Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Evaluation of changes in dry and wet precipitation extremes in warmer climates using a passive water vapor modelling approach
Published: 2022-01-22
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Hydroclimatic extremes, such as heavy daily rainfall and dry spells, are expected to intensify under anthropogenic warming. Often, these changes are diagnostically related to thermodynamic increases in humidity with warming. Here, we develop a framework that uses an on-line calculation of the thermodynamically induced changes of the full precipitation distribution with warming in an idealized [...]
Evidences of horizontal urban heat advection in London using 6 years of data from a citizen weather station network
Published: 2021-12-05
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography
Recent advances in citizen weather station (CWS) networks, with data accessible via crowd-sourcing, provide relevant climatic information to urban scientists and decision makers. In particular, CWS can provide long-term measurements of urban heat and valuable information on spatio-temporal heterogeneity related to horizontal heat advection. In this study, we make the first compilation of a [...]
C3S Energy: A climate service for the provision of power supply and demand indicators for Europe based on the ERA5 reanalysis and ENTSO-E data
Published: 2021-11-17
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Statistical Models
The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policymakers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past 40 years and the future. It provides time series of electricity [...]
Geographically-resolved social cost of anthropogenic emissions accounting for both direct and climate-mediated effects
Published: 2021-11-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Sustainability
The magnitude and distribution of physical and societal impacts from long-lived greenhouse gases are insensitive to the emission source location; the same is not true for major co-emitted short-lived pollutants like aerosols. Here we combine novel global climate model simulations with established response functions to show that identical aerosols emitted from different regions (Brazil, China, [...]
Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia
Published: 2021-11-16
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burnt area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent [...]
Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records
Published: 2021-11-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Geology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Multivariate Analysis, Non-linear Dynamics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for improving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, or trend, these nonlinear regime shifts can manifest as changes in signal predictability, [...]
A 18,000 yr record of tropical land temperature, convective activity and rainfall seasonality from the maritime continent
Published: 2021-10-27
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Hydrology
The maritime continent exports an enormous amount of heat and moisture to the rest of the globe via deep atmospheric convection. How this export has changed through time during the last deglacial period and through the Holocene, is hardly known yet critical for the understanding of global climate dynamics. Here we present a continuous paleoclimate record from southern Thailand covering the last [...]
Different Pathways to an Early Eocene Climate
Published: 2021-10-27
Subjects: Climate
The early Eocene was characterised by much higher temperatures and a smaller equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient than today. Comprehensive climate models have been reasonably successful in simulating many features of that climate in the annual average. However, good simulations of the seasonal variations, and in particular the much reduced Arctic land temperature seasonality and [...]
Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming–driven increase in heavy rainfall.
Published: 2021-10-15
Subjects: Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Heavy rainfall drives a range of eruptive and noneruptive volcanic hazards; over the Holocene, the incidence of many such hazards has increased due to rapid climate change. Here we show that extreme heavy rainfall is projected to increase with continued global warming throughout the 21st century in most subaerial volcanic regions, dramatically increasing the potential for rainfall-induced [...]
Deadly Heat Exposure in an Urbanized World
Published: 2021-10-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Climate-change exposes an increasing share of the world population to potentially lethal heat, a threat accentuated by rapid urbanization. Here, we project occurrence of future deadly heat for urban agglomerations around the world until 2080 by using CMIP6 climate model projections of temperature and relative humidity, urbanization prospects and GDP projections from the SSP scenarios. We show [...]
Constraining clouds and convective parameterizations in a climate model from past climate
Published: 2021-10-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple [...]
Data Reference Syntax (DRS) for bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulations
Published: 2021-09-29
Subjects: Climate
This document specifies the Data Reference Syntax (DRS) elements for managing bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulation data. The document includes file naming conventions and metadata as NetCDF attributes. The DRS elements are allowed to either assume values defined by Controlled Vocabularies (CV), or free text, or free text with build rules.
An open workflow for the study of unseen weather extremes
Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Ensemble members from weather and climate predictions can be used to generate large samples of simulated weather events, allowing the estimation of extreme (hitherto unseen) events. Here, we provide a protocol and open workflow for applying the ‘UNSEEN’ method for hydro-climatic extremes globally, based on Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) seasonal predictions but also considering other [...]
High interstadial sea levels over the past 420ka from the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea
Published: 2021-09-06
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Tectonics and Structure
The history of sea level across the Quaternary is essential for assessing past and future climate. Global sea-level reconstructions are typically derived from oxygen isotope curves, but require calibration with geological constraints that are scarce prior to the last glacial cycle (>130 thousand years ago). Here we show that the coral reef terrace sequence at the Huon Peninsula (Papua New Guinea) [...]
Extreme smog challenge of India intensified by increasing lower tropospheric stability
Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Air pollution in India severely impacts the air quality, public health and economy in one of the world’s most densely populated regions. Persistent agricultural fires during the late-autumn period and widespread winter-time pollution contribute to the extreme smog in south Asia, especially affecting the entire northern India. While the links between anthropogenic emissions, air quality and health [...]