Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Causal and Predictive Analysis of Climate Change Using Granger Causality
Published: 2021-05-21
Subjects: Climate
Current climate simulation models provide valuable insights but are highly complicated, with numerous parameters, making them complex for assessing the causal impact of anthropogenic and natural factors on global temperatures. We applied multivariate Granger causality to investigate how combinations of forcings affect Earth's surface and ocean temperatures. Clear causal impact was found due to [...]
The influence of rock uplift rate on the formation and preservation of individual marine terraces during multiple sea level stands
Published: 2021-05-13
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology
Marine terraces are a cornerstone for the study of paleo sea level and crustal deformation. Commonly, individual erosive marine terraces are attributed to unique sea level high-stands. This stems from early reasoning that erosive marine platforms could only be significantly widened at the beginning of an interglacial. However, this implies that wave erosion is insignificant during the vast [...]
CO2 capture by pumping surface acidity to the deep ocean
Published: 2021-04-30
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The majority of IPCC scenarios call for active CO2 removal (CDR) to remain below 2oC of warm- ing. On geological timescales, ocean uptake regulates atmospheric CO2 concentration, with two homeostats driving CO2 uptake: dissolution of deep ocean calcite deposits and terrestrial weathering of silicate rocks, acting on 1ka to 100ka timescales, respectively. Many current ocean-based CDR proposals [...]
Localised impacts and economic implications from high temperature disruption days under climate change
Published: 2021-04-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies
Most studies into the effects of climate change have headline results in the form of a global change in mean temperature. More useful for businesses and governments however are measures of localised impacts, and also of extremes rather than averages. We have addressed this by examining the change in frequency of exceeding a daily mean temperature threshold, defined as “disruption days”, as it is [...]
A Hydrologist’s Guide to Open Science
Published: 2021-04-22
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Hydrologic research that is open, accessible, reusable, and reproducible will have the largest impact on the scientific community and broader society. While more and more members of the hydrology community and key hydrology organizations are embracing open science practices, technical (e.g., limited coding experience), resource (e.g., open access fees), and social (e.g., fear of being scooped) [...]
A deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage
Published: 2021-04-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Uptake of atmospheric carbon by the ocean, especially at high latitudes, plays an important role in offsetting anthropogenic emissions. At the surface of the Southern Ocean south of 30◦S, the ocean carbon uptake, which had been weakening in 1990s, strengthened in the 2000s. However, sparseness of in-situ measurements in the interior make it difficult to compute changes in carbon storage below [...]
A simplified palaeoceanography archiving system (PARIS) and GUI for storage and visualisation of marine sediment core proxy data vs age and depth.
Published: 2021-04-14
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography
Scientific discovery can be aided when data is shared following the principles of findability, accessibility, interoperability, reusability (FAIR) data (Wilkinson et al., 2016). Recent discussions in the palaeoclimate literature have focussed on defining the ideal database format for storing data and associated metadata. Here, we highlight an often overlooked primary process in widespread [...]
Why is the Hurricane Season So Sharp?
Published: 2021-04-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is a problem of profound societal significance and deep scientific interest. The annual cycle is the biggest radiatively-forced signal in TC variability, presenting a key test of our understanding and modeling of TC activity. TCs over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, which are usually called hurricanes, have a sharp peak in the annual cycle, with more [...]
Paleoclimate Changes in the Pacific Northwest Over the Past 36,000 Years from Clumped Isotope Measurements and Isotope-Enabled Model Analysis
Published: 2021-04-07
Subjects: Climate, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Since the last glacial period, North America has experienced dramatic changes in regional climate, including the collapse of ice sheets and changes in effective precipitation. We use clumped isotopes and analysis of transient climate simulations to provide constraints on hydroclimate changes in the Pacific Northwest. The coldest soil temperatures (~10.5 ±1.°C to 14.9 ±1.2°C) occurred [...]
Orbital, the Box - An interactive educational tool for in-depth understanding of astronomical climate forcing.
Published: 2021-04-07
Subjects: Adult and Continuing Education, Astrophysics and Astronomy, Climate, Earth Sciences, Education, Educational Methods, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Higher Education, Instructional Media Design, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, The Sun and the Solar System
“Orbital, the Box” provides an interactive tool with graphical user interface (GUI) for stimulating active, visual learning for understanding of astronomical climate forcing. This cross-platform tool can be run locally on a personal computer using a standard web browser environment with no need for plugins, thus maximising accessibility for students and teachers alike. The tool facilitates in the [...]
Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum
Published: 2021-03-31
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate changes across the last 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations and proxy data have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation to produce the first observationally [...]
Crisis at the Salton Sea: The Vital Role of Science
Published: 2021-03-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Chemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Medicine and Health Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Salton Sea—a hypersaline, terminal lake in southern California—is in crisis. A combination of mismanagement and competition among federal, state and local agencies has hindered efforts to address declining lake levels and unstable water chemistry. This delay has heightened the public health threat to regional communities as retreating shorelines expose dry lakebed— a source of potentially [...]
An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories
Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Other Earth Sciences, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Stratigraphy
Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved [...]
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020
Published: 2021-02-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ) and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, following successful forecasts in previous years. The 3-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the [...]
Shallow or deep? A reinterpretation of the Rifian Corridor’s unique sandy contourites
Published: 2021-02-25
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
This study proposes that sandstone layers exposed in the Fez-Meknes region of Northern Morocco (Ben Allou (Sidi Chaded) and El Adergha localities), have been misinterpreted as unique examples of geostrophically-driven, deep marine (150 - 400 m water depth) sandy contourites. Instead, our independent paleontological, sedimentological, and stratigraphic analyses show that these sandstones represent [...]