Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Deadly Heat Exposure in an Urbanized World
Published: 2021-10-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Climate-change exposes an increasing share of the world population to potentially lethal heat, a threat accentuated by rapid urbanization. Here, we project occurrence of future deadly heat for urban agglomerations around the world until 2080 by using CMIP6 climate model projections of temperature and relative humidity, urbanization prospects and GDP projections from the SSP scenarios. We show [...]
Constraining clouds and convective parameterizations in a climate model from past climate
Published: 2021-10-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple [...]
Data Reference Syntax (DRS) for bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulations
Published: 2021-09-29
Subjects: Climate
This document specifies the Data Reference Syntax (DRS) elements for managing bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulation data. The document includes file naming conventions and metadata as NetCDF attributes. The DRS elements are allowed to either assume values defined by Controlled Vocabularies (CV), or free text, or free text with build rules.
An open workflow for the study of unseen weather extremes
Published: 2021-09-10
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing
Ensemble members from weather and climate predictions can be used to generate large samples of simulated weather events, allowing the estimation of extreme (hitherto unseen) events. Here, we provide a protocol and open workflow for applying the ‘UNSEEN’ method for hydro-climatic extremes globally, based on Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) seasonal predictions but also considering other [...]
High interstadial sea levels over the past 420ka from the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea
Published: 2021-09-06
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Tectonics and Structure
The history of sea level across the Quaternary is essential for assessing past and future climate. Global sea-level reconstructions are typically derived from oxygen isotope curves, but require calibration with geological constraints that are scarce prior to the last glacial cycle (>130 thousand years ago). Here we show that the coral reef terrace sequence at the Huon Peninsula (Papua New Guinea) [...]
Extreme smog challenge of India intensified by increasing lower tropospheric stability
Published: 2021-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Air pollution in India severely impacts the air quality, public health and economy in one of the world’s most densely populated regions. Persistent agricultural fires during the late-autumn period and widespread winter-time pollution contribute to the extreme smog in south Asia, especially affecting the entire northern India. While the links between anthropogenic emissions, air quality and health [...]
Safety and Belonging in the Field: A Checklist for Educators
Published: 2021-08-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Cosmochemistry, Earth Sciences, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Higher Education, Human Geography, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Meteorology, Mineral Physics, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Geography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Outdoor Education, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Mineral Physics, Planetary Sciences, Planetary Sedimentology, Remote Sensing, Sedimentology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Soil Science, Spatial Science, Speleology, Stratigraphy, Sustainability, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology, Water Resource Management
Ensuring taught fieldwork is a positive, generative, collective, and valuable experience for all participants requires considerations beyond course content. To guarantee safety and belonging, participants’ identities (backgrounds and protected characteristics) must be considered as a part of fieldwork planning and implementation. Furthermore, getting fieldwork right is an important step in [...]
Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach
Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO [...]
Imprint of the Pacific Walker Circulation in global precipitation δ18O
Published: 2021-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
*This article is now published, and freely available from Journal of Climate at https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0190.1* Characterising variability in the global water cycle is fundamental to predicting impacts of future climate change; understanding the role of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) in the regional expression of global water cycle changes is critical to understanding this [...]
Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Education, Environmental Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Instructional Media Design, International and Area Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Science and Mathematics Education, Sustainability
Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, [...]
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Published: 2021-06-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine [...]
What sets aeolian dune height?
Published: 2021-05-23
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Earth's major sand seas are often populated with giant dunes, up to hundreds of meters in height and kilometers in wavelength. These massive sediment piles, visible from space on our planet and across the Solar System, indicate that conditions for sand transport have persisted for millenia. Unraveling how giant dunes form therefore has implications for understanding atmospheric flows and climatic [...]
Causal and Predictive Analysis of Climate Change Using Granger Causality
Published: 2021-05-21
Subjects: Climate
Current climate simulation models provide valuable insights but are highly complicated, with numerous parameters, making them complex for assessing the causal impact of anthropogenic and natural factors on global temperatures. We applied multivariate Granger causality to investigate how combinations of forcings affect Earth's surface and ocean temperatures. Clear causal impact was found due to [...]
The influence of rock uplift rate on the formation and preservation of individual marine terraces during multiple sea level stands
Published: 2021-05-13
Subjects: Climate, Geology, Geomorphology
Marine terraces are a cornerstone for the study of paleo sea level and crustal deformation. Commonly, individual erosive marine terraces are attributed to unique sea level high-stands. This stems from early reasoning that erosive marine platforms could only be significantly widened at the beginning of an interglacial. However, this implies that wave erosion is insignificant during the vast [...]
CO2 capture by pumping surface acidity to the deep ocean
Published: 2021-04-30
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The majority of IPCC scenarios call for active CO2 removal (CDR) to remain below 2oC of warm- ing. On geological timescales, ocean uptake regulates atmospheric CO2 concentration, with two homeostats driving CO2 uptake: dissolution of deep ocean calcite deposits and terrestrial weathering of silicate rocks, acting on 1ka to 100ka timescales, respectively. Many current ocean-based CDR proposals [...]