Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
Assessing and Correcting Bias in Gridded Reference Evapotranspiration over Agricultural Lands Across the Contiguous United States
Published: 2026-02-19
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Water Resource Management
Gridded reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) data are widely used for agricultural water management and remote sensing evapotranspiration (RSET) models, but biases can arise where coarse meteorological inputs fail to capture agricultural microclimates. We investigated biases in the gridMET ETₒ product across irrigated agricultural areas of the contiguous United States using ETₒ calculated from 793 [...]
MACROM: An Optimal Control Model for Balancing Climate Change Abatement and Damage Trade-offs
Published: 2026-02-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment
The current pace of global emissions reduction is inadequate to meet the Paris Agreement temperature target of 1.5°C. While carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly viewed as necessary to meet these targets, questions remain about the optimal scale and timing of deployment when both costs and climate damages are considered. Here we present MACROM, an optimal control climate-economic model [...]
Widespread reliance of rainfed crops on upwind irrigated agriculture in India
Published: 2026-02-03
Subjects: Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Rainfed crops account for approximately 40% of India’s food production and support 60% of its livestock. Although linked to oceanic monsoon rainfall, their productivity also depends on terrestrial evaporation, particularly in the non-monsoon season. However, the degree to which rainfed crops also rely on moisture sourced from upwind irrigated areas, remains largely unknown. Using a combination of [...]
A Quality-Control Procedure for Bio-Optical Applications of Hyperspectral Radiometric Upwelling Radiance and Downwelling Irradiance Profiles Measured by BioGeoChemical-Argo Floats.
Published: 2026-01-26
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Autonomous in-situ radiometric observations are increasingly used to constrain bio-optical processes and validate satellite ocean-color products, such as remote sensing reflectance and diffuse attenuation coefficients. Because these observations are collected independently of weather and sea-state conditions, their application critically depends on robust quality control. Starting in 2012, the [...]
Study on Land-use Change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions
Published: 2026-01-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Studies
Land-use change (LUC)-induced carbon emissions (ELUC, defined as net carbon emissions and removals) have accounted for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic carbon emissions since industrialization. While its contribution has declined in recent decades, ELUC still represents a significant component of the global carbon budget, comprising 11% of anthropogenic emissions during 2012–2022. [...]
Two Wind Farms, Two Islands: Physics Informed Causal Wind Analysis in New Zealand
Published: 2026-01-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Power and Energy
Wind power forecasting models often rely on correlation-based methods, which can misinterpret the relationship between meteorological variables and power generation. A key example is air density: while physics suggests denser air should increase available wind power, observational data can show a negative correlation because high-pressure regimes (high density) often coincide with lower wind [...]
More Frequent Extreme Precipitation on the Asian Monsoon Fringes Driven by Evolving Extratropical Planetary-Scale Circulations
Published: 2026-01-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
In recent decades, the fringes of the Asian summer monsoon, such as Pakistan and Northeast China, have become hotspots of extreme precipitation. Although such increases are often linked to thermodynamic changes in a warming climate, the dynamical drivers behind these trends, particularly the systematic role of extratropical circulations, remain poorly understood. This study identifies the [...]
Hydrological and landscape controls on dissolved organic matter dynamics in European wetlands
Published: 2025-12-28
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a key component in aquatic ecosystems, representing the main source of energy for microbial metabolism and playing a crucial role in C sequestration and export. Its optical properties (absorption and fluorescence) provide integrated information on its quality (average molecular weight and aromaticity degree, main sources, presence of protein like and humic-like [...]
Assessing the effects of restoration and conservation on gaseous carbon fluxes and climate mitigation potential across six European coastal wetlands
Published: 2025-12-23
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies
Coastal wetlands play a substantial role in regulating Earth’s climate through exchanges of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current European policies promote widespread coastal wetland restoration to reverse historical losses and ongoing pressures. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes respond to restoration across different coastal wetland [...]
Governing the cryosphere beyond political timeframes
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Glaciology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Cryospheric systems are nearing irreversible thresholds, yet political processes remain misaligned with the long timescales of ice loss. Using COP30 as context, we argue that cryosphere science must inform governance capable of linking near-term decisions with long-term stability in a rapidly changing world.
Timescales of Antarctic ice shelf loss via basal crevassing
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic ice-shelves are vulnerable to collapse in a warming climate. However, when this might happen is largely unknown, propagating significant uncertainty into sea-level-rise projections. To constrain this uncertainty, we use fracture modelling to predict the timescales on which crevasses fully penetrate ice-shelves, and consider how these timescales change under future warming. We find that [...]
The Impact of GIA Corrections on Gravimetric Basin-Scale Ocean Mass Budgets
Published: 2025-11-22
Subjects: Climate, Geophysics and Seismology
Closing the sea-level budget is crucial for validating our understanding of climate change and sea-level rise. Satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) and altimetry are primary tools for measuring the ocean mass. Still, both datasets must be corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the ongoing viscoelastic response of the Earth to past deglaciation. [...]
Coral reef commitments are largely absent from national biodiversity and climate frameworks
Published: 2025-11-21
Subjects: Biodiversity, Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oceanography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Global agreements under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) call for integrated action on biodiversity loss and climate change. Yet national implementation remains poorly understood, even for ecosystems highly vulnerable to warming, such as tropical coral reefs. Bleaching-level heat stress has affected over 85% of global reefs [...]
Changes in Oceanic Carbon Storage due to Anthropogenic Carbon Input over the Past Three Decades
Published: 2025-11-18
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography
While the ocean is known to be an important sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, assessing trends in ocean’s uptake and storage of atmospheric CO2 is complicated because changes in the ocean dissolvedinorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations due to natural ocean circulation patterns and flux of anthropogenic CO2 need to be disentangled. In this study, we analyze the interannual and decadal changes [...]