system on Earth, yet its central subsidence and asymmetrical drainage pattern remain partially unexplained by traditional geological models. This study introduces a novel impact-based hypothesis, proposing that the Amazon depression is a result of tectonic deformation at the intersection of seismic shockwaves originating from two major planetary impacts: [...]
A realistic climate strategy
Published: 2025-04-12
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
The international climate strategy is failing. Current policies will act too slowly to prevent rising temperatures from crossing critical climate tipping points. IPCC assessments underestimate the non-linear risks and catastrophic costs of overshooting Paris Agreement targets. Opponents of solar geoengineering cite concerns about moral hazard and other potential risks; however, at this juncture [...]
Impact of Marine Heatwaves and Coldwaves on CO2 in the South China Sea
Published: 2025-04-10
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea, while marine cold waves (MCWs) occur intermittently. Both phenomena influence the air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2) at the air-sea interface. This study uses inversion and reanalysis data, along with FCO2 diagnostic methods, to assess their impact on FCO2 in the South China Sea from 2003 to 2019. The [...]