Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Mind the uncertainty: Global plate model choice impacts deep-time palaeobiological studies
Published: 2023-06-23
Subjects: Biodiversity, Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Geology, Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
1. Global plate models (GPMs) aim to reconstruct the tectonic evolution of the Earth by modelling the motion of the plates and continents through time. These models enable palaeobiologists to study the past distribution of extinct organisms. However, different GPMs exist that vary in their partitioning of the Earth's surface and the modelling of continental motions. Consequently, the preferred [...]
Projected Changes in Hot, Dry and Compound Hot-Dry Extremes over Global Land Regions
Published: 2023-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The impacts of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes are significant for societies, economies and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes over global land [...]
Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AI
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work [...]
Climate controls on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Solar and wind power are central to Australia’s renewable energy future, which implies an energy sector vulnerable to weather and climate variability. Alignment of weather systems and the influence of large-scale climate modes of variability risks widespread reductions in solar and wind resources, and could induce grid-wide impacts. We therefore systematically analyse the relationship between [...]
How high is high enough? A multi-million-member ensemble analysis of future climate scenarios and their relevance
Published: 2023-06-03
Subjects: Climate
Assessments of high-forcing climate scenarios provide unique insight into possible high-risk climate change impacts in the 21st century and beyond. Given rapid and ongoing societal changes (e.g., population growth, energy demand, technology, etc.), debates are increasing on the continued relevance of these 'high-forcing' scenarios, such as those designed to reach 8.5 W/m2 by the end of the [...]
Large-scale Climate Modes Drive Low-frequency Regional Arctic Sea Ice Variability
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Climate
Summer Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly but with superimposed variability on multiple timescales that introduces large uncertainties into projections of future sea ice loss. To better understand what drives at least part of this variability, we show how a simple linear model can link dominant modes of climate variability to low-frequency regional Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies. [...]
Exponential life-threatening rise of the global temperature
Published: 2023-05-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Nature and Society Relations
Global temperatures are rising. This paper demonstrates for the first time that the global temperature increase has not been linear but is exponential with a doubling time of about 25 years. Both the amount of carbon dioxide produced by the combustion of fossil fuels and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have also risen exponentially, with a similar doubling time. The exponential [...]
The Future in Anthropocene Science
Published: 2023-05-23
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Sustainability
The Anthropocene is the present time of human-caused accelerating global change, and new forms of Anthropocene risk are emerging that society has hitherto never experienced. Science and policy are grappling with the temporal and spatial magnitude of these changes, as well as the diminishing margin between science and policy itself. However, there is a gap in the transparency — and perhaps even in [...]
Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention
Published: 2023-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, International and Area Studies, Other Statistics and Probability, Risk Analysis
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. To date, most work on this topic has imagined that an international organization like the United Nations or an international coalition of states will synchronize their efforts to deploy climate intervention at ideal [...]
Carbon Utilization and Storage through Rehabilitation of Groundwater Wells
Published: 2023-05-21
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations (UN), rise in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to anthropogenic factors is considered as the primary driver for global climate change. With almost every major corporation around the world working towards their “net-zero goals”, it is becoming increasingly important to have more [...]
A Climate Counternarrative: Dubious Carbon Accounting is Making a Canopy Problem Look Like an Energy Problem (for Consent and Profit)
Published: 2023-05-13
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate, Forest Sciences, Soil Science
The modern rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide is man-made but driven by land stewardship changes rather than industrial activities like fossil fuels. Carbon cycle research fails to adequately convey surface-level interactions like plants soaking up carbon dioxide emitted near them. Clear-cutting a forest, for instance, produces a large plume of biogenic carbon dioxide that wind can carry away, [...]
Spatial optimality and temporal variability in Australia's wind resource
Published: 2023-05-04
Subjects: Climate, Natural Resources Management and Policy
To meet electricity demand using renewable energy supply, wind farm locations should be chosen to minimise variability in output, especially at night when solar photovoltaics cannot be relied upon. Wind farm location must balance grid-proximity, resource potential, and wind correlation between farms. A top-down planning approach for farm locations can mitigate demand unmet by wind supply, yet the [...]
Climate energy balance models: two layers, orders, timescales, or regions?
Published: 2023-04-28
Subjects: Climate
Climate energy balance models (EBMs) – simple energy-balance-based models of climate change – are widely used. The simplest “linear” EBM is deficient in capturing the behavior of complex climate models, so a “two-layer” model with an additional degree of complexity, i.e. two vertical layers, is typically used. Other additional degrees of complexity are equally plausible as well, however, and [...]
Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate
Published: 2023-04-20
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis
Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or [...]
Revisiting the Climate Narrative
Published: 2023-04-06
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Food Science, Forest Management, Hydrology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Environmental Sciences, Soil Science, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
The rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide is chiefly tied to land stewardship. Farmers and loggers have removed the plants that, until the industrial era, kept the soil fungi alive, kept soil emissions nearby by breaking the wind, and soaked those up. The result is plumes of carbon dioxide. Putting plants back in would curb these emissions. Farmers and loggers could address biodiversity loss [...]