Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Radiative feedbacks from stochastic variability in surface temperature and radiative imbalance
Published: 2018-03-02
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimates of radiative feedbacks obtained by regressing fluctuations in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy imbalance and surface temperature depend critically on assumptions about the nature of the stochastic forcing and on the sampling interval. Here we develop an energy-balance framework that allows us to model the different contributions of stochastic atmospheric and oceanic forcing on feed- back [...]
On the reduction of trend errors by the ANOVA joint correction scheme used in homogenization of climate station records
Published: 2018-02-16
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Inhomogeneities in climate data are the main source of uncertainty for secular warming estimates. To reduce the influence of inhomogeneities in station data statistical homogenization compares a candidate station to its neighbors to detect and correct artificial changes in the candidate. Many studies have quantified the performance of statistical break detection tests used in this comparison. [...]
Multi-scale modeling of the urban meteorology: integration of a new canopy model in the WRF model
Published: 2018-02-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Urban parametrizations have been recently proposed and integrated in mesoscale meteorological models for a better reproduction of urban heat islands and to compute building energy con- sumption. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the value of the use of a module able to produce highly resolved vertical profiles of these variables. For this purpose, the Canopy Interface Model (CIM) [...]
Application of discrete-element methods to approximate sea-ice dynamics
Published: 2018-02-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lagrangian models of sea-ice dynamics have several advantages over Eulerian continuum models. Spatial discretization on the ice-floe scale are natural for Lagrangian models and offer exact solutions for mechanical non-linearities with arbitrary sea-ice concentrations. This allows for improved model performance in ice-marginal zones. Furthermore, Lagrangian models can explicitly simulate jamming [...]
An estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity from interannual variability
Published: 2018-02-04
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium warming in response to a doubling of CO2) from observations is one of the big problems in climate science. Using observations of interannual climate variations covering the period 2000 to 2017 and a model-derived relationship between interannual variations and forced climate change, we estimate ECS is likely 2.4-4.6 K (17-83% [...]
Description of the COST - HOME monthly benchmark dataset and the submitted homogenized contributions
Published: 2018-02-03
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
As part of the COST Action HOME a dataset has been generated that will serve as a benchmark for homogenisation algorithms. Members of the Action and third parties have been invited and are still welcome to homogenise this dataset. The results of this exercise was analysed to obtain recommendations for a standard homogenisation procedure and are described in Venema et al. (Climate of the Past, [...]
Facies architecture of submarine channel deposits on the western Niger Delta slope: Implications for grain-size and density stratification in turbidity currents
Published: 2018-01-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
High-resolution bathymetry, seismic reflection, and piston core data from a submarine channel on the western Niger Delta slope demonstrate that thick, coarse-grained, amalgamated sands in the channel thalweg/axis transition to thin, fine-grained, bedded sands and muds in the channel margin. Radiocarbon ages indicate that axis and margin deposits are coeval. Core data show that bed thickness, [...]
Impacts of land-use and land-cover change on stream hydrochemistry in the Cerrado and Amazon biomes
Published: 2018-01-28
Subjects: Chemistry, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geography, Hydrology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Soil Science
Studies on the impacts of land-use and land-cover change on stream hydrochemistry in active deforestation zones of the Amazon agricultural frontier are limited and have often used low-temporal-resolution datasets. Moreover, these impacts are not concurrently assessed in well-established agricultural areas and new deforestations hotspots. We aimed to identify these impacts using an experimental [...]
Exploring carbonate reef flat hydrodynamics and potential formation and growth mechanisms for motu
Published: 2018-01-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Atolls, which develop as reef-building coral platforms extend to near sea level, typically consist of a shallow reef flat encircling a central lagoon. Often, sub-aerial islets, known as motu or reef islands, consisting of sand, gravel, and coral detritus, can be found perched on the reef flat. Here, we use hydrodynamic numerical modeling (XBeach) to better understand the role of waves and [...]
Local and Remote Influences on the Heat Content of the Labrador Sea: an Adjoint Sensitivity Study
Published: 2018-01-11
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Labrador Sea is one of the few regions on the planet where the interior ocean can exchange heat directly with the atmosphere via strong, localized, wintertime convection, with possible implications for the state of North Atlantic climate and global surface warming. Using an observationally-constrained ocean adjoint model, we find that annual mean Labrador Sea heat content is sensitive to [...]
Moisture balance over the Iberian Peninsula according to a regional climate model: The impact of 3DVAR data assimilation.
Published: 2018-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
An analysis of the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle by means of a 15 km resolution numerical integration performed using WRF nested in ERA Interim is presented. Two WRF experiments covering the period 2010-2014 were prepared. The first one (N) was configured as in standard numerical downscaling experiments. The second one (D), with the same parameterizations, included a step of 3DVAR [...]
Estimating regional flood discharge during Palaeocene-Eocene global warming (submitted)
Published: 2018-01-04
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Among the most urgent challenges in future climate change scenarios is accurately predicting the magnitude at which precipitation extremes will intensify. Analogous changes have been reported for an episode of millennial scale 5°C warming termed the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), providing independent constraints on hydrological response to global warming. However, quantifying [...]
The joint influence of break and noise variance on the break detection capability in time series homogenization
Published: 2017-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Instrumental climate records of the last centuries suffer from multiple breaks due to relocations and changes in measurement techniques. These breaks are detected by relative homogenization algorithms using the difference time series between a candidate and a reference. Modern multiple changepoint methods use a decomposition approach where the segmentation explaining most variance defines the [...]
Optimising tidal range power plant operation
Published: 2017-12-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Power and Energy
Tidal range power plants represent an attractive approach for the large-scale generation of electricity from the marine environment. Even though the tides and by extension the available energy resource are predictable, they are also variable in time. This variability poses a challenge regarding the optimal transient control of power plants. Here we consider simulation methods which include the [...]
Non-crossing nonlinear regression quantiles by monotone composite quantile regression neural network, with application to rainfall extremes
Published: 2017-12-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Climate, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
The goal of quantile regression is to estimate conditional quantiles for specified values of quantile probability using linear or nonlinear regression equations. These estimates are prone to "quantile crossing", where regression predictions for different quantile probabilities do not increase as probability increases. In the context of the environmental sciences, this could, for example, lead to [...]