Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The joint influence of break and noise variance on the break detection capability in time series homogenization
Published: 2017-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Instrumental climate records of the last centuries suffer from multiple breaks due to relocations and changes in measurement techniques. These breaks are detected by relative homogenization algorithms using the difference time series between a candidate and a reference. Modern multiple changepoint methods use a decomposition approach where the segmentation explaining most variance defines the [...]
Optimising tidal range power plant operation
Published: 2017-12-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Power and Energy
Tidal range power plants represent an attractive approach for the large-scale generation of electricity from the marine environment. Even though the tides and by extension the available energy resource are predictable, they are also variable in time. This variability poses a challenge regarding the optimal transient control of power plants. Here we consider simulation methods which include the [...]
Non-crossing nonlinear regression quantiles by monotone composite quantile regression neural network, with application to rainfall extremes
Published: 2017-12-04
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Climate, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
The goal of quantile regression is to estimate conditional quantiles for specified values of quantile probability using linear or nonlinear regression equations. These estimates are prone to "quantile crossing", where regression predictions for different quantile probabilities do not increase as probability increases. In the context of the environmental sciences, this could, for example, lead to [...]
Comparison of 0-D, 1-D and 2-D model capabilities for tidal range energy resource assessments
Published: 2017-11-22
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Power and Energy
Tidal range energy projects present an attractive means for the predictable and large-scale generation of electricity from the marine environment. In particular, proposals are under consideration in UK waters, with their feasibility currently being under high levels of scrutiny. This is due to a combination of potential environmental and socio-economic impacts that are challenging to quantify in [...]
A new global mode of Earth deformation: seasonal cycle detected
Published: 2017-11-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We have detected a global mode of Earth deformation that is predicted by theory. Precise positioning of GPS sites distributed worldwide reveals that in February to March the northern hemisphere compresses (and the southern hemisphere expands), such that sites near the North Pole move downward by 3.0 mm, and sites near the equator are pulled northwards by 1.5 mm. The opposite pattern of [...]
Basis functions for the consistent and accurate representation of surface mass loading
Published: 2017-11-13
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Inversion of geodetic site displacement data to infer surface mass loads has previously been demonstrated using a spherical harmonic representation of the load. This method suffers from the continent-rich, ocean-poor distribution of the geodetic data, coupled with the predominance of the continental load (water storage and atmospheric pressure) compared with the ocean bottom pressure (including [...]
Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet
Published: 2017-11-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that [...]
Ocean tide loading and relative GNSS in the British Isles
Published: 2017-11-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean tide loading (OTL) affects all parts of the British Isles to varying degree, causing peak-to-peak vertical displacements of up to 13 cm in South-West England over semi-diurnal and diurnal timescales. Lateral displacements are typically around one-third of the magnitude of vertical displacements at a point, so are also considerable for carrier phase GNSS surveying. Using a recent numerical [...]
Increased ice loading in the Antarctic Peninsula since the 1850s and its effect on Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
Published: 2017-11-13
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice core records indicate significant accumulation increase since 1855, and any resultant ice mass increase has the potential to contribute substantially to present-day Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). We derive empirical orthogonal functions from climate model output to infer typical spatial patterns of accumulation over the AP and, by combining with ice core records, [...]
Ratcheting up ambition in climate policy
Published: 2017-11-10
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The historic Paris Agreement aims to constrain the peak increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, or at least well below 2 °C. Every country has committed to device their own “nationally determined contributions” towards this target. These contributions are only proscribed for the coming 10-15 years with a regular reassessment of them against the global target. Here we use a global [...]
Extreme UK Rainfall and Natural Climate Variability: Combining models and data
Published: 2017-11-10
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide [...]
Weakening of nonlinear ENSO under global warming
Published: 2017-11-07
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: Kohyama, T., D. L. Hartmann, and D. S. Battisti (2018), Weakening of nonlinear ENSO under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press., which has been published in final form at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079085 Abstract: The ENSO amplitude response to global warming is examined in two global [...]
A general model for the helical structure of geophysical flows in channel bends
Published: 2017-10-31
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Risk Analysis, Sedimentology
Meandering channels host geophysical flows that form the most extensive sediment transport systems on Earth (i.e. rivers and submarine channels). Measurements of helical flow structures in bends have been key to understanding sediment transport in rivers. Turbidity currents differ from rivers in both density and velocity profiles. These differences, and the lack of field measurements of turbidity [...]
Preconditioning and triggering of offshore slope failures and turbidity currents revealed by most detailed monitoring yet at a fjord-head delta
Published: 2017-10-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Rivers and turbidity currents are the two most important sediment transport processes by volume on Earth. Various hypotheses have been proposed for triggering of turbidity currents offshore from river mouths, including direct plunging of river discharge, delta mouth bar flushing or slope failure caused by low tides and gas expansion, earthquakes and rapid sedimentation. During 2011, 106 turbidity [...]
Direct monitoring of active geohazards: emerging geophysical tools for deep-water assessments
Published: 2017-10-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Seafloor networks of cables, pipelines, and other infrastructure underpin our daily lives, providing communication links, information, and energy supplies. Despite their global importance, these networks are vulnerable to damage by a number of natural seafloor hazards, including landslides, turbidity currents, fluid flow, and scour. Conventional geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution [...]