Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The limits of ecological decodability of a geospatial foundation-model embedding: a registered evaluation of AlphaEarth over shallow Great Barrier Reef habitats
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Annual satellite embedding fields compress a year of multi-sensor observation into one vector per 10 m pixel, worldwide. We test what ecological information the AlphaEarth embedding holds about shallow (< 10 m) Great Barrier Reef habitats, and where its limits lie. Every candidate output was registered with a pass gate before testing, evaluated under one fixed protocol, and reported pass or [...]
Boxology: the isobar–thickness box count as an exact advection integral, and its rendering
Published: 2026-08-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
"Boxology" is the hand-analysis practice of reading thermal advection from the angle at which mean-sea-level-pressure isobars cross 1000-500 hPa thickness contours: steep crossings cut the chart into small quadrilaterals and imply strong advection, parallel families imply none. This note shows the practice is an identity within geostrophic balance rather than a rule of thumb, and implements it as [...]
Adalar at the Eastern Marmara Seismic Gap: The August 2026 Earthquake Cluster and Its Implications for Seismic Hazard near Istanbul
Published: 2026-08-20
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering Science and Materials, Environmental Sciences, Geotechnical Engineering, Higher Education, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis, Science and Mathematics Education, Structural Engineering
The eastern Marmara Sea and Adalar sector lie close to İstanbul and the western North Anatolian Fault, where earthquake-source processes interact with strong basin and site effects. This study integrates a reconciled earthquake catalog, waveform-quality measures, spatial statistics, trial hypocentral relocation, reconnaissance focal mechanisms, point-source Coulomb stress screening, and published [...]
ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Precipitation Outlook and Hydrological-Hydrogeological Assessment for the Middle East: August 2026-January 2027
Published: 2026-08-16
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Higher Education, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This preprint presents a regional hydrological and hydrogeological interpretation of the ECMWF SEAS5 System 51 ensemble-mean precipitation forecast initialized on 1 August 2026 for the Middle East and adjacent portions of the analysis domain. The supplied NetCDF field is time-mean total precipitation rate (tprate; m s^-1), converted to monthly precipitation depth (mm/month) using the actual [...]
Source-composition sensitivity in historical marine wind observations: a CLIWOC case study, 1750--1855
Published: 2026-08-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Library and Information Science, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Applied Mathematics, Other Computer Sciences
Recovering Climate’s History with Artificial Intelligence used the CLIWOC ship-logbook database to argue that sailors’ wind observations reveal a previously undetected shift in global atmospheric circulation between the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. We reproduce the article's principal annual aggregate from CLIWOC release 2.1 and find that this unstandardized, record-weighted [...]
ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Precipitation Outlook and Preliminary Rainfall-Based Flood Screening for Iraq: October 2026–January 2027
Published: 2026-08-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This preprint provides a hydrological and hydrogeological interpretation of ECMWF SEAS5 monthly precipitation forecasts for Iraq from October 2026 through January 2027. The analysis uses the ECMWF System 51 ensemble mean initialized on 1 August 2026. The downloaded time-mean total precipitation rate was converted from metres per second to monthly precipitation depth in millimetres using the [...]
Questioning the Ferromanganese Nodule Dark Oxygen Production Hypothesis
Published: 2026-08-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Statistical projections of the mean changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over Zambia from the reference period 1981-2010 to the future 2031-2060.
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Zambia's rain-fed agriculture depends less on how much rain falls in a season than on how that rain is distributed within it. This study projects changes in the longest dry spell (consecutive dry days, CDD) and the longest wet spell (consecutive wet days, CWD) over Zambia, together with the number of wet days, rainfall per wet day and seasonal total, for 2031–2060 relative to 1981–2010, using 25 [...]
Intermediate-Evidence Substitution: A Benchmark Design Methodology for Isolating Numerical Derivation from Protocol Execution in Deterministic Climate Verification
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We introduce \textbf{Intermediate-Evidence Substitution (IES)}, a benchmark design methodology that changes evidence granularity while preserving task semantics: decisive aggregate statistics in benchmark evidence are replaced with the raw intermediate values from which they are derived, while task labels, decision protocols, thresholds, and evaluation criteria remain unchanged. IES functions as [...]
Historical Pattern Effects and Climate Sensitivity Revisited with Novel Constraints on Past Warming Patterns
Published: 2026-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The historical record (1850–present) can constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) only if we know the patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) that shape radiative feedbacks. Feedbacks depend on spatial patterns of SST and SIC (“pattern effects”), yet the impact of historical SST/SIC uncertainty on feedback estimates has not been systematically quantified. [...]
Improving PM2.5 Estimation from Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Using Boundary Layer Height and Meteorological Variables
Published: 2026-07-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate estimation of surface particulate matter (PM2.5) from satellite observations remains challenging because aerosol optical depth (AOD) represents column-integrated aerosol loading and is strongly influenced by meteorological conditions. This study investigates the relationship between satellite-derived AOD, meteorological variables, and surface PM2.5 concentrations over Mumbai, India, [...]
The tidal-force theory of the Indian summer monsoon
Published: 2026-07-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Education, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Science and Mathematics Education
This article elaborates on the theory that both lunar and solar tractive tidal forces generate the wind flows responsible for the ISMR. Monsoon variability shows that the monsoon (ISMR) is not periodic simply on the tropical year or the Gregorian calendar. However, it was observed that the seemingly delayed monsoons of 2004 and 2026 came right on time for the rainy season on the traditional [...]
A machine learning approach for detecting biofouling in oceanographic data
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Autonomous ocean observing platforms collect long-term biogeochemical time series, but sensor degradation from biofouling introduces progressive biases that contaminate the climate record. This work focuses on the BGC-Argo fleet of profiling floats, where optical sensors measuring chlorophyll-a and backscatter are particularly susceptible to biofouling. Current detection relies on per-float [...]
Validation of Baer-Babinet's Law using modern Landsat retrievals
Published: 2026-07-10
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In this study, I use a modern river erosion dataset created by Langhorst and Pavelsky (LP) in 2023 (LP 2023) to validate the long-standing contention behind Baer-Babinet's Law (BBL). This law postulates that rivers preferentially erode the right bank of rivers in the Northern Hemisphere and the left bank in the Southern Hemisphere, as a result of the Coriolis Force. Albert Einstein also published [...]
Stable estimates of when global temperature thresholds will be crossed: least-squares fits as the end date of the fitted span is reduced
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimates of when global mean temperature will reach 2°C above the 1850–1900 mean are generally derived from emissions scenarios and climate models rather than from the observed temperature record itself. This study does the latter by progressively truncating observed temperature records at their most recent end and fitting different curve types to fixed-width spans. It examines both the [...]