Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Correcting 19th and 20th century sea surface temperatures improves simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity
Published: 2020-08-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Changes in the statistics of North Atlantic hurricanes are known to depend upon the pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Dynamical and statistical models are key tools to predict future hurricane activity, with our confidence in this application rooted in the models’ ability to skillfully reproduce hurricane variations over the past 30-40 years, when satellite data allows [...]
Changes in temperature and rainfall extremes across East Asia in the CMIP5 ensemble
Published: 2020-07-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We analyze annual extremes of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and of daily rainfall in East Asia and the Korean peninsula. This study made intensive use of the simulation data available from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model intercomparison Project Phase 5) multimodels in historical and future experiments up to year 2100, employing three different radiative forcings: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, [...]
Alkenone isotopes show evidence of active carbon concentrating mechanisms in coccolithophores as aqueous carbon dioxide concentrations fall below 7 µmolL-1
Published: 2020-07-15
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coccolithophores and other haptophyte algae acquire the carbon required for metabolic processes from the water in which they live. Whether carbon is actively moved across the cell membrane via a carbon concentrating mechanism, or passively through diffusion, is important for haptophyte biochemistry. The possible utilisation of carbon concentrating mechanisms also has the potential to overprint [...]
Surprising Changes in Aerosol Loading over India Amid COVID-19 Lockdown
Published: 2020-07-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Using ground-based and satellite observation along with aerosol reanalysis products, we show a widespread reduction in aerosol loading over the Indian subcontinent during the COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease 2019) lockdown. The pre-lockdown and lockdown period considered in the present study is 20th February–20th March 2020 and 24th March–22nd April 2020. In terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD), [...]
Deep spatial transformers for autoregressive data-driven forecasting of geophysical turbulence
Published: 2020-07-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Computer Sciences, Dynamical Systems, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
A deep spatial transformer based encoder-decoder model has been developed to autoregressively predict the time evolution of the upper layers stream function of a two-layered quasi-geostrophic (QG) system without any information about the lower layers stream function. The spatio-temporal complexity of QG flow is comparable to the complexity of 500hPa Geopotential Height (Z500) of fully coupled [...]
Terrestrial evaporation and global climate: lessons from Northland, a planet with a hemispheric continent
Published: 2020-06-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
From a climate perspective, land differs from the ocean in several fundamental physical ways, including albedo, heat capacity, amount of water storage, and differences in resistance to evaporation. These differences alter the surface energy and water budgets over land compared to ocean, with implications for both surface climate and atmospheric circulation. In this study, we use an idealized [...]
Tropical cyclone response to anthropogenic warming as simulated by a mesoscale-resolving global coupled earth system model
Published: 2020-06-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm systems that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their track TCs can mix up cold water which can further impact their development. Due to the adoption of lower ocean model resolutions, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimate such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of [...]
Seasonal impact-based mapping of compound hazards
Published: 2020-06-17
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Mathematics, Multivariate Analysis, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Impact-based, seasonal mapping of compound hazards is proposed. It is pragmatic, identifies phenomena to drive the research agenda, produces outputs relevant to stakeholders, and could be applied to many hazards globally. Illustratively, flooding and wind damage can co-occur, worsening their joint impact, yet where wet and windy seasons combine has not yet been systematically mapped. Here, [...]
Is Net Zero by 2050 Possible?
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Achieving Net Zero 2050 does not assure complying with a global warming temperature ceiling. The U.S. might achieve NZ(2050); the world almost certainly will not. For the U.S. to achieve NZ(2050) requires a massive transition of the economy, which is extremely unlikely.
Heat does not physically flow in the ways assumed by greenhouse-warming theory
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Heat is currently defined as an amount of thermal energy flowing each second per unit area. Temperature is assumed to result from the net amount of heat flowing—the sum of all radiative forcings. Yet direct and unambiguous observations of Nature show that macroscopic temperature of solid matter results from a very broad spectrum of sub-microscopic oscillations of all the bonds holding matter [...]
Antarctic elevation drives hemispheric asymmetry in polar lapse-rate climatology and feedback
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The lapse-rate feedback is the dominant driver of stronger warming in the Arctic than the Antarctic in simulations with increased CO2. While Antarctic surface elevation has been implicated in promoting a weaker Antarctic lapse-rate feedback, the mechanisms in which elevation impacts the lapse-rate feedback are still unclear. Here we suggest that weaker Antarctic warming under CO2 forcing stems [...]
Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression
Published: 2020-05-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
The human impacts of changes in heat events depend on changes in the joint behavior of temperature and humidity. Little is currently known about these complex joint changes, either in observations or projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Further, GCMs do not fully reproduce the observed joint distribution, implying a need for simulation methods that combine information from GCMs [...]
A newly reconciled data set for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay
Published: 2020-05-28
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability
We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938 to 2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea [...]
UNSEEN trends: Detecting decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes
Published: 2020-05-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sample sizes of observed climate extremes are typically too small to reliably constrain non-stationary behaviour. To facilitate detection of non-stationarities in 100-year precipitation values over a short period of 35 years (1981-2015), we apply the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach, by pooling ensemble members and lead times from the ECMWF seasonal prediction system [...]
A multi-control climate policy process for a trusted decision maker
Published: 2020-05-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
Persistent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions threaten global climate goals and have prompted consideration of climate controls supplementary to emissions mitigation. We present an idealized model of optimally-controlled climate change, which is complementary to simpler analytical models and more comprehensive Integrated Assessment Models. We show that the four methods of controlling climate damage– [...]