Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Published: 2021-06-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine [...]
On the statistical learning analysis of rain gauge data over the Natuna Islands
Published: 2021-06-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
This article presents state-of-the-art statistical learning methods for analyzing rain gauge data over the Natuna Islands. By using shape preserving piecewise cubic interpolation, we managed to interpolate 671 null values from the daily precipitation data. Dominant periodicity analysis of daily precipitation signals using Lomb-Scargle Power Spectral Density shows annual, intraseasonal, and [...]
Detection of Interannual Ensemble Forecast Signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using Atmospheric Circulation Regimes
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To study the forced variability of atmospheric circulation regimes, the use of model ensembles is often necessary for identifying statistically significant signals as the observed data constitute a small sample and are thus strongly affected by the noise associated with sampling uncertainty. However, the regime representation is itself affected by noise within the atmosphere, which can make it [...]
Meteorites that produce K-feldspar-rich ejecta blankets correspond to mass extinctions.
Published: 2021-05-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geology, Other Planetary Sciences, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Meteorite impacts load the atmosphere with dust and cover the Earth‘s surface with debris. They have long been debated as a trigger of mass extinctions through Earth‘s history. Impact winters generally last <100 years, whereas ejecta blankets persist for 10^3-10^5 years. Here we show that only meteorite impacts that emplaced ejecta blankets rich in K-feldspar (Kfs) correlate to Earth system [...]
The carbon cycle of southeast Australia during 2019-2020: Drought, fires and subsequent recovery
Published: 2021-05-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
2019 was the hottest and driest year on record for southeast Australia leading to bushfires of unprecedented extent. Ecosystem carbon losses due to drought and fire are believed to have been substantial, but have not been well quantified. Here, we utilize space-based measurements of trace gases (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument XCO, Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 XCO2) and up-scaled GPP (FluxSat [...]
Global Assessment of Oil and Gas Methane Ultra-Emitters
Published: 2021-05-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oil, Gas, and Energy
Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a significant contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled [...]
The gap between atmospheric nitrogen deposition experiments and reality
Published: 2021-05-05
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Biology, Other Environmental Sciences, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Soil Science, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle. Atmospheric N deposition, primarily from combustion of biomass and fossil fuels, has caused acidification of precipitation and freshwater and triggered intense research into ecosystem responses to this pollutant. Experimental simulations of N deposition have been the main scientific tool to understand ecosystem [...]
A deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage
Published: 2021-04-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Uptake of atmospheric carbon by the ocean, especially at high latitudes, plays an important role in offsetting anthropogenic emissions. At the surface of the Southern Ocean south of 30◦S, the ocean carbon uptake, which had been weakening in 1990s, strengthened in the 2000s. However, sparseness of in-situ measurements in the interior make it difficult to compute changes in carbon storage below [...]
Why is the Hurricane Season So Sharp?
Published: 2021-04-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is a problem of profound societal significance and deep scientific interest. The annual cycle is the biggest radiatively-forced signal in TC variability, presenting a key test of our understanding and modeling of TC activity. TCs over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, which are usually called hurricanes, have a sharp peak in the annual cycle, with more [...]
fv3gfs-wrapper: a Python wrapper of the FV3GFS atmospheric model
Published: 2021-03-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Software Engineering
Simulation software in geophysics is traditionally written in Fortran or C++ due to the stringent performance requirements these codes have to satisfy. As a result, these codes are often hard to understand, hard to modify and hard to interface with high-productivity languages used for exploratory work. \texttt{fv3gfs-wrapper} is an open-source Python-wrapped version of NOAA's FV3GFS global [...]
Crisis at the Salton Sea: The Vital Role of Science
Published: 2021-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Chemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Medicine and Health Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Salton Sea—a hypersaline, terminal lake in southern California—is in crisis. A combination of mismanagement and competition among federal, state and local agencies has hindered efforts to address declining lake levels and unstable water chemistry. This delay has heightened the public health threat to regional communities as retreating shorelines expose dry lakebed— a source of potentially [...]
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020
Published: 2021-02-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ) and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, following successful forecasts in previous years. The 3-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the [...]
The 3D Structure of Northern Hemisphere Blocking Events: Climatology, Role of Moisture, and Response to Climate Change
Published: 2021-02-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
We present a comprehensive composite analysis of the 3D structure of blocks and its response to future climate change over North Pacific, North Atlantic, and Russia in summers and winters. Using reanalysis and two large-ensemble datasets from CESM1 and GFDL-CM3, we investigate the following: The climatology of 3D structure, physical processes governing the temperature anomaly associated with [...]
Reduced High-Latitude Land Seasonality in Climates with Very High Carbon Dioxide
Published: 2021-02-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Observations of warm past climates and projections of future climate change show that the Arctic warms more than the global mean, particularly during winter months. Past warm climates such as the early Eocene had above-freezing Arctic continental temperatures year-round. In this paper, we show that a reduced Arctic land seasonality with increased greenhouse gases is a robust consequence of the [...]
A study of nowcast of Indian Monsoon Rainfall over Mumbai using Rainymotion
Published: 2020-12-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Since ages, we know that rainfall is a very important factor in deciding the fate of a country. In an agrarian country like India where more than 70% of rural households are dependent on agriculture, agriculture contributes to nearly 17% GDP of the country and is directly dependent on rainfall. Excessive rainfall can lead to floods, landslides, soil erosion and no rainfall can lead to [...]