Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Data-driven prediction of a multi-scale Lorenz 96 chaotic system using deep learning methods: Reservoir computing, ANN, and RNN-LSTM
Published: 2019-06-20
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Non-linear Dynamics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
In this paper, the performance of three deep learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and for reproducing the long-term statistics of a multi-scale spatio-temporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are: echo state network (a type of reservoir computing, RC-ESN), deep feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN), and recurrent neural network with long short-term memory [...]
Understanding Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology with an Information Maximizing Generative Adversarial Network
Published: 2019-06-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Computer Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a class of machine learning algorithms with two neural networks, one generator and one discriminator, playing adversarial games with each other. Information maximizing GANs (InfoGANs) is a particular GAN type that tries to maximize mutual information between a subset of latent variables and generated samples, thereby establishing a mapping between the [...]
Past and projected weather pattern persistence with associated multi-hazards in the British Isles
Published: 2019-05-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Hazards such as heatwaves, droughts and floods are often associated with persistent weather patterns. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are important tools for evaluating projected changes in extreme weather. Here, we demonstrate that 2-day weather pattern persistence, derived from the Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) objective scheme, is a useful concept for both investigating [...]
Single-Column Emulation of Reanalysis of the Northeast Pacific Marine Boundary Layer
Published: 2019-05-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
An artificial neural network is trained to reproduce thermodynamic tendencies and boundary layer properties from ERA5 HIRES reanalysis data over the summertime Northeast Pacific stratocumulus to trade cumulus transition region. The network is trained prognostically using 7-day forecasts rather than using diagnosed instantaneous tendencies alone. The resulting model, Machine Assisted Reanalysis [...]
Preprint: Dataset of global extreme climatic indices due to an acceleration of ice sheet melting during the 21st century
Published: 2019-03-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences
This article describes extreme indices maps (Data Cube, raster X Time) for different scenarios with a more important contribution to the sea level rise from Greenland and/or Antarctica during the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The indices are produced annually and globally with a resolution of 0.5°X0.5° from 1951 to 2099. The data were [...]
Technical note on the multi-GNSS, multi-frequency and near real-time ionospheric TEC monitoring system for South America
Published: 2019-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Development of regional services able to provide ionospheric total electron content (TEC) maps with a high spatial resolution, and in near real-time, are of high importance for applications and the research community. We provide here the methodologies, and a preliminary assessment, of such a system. The system relies on the public Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) infrastructure in [...]
Reconstruction of Cloud Vertical Structure with a Generative Adversarial Network
Published: 2019-02-20
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Computer Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We demonstrate the feasibility of solving atmospheric remote sensing problems with machine learning using conditional generative adversarial networks (CGANs), implemented using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We apply the CGAN to generating two-dimensional cloud vertical structures that would be observed by the CloudSat satellite-based radar, using only the collocated Moderate-Resolution [...]
Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015-2016 austral summer: causes and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill
Published: 2019-02-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
During the austral summer 2015/16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the lower Paraguay River basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems were [...]
Dynamics of ITCZ width: Ekman processes, non-Ekman processes and links to sea-surface temperature
Published: 2019-01-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The dynamical processes controlling the width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are investigated using idealized simulations. ITCZ width is defined in terms of boundary-layer vertical velocity. The tropical boundary layer is approximately in Ekman balance suggesting that wind stress places a strong constraint on ITCZ width. A scaling based on Ekman balance predicts that ITCZ width is [...]
Buoyancy driven distributed chaos and ensemble weather forecasting
Published: 2019-01-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
It is shown, using results of direct numerical simulations, that strong thermal convection in horizontal layer and on a hemisphere can be well described by the distributed chaos approach with the stretched exponential kinetic energy spectrum. Two relevant cases: the vorticity and helicity dominated distributed chaos, have been considered. The results obtained with the Weather Research and [...]
Extreme weather events in early Summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern.
Published: 2018-11-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The summer of 2018 witnessed a number of extreme weather events such as heatwaves in North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region and rainfall extremes in South-East Europe and Japan that occurred near-simultaneously. Here we show that these extremes were connected by an amplified hemisphere-wide wavenumber 7 circulation pattern. We show that this pattern constitutes a teleconnection [...]
Meridional atmospheric heat transport constrained by energetics and mediated by large-scale diffusion
Published: 2018-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) has been investigated through three broad perspectives: dynamic perspective, linking AHT to the poleward flux of moist static energy (MSE) by atmospheric motions; an energetic perspective, linking AHT to energy input to the atmosphere by top-of-atmosphere radiation and surface heat fluxes; and a diffusive perspective, representing AHT in terms [...]
Why does Amazon precipitation decrease when tropical forests respond to increasing CO2?
Published: 2018-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Earth system models predict a zonal dipole of precipitation change over tropical South America, with decreases over the Amazon and increases over the Andes. Much of this has been attributed to the physiological response of the rainforest to elevated CO2, which describes a basin-wide reduction in stomatal conductance and transpiration. While robust in Earth system model experiments, details of [...]
Higher potential compound flood risk in Northern Europe under anthropogenic climate change
Published: 2018-07-18
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Statistics and Probability
The published version of this article is available at https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw5531. Compound flooding (CF) is an extreme event taking place in low-lying coastal areas as a result of co-occurring high sea level and large amounts of runoff, caused by precipitation. The impact from the two hazards occurring individually can be significantly lower than the result of their [...]
Methyl, ethyl, and propyl nitrates: global distribution and impacts on reactive nitrogen in remote marine environments
Published: 2018-05-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Alkyl nitrates (RONO2) are important components of tropospheric reactive nitrogen that serve as reservoirs for nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2). Here we implement a new simulation of atmospheric methyl, ethyl, and propyl nitrate chemistry in a global chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem). We show that the model can reproduce the spatial and seasonal variability seen in a 20‐year ensemble of [...]