Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Robust networks of rainfall extremes emerge despite fragile ocean monsoon causality under Internal variability
Published: 2025-08-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography
Climate ready multi sectoral risk management relies on understanding not only where extreme rainfall occurs but also how such events synchronize across regions and interact with internal climate modes. The stability of synchronized rainfall networks and remote climate forcings under internal climate variability (ICV), especially when aggregating ensemble simulations for statistical robustness, [...]
The Indispensable Role of Weather Data in Consumer Spending Prediction: A Robust Machine Learning Assessment
Published: 2025-07-31
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
Accurate forecasting of daily consumer spending is crucial for strategic decision-making in the retail sector, yet the dynamic influence of weather is often underestimated or insufficiently integrated into predictive models. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of incorporating both historical and 7-day weather forecast data on predicting consumer spending amounts across three diverse [...]
Future Sea Ice-Ocean and Biological Productivity Changes in the North Water Polynya Region under Policy Relevant Warming Levels
Published: 2025-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the most productive biological regions in the Arctic with high importance to Inuit and Greenlandic communities. To provide insights into the potential changes of this region as global temperatures rise, we investigated the sea ice, and physical and biological oceanic responses of the NOW to low (2 °C) and high (>3.5 °C) levels of warming using the [...]
Household climate adaptations reflect patterning in climate events
Published: 2025-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
It is well-documented that households respond to climate events with climate adaptations, risk-management strategies like livelihood diversification, migration, or remittances – sending money and goods across distances. However, the focus is largely on responses to single climate events, while suggestive evidence indicates that temporal and spatial patterns across multiple events – including [...]
The Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation is a Quasi-Semiannual, Propagating Disturbance
Published: 2025-07-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a well-studied mode of regional climate variability, associated with fluctuations in sea-level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, and the North Atlantic jet. These fluctuations have been perceived as a seesawing between two climatic phases, one corresponding to a more poleward jet and the other to a more equatorward. However, recent work has shown that zonal [...]
Topological and Information-Theoretic Analysis of Climate-Driven Indonesian Throughflow Dynamics
Published: 2025-06-29
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Climate, Non-linear Dynamics, Oceanography
The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) represents the sole tropical pathway connecting Pacific and Indian Oceans, yet quantitative understanding of climate mode influences on its variability remains incomplete. We applied information-theoretic and topological frameworks to analyze 34 years (1984-2017) of observational ITF transport data alongside ENSO and IOD indices. Bootstrap analysis revealed [...]
Assessing Climate and Watershed Controls on Rain-on-Snow Runoff Using XGBoost-SHAP Explainable AI (XAI)
Published: 2025-06-27
Subjects: Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Water Resource Management
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events significantly impact hydrological processes in snowy regions, yet their seasonal drivers remain poorly understood, particularly in low-elevation and low-gradient catchments. This study uses an XGBoost-SHAP explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model to analyze meteorological and watershed controls on ROS runoff in the Great Lakes Basin. We used daily discharge, [...]
Food security beyond borders: how crop imports affect drought risk of conflict-affected countries
Published: 2025-06-25
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability
Drought events can disrupt food security and increase the risk of violent conflicts. In an interconnected global food system, countries rely on both local food production and imports to meet domestic demand. When assessing the impact of drought risk on national food security, however, imported crops are often overlooked. This study incorporates international crop trade information to understand [...]
Mapping textures of polar ice cores using 3D laboratory X-ray microscopy
Published: 2025-06-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Glaciology
Deep ice cores from polar ice sheets enable reconstructions of Earth’s past climate. Ice-core records are therefore crucial for projecting future climate change, however, our ability to interpret them relies on our understanding of polycrystalline-ice microstructures and mechanics. In turn, these microstructures enable modeling of ice flow and large-scale effects of ice-sheet evolution. Since [...]
Strengthening ITF and Weakening AMOC: Time Series Evidence of Trends and Causal Pathways to Agulhas Variability
Published: 2025-06-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Oceanography, Statistical Models
Multi-decadal observations of major ocean circulation systems reveal contrasting trends and complex inter-basin connectivity patterns that challenge traditional conceptualizations of global ocean circulation. Using non-parametric trend analysis, multi-method causality testing, and wavelet coherence techniques, we analyzed volume transport time series spanning 1984--2023 for the Indonesian [...]
The spatio-temporal variability, trends, and drivers of winter Arctic polynyas
Published: 2025-06-06
Subjects: Climate
Polynyas, thin-ice or open water regions within the sea ice, have regularly been observed in the Arctic since satellite observations began in the 1970s. Their opening, in response to complex interactions between several drivers, significantly influences the regional weather and climate, ecosystem, and the global ocean. Yet their monitoring at the pan-Arctic scale is rare since their detection is [...]
High-Resolution Methane Detection with the GHGSat Constellation
Published: 2025-05-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring
GHGSat operates a constellation of small satellites designed to detect and quantify methane emissions with high sensitivity compared with existing satellite technologies. An important feature of GHGSat measurements is the high spatial resolution (~25m), which enables attribution of emissions to specific facilities and subsequent corrective action from the operator. The GHGSat constellation [...]
The Interplay of Vegetation and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Flash Drought Prediction
Published: 2025-05-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring
Flash droughts, known for their rapid onset and intensification, pose a significant threat to agriculture and water resources. The 2011 Texas flash drought, with its widespread agricultural losses exceeding $7.6 billion and severe ecological consequences, was a stark demonstration of their devastating impacts. This study investigates the crucial role of vegetation in numerical modeling of flash [...]
A SCALABLE MACHINE LEARNING MODELLING TOOL FOR MAPPING LANDSLIDE RUNOUT USING A CASE STUDY IN HAWKES BAY, NEW ZEALAND
Published: 2025-05-02
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geotechnical Engineering, Other Statistics and Probability
Understanding landslide runout is crucial for land use planning, utility networks, and assessing infrastructure resilience on slopes. Recent guidance recommends incorporating landslide runout models along with climate change implications when assessing land for development. The advancement of machine learning (ML) techniques can offer new insights and a tool to be used alongside current methods. [...]
Evolution of the Climate as an Attributable Complex System with Main Cause
Published: 2025-04-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Attributable complex systems can be classified into two categories: those with a main cause and those without. The climate is an attributable complex system with a main cause, where CO2 concentration serves as the primary fingerprint. The essential dynamics of climate change can be effectively captured through the representation of CO2 concentration. In this study, we analyze global warming in [...]