Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AI
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work [...]
California margin temperatures modulate regional circulation and extreme summer precipitation in the desert Southwest
Published: 2023-06-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
In August 2022, Death Valley, the driest place in North America, experienced record flooding from summertime rainfall associated with the North American monsoon (NAM). Given the socioeconomic cost of these type of events, there is a dire need to understand their drivers and future statistics. Existing theory predicts that increases in the intensity of precipitation is a robust response to [...]
Evolution of lake surface temperatures of high-altitude lakes in the European Alpine region under climate change
Published: 2023-05-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lake Surface Temperature (LST) is a key characteristic that reflects meteorological and climatological influences on lakes. In general, there is limited LST data from high elevation lakes available as these areas are remote and not part of regular monitoring programs. Nonetheless, it is crucial to understand their response to climate warming for the development of effective management strategies [...]
Maxar’s WorldView-3 Enables Low-Concentration Methane Detection from Space
Published: 2023-05-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Methane is large contributor to climate change; for this reason, detecting and eliminating sources of methane emissions is a key element to minimizing the effects of on-going climate change. While there are a variety of methods currently used to detect methane emissions, ranging from ground-based sensors to aerial sensors like drones and aircraft, satellite detections provide a broad-area [...]
Inferring Inherent Optical Properties of Sea Ice Using 360-Degree Camera Radiance Measurements
Published: 2023-05-18
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Optics, Physics
In this work, we demonstrate the utilization of a compact, consumer-grade 360-degree camera for measuring the in-ice spectral angular radiance distribution. This novel technique allows for the instantaneous acquisition of all radiometric quantities at a given depth with a non-intrusive probe. This gives the opportunity to monitor the light field structure (mean cosines) from the atmosphere to the [...]
Different mechanisms of Arctic first-year sea-ice ridge consolidation observed during the MOSAiC expedition
Published: 2023-05-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sea-ice ridges constitute a large fraction of the ice volume in the Arctic Ocean, yet we know little about the evolution of these ice masses. Here we examine the thermal and morphological evolution of an Arctic first-year sea-ice ridge, from its formation to advanced melt. Initially the mean keel depth was 5.6 m and mean sail height was 0.7 m. The initial rubble macroporosity (fraction of [...]
Pushing the Nyquist-Shannon limit: exploiting multi-fidelity observations to provide high-resolution weather maps for climate services, early warning centres and weather forecasts
Published: 2023-04-28
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The pursue of a higher-resolution gridded climate data and weather forecast requires an unprecedented number of surface observations to model the sub-mesoscale. National meteorological services (NMS) have practical and financial limitations to the number of observations it can collect, therefore, opening the door to crowdsourced weather initiatives might be an interesting option to mitigate data [...]
Calling for a National Model Benchmarking Facility
Published: 2023-04-14
Subjects: Biology, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Systems Biology
The modern world uses predictive computer models for many important purposes, including weather predictions, epidemic management, flood forecasting and warnings, and economic policymaking. We need to know how much we can trust the projections of these models, not only to achieve more accurate projections for systems, but also to undertake scientific learning about systems by incrementally testing [...]
Impact of Climate Change on Mangrove Dependent Livelihoods through Climate Justice Lens in Lamu County, Kenya
Published: 2023-04-14
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Majority of Lamu people depend on mangrove and fishery for trade and livelihood. However, their livelihood is now threatened by climate change which is increasingly becoming a local threat in the region. Due to destructive impacts of climate change on mangroves ecosystem, most of mangrove traders and fisherfolk in Lamu Kenya have seen their source of livelihood shrinking day by day. The study [...]
Spatio-temporal variability of small-scale leads based on helicopter winter sea ice surface temperatures
Published: 2023-04-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Surface temperature is crucial in studying the Arctic climate, particularly during winter. We examine 1 m resolution surface temperature maps of 35 helicopter flights between 02 October 2019 and 23 April 2020, recorded during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC). The seasonal cycle of the average surface temperature spans from 265.6 K on 02 October [...]
Sea ice concentration satellite retrievals influenced by surface changes due to warm air intrusions: A case study from the MOSAiC expedition.
Published: 2023-03-24
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Warm air intrusions over Arctic sea ice can rapidly change the snow and ice surface conditions and can alter sea ice concentration (SIC) estimates derived from satellite- based microwave radiometry without altering the true SIC. Here we focus on two warm moist air intrusions that produced surface glazing during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate [...]
Crowdsourcing air temperature data for the evaluation of the urban microscale model PALM—a case study in central Europe
Published: 2023-03-21
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
In summertime and during heat events the urban heat island can negatively impact public health in urban areas. In the context of climate change, climate adaptation receives more attention in urban planning. Microscale urban climate modelling can identify risk areas and evaluate adaptation strategies. Concurrently, evaluating the model results with observational data is essential. So far, model [...]
The Role of Diffusivity Changes on The Pattern of Warming in Energy Balance Models
Published: 2023-03-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Atmospheric macroturbulence transports energy down the equator-to-pole gradient. This is represented by diffusion in energy balance models (EBMs), and EBMs have proven valuable to understanding and quantifying the pattern of surface temperature change. They typically assume climate-state independent diffusivity, chosen to well represent the current climate, and find that this is sufficient to [...]
Efficient modeling of wave generation and propagation in a semi-enclosed estuary
Published: 2023-03-14
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate, and high-resolution wave statistics are critical for regional hazard mapping and planning. However, long-term simulations at high spatial resolution are often computationally prohibitive. Here, multiple rapid frameworks including fetch-limited, look-up-table (LUT), and linear propagation are combined and tested in a large estuary exposed to both remotely (swell) and locally generated [...]
A Novel Heuristic Method for Detecting Overfit in Unsupervised Classification of Climate Model Data
Published: 2023-03-10
Subjects: Analysis, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Unsupervised classification is becoming an increasingly common method to objectively identify coherent structures within both observed and modelled climate data. However, in most applications using this method, the user must choose the number of classes into which the data are to be sorted in advance. Typically, a combination of statistical methods and expertise is used to choose the appropriate [...]