Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment
Published: 2018-11-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is [...]
Volume transports and temperature distributions in the main Arctic Gateways: A comparative study between an ocean reanalysis and mooring-derived data
Published: 2018-10-24
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Oceanic transports through the Arctic gateways represent an integral part of the polar climate system, but comprehensive in-situ-based estimates of this quantity have been lacking in the past. New observation-based estimates of oceanic volume, temperature and freshwater transports have recently become available. Those estimates have been derived from moored observations in the four major gateways [...]
Estimating Transient Climate Response in a large-ensemble global climate model simulation
Published: 2018-10-11
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The transient climate response (TCR), defined to be the warming in near-surface air temperature after 70 years of a 1% per year increase in CO2, can be estimated from observed warming over the 19th and 20th centuries. Such analyses yield lower values than TCR estimated from global climate models (GCMs). This disagreement has been used to suggest that GCMs’ climate may be too sensitive to [...]
Lake area constraints on past hydroclimate in the western United States: Application to Pleistocene Lake Bonneville
Published: 2018-10-10
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lake shoreline remnants found in basins of the western United States reflect wetter conditions during Pleistocene glacial periods. The size distribution of paleolakes, such as Lake Bonneville, provide a first-order constraint on the competition between regional precipitation delivery and evaporative demand. In this contribution we downscale previous work using lake mass balance equations and [...]
Modeling the effects of future urban planning scenarios on the Urban Heat Island in a complex region
Published: 2018-10-02
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Construction Engineering and Management, Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Because of the global warming, urban planning strategies must be investigated to reduce the building energy consumption and increase the thermal comfort in cities. In the framework of Energy Strategy 2050 of Switzerland, this research aim to highlight the impact of future climate change on urban planning and proposes strategies to help urban planners and policymakers face this new challenge [...]
Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning
Published: 2018-09-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Climate, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Water resources planning requires making decisions about infrastructure development under substantial uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have [...]
Coastal upwelling in Atlantic Canada [full paper published in Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies, 49 (1): 81-87, 2020]
Published: 2018-09-12
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The most studied upwelling systems occur on eastern ocean boundary coasts. We hereby focus on a western ocean boundary coast upwelling system located in Atlantic Canada. Using daily in-situ data on sea surface temperature (SST), we demonstrate a marked contrast in cooling between July 2014 (pronounced) and July 2015 (weak) for two locations ca. 110 km apart on the southeastern coast of Nova [...]
A climatology of rain-on-snow events for Norway
Published: 2018-09-11
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events are complex multivariate hydrometeorological phenomena requiring a combination of rain and snowpack. Impacts include floods and landslides, and rain may freeze within the snowpack or on bare ground, potentially affecting vegetation, wildlife, and permafrost. ROS events occur mainly in high-latitude and mountainous areas, where sparse observational networks hinder [...]
Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion
Published: 2018-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) has been investigated through three broad perspectives: dynamic perspective, linking AHT to the poleward flux of moist static energy (MSE) by atmospheric motions; an energetic perspective, linking AHT to energy input to the atmosphere by top-of-atmosphere radiation and surface heat fluxes; and a diffusive perspective, representing AHT in terms [...]
Why does Amazon precipitation decrease when tropical forests respond to increasing CO2?
Published: 2018-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO2, which describes a basin-wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of [...]
Modifications to Internal Tide Conversion Parameterizations and Implementation into Barotropic Ocean Models
Published: 2018-08-16
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Parameterization of the tidal energy conversion from barotropic to baroclinic modes through internal tide generation over rough and steep submarine topography is a necessary dissipative force for barotropic ocean models. We present and unify two forms of parameterizations that differ by assuming that wave generation is either only due to the local topographic features, or that it includes the [...]
Hamiltonian distributed chaos and predictability in large-scale climate dynamics
Published: 2018-08-14
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
It is shown that the large-scale climate dynamics, represented by the daily indices of the North Atlantic (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), Arctic (AO) and Antarctic (AAO) oscillations, Asian-Australian Monsoons (ISM, WNPM and AUSM) and El Nino/La Nina phenomenon (Nino indices) as well as global temperature anomalies (land), is dominated by the Hamiltonian distributed chaos with the stretched [...]
Ocean Drilling Perspectives on Meteorite Impacts
Published: 2018-08-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Stratigraphy
Extraterrestrial impacts are a ubiquitous process in the solar system, reshaping the surface of rocky bodies of all sizes. On early Earth, impact structures may have been a nursery for the evolution of life. More recently, a large meteorite impact caused the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, causing the extinction of 75% of species known from the fossil, including non-avian dinosaurs, and clearing [...]
Higher potential compound flood risk in Northern Europe under anthropogenic climate change
Published: 2018-07-18
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistics and Probability
The published version of this article is available at https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw5531. Compound flooding (CF) is an extreme event taking place in low-lying coastal areas as a result of co-occurring high sea level and large amounts of runoff, caused by precipitation. The impact from the two hazards occurring individually can be significantly lower than the result of their [...]
What Even Is Climate?
Published: 2018-06-26
Subjects: Climate, Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Although the concept of climate is easy to understand, there is not any uncontroversial definition of it. Most definitions fall back to the simple formulation that `climate is the statistics of weather. Recent attempts at a definition called versions of this saying vague. Climate is policy-relevant, and discussions on climate and climate change benefit from clarity on the topic. Beyond the policy [...]