Filtering by Subject: Climate

Benefit-cost ratios of CO2 removal strategies

B. B. Cael, Philip Goodwin, David Stainforth

Published: 2023-01-13
Subjects: Climate

Limiting global warming to 1.5$^\circ$C will very likely require, or to 2$^\circ$C may require, large-scale removal of carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) from the atmosphere. Many CO$_2$ removal strategies (CDRSs), or negative emissions technologies, have been proposed, which vary widely in both price per ton of CO$_2$ removed and storage timescale of this removed CO$_2$, as well as mechanism, maturity, [...]

Improving Shoreline Forecasting Models with Multi-Objective Genetic Programming

Mahmoud Al Najar, Rafael Almar, Erwin W. J. Bergsma, et al.

Published: 2023-01-11
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography, Sedimentology, Statistical Models

Given the current context of climate change and the increasing population densities at coastal zones around the globe, there is an increasing need to be able to predict the development of our coasts. Recent advances in artificial intelligence allow for automatic analysis of observational data. Symbolic Regression (SR) is a type of Machine Learning algorithm that aims to find interpretable [...]

Weakening of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the mid-Holocene due to the mean oceanic climatology change

Shanshan Liu, Chaoxia Yuan, Jing-jia Luo, et al.

Published: 2023-01-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Paleoclimate provides real climate scenarios to examine IOD behaviors and the linkage to basic states. Based on 18 models from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3 and 4 (PMIP 3/4), the IOD change from the preindustrial period to mid-Holocene is [...]

The Dry Sky: Futures for Humanity’s Modification of the Atmospheric Water Cycle

Patrick W Keys, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Michele-Lee Moore, et al.

Published: 2022-12-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Sustainability, Water Resource Management

Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Given the implications of this, we present a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good. Historically, atmospheric water was tacitly considered a ‘public good’ since it was neither actively consumed (rival) nor controlled (exclusive). However, given [...]

Global methane pledge versus lower CO2 emissions

B. B. Cael, Philip Goodwin

Published: 2022-12-05
Subjects: Climate

Methane (CH$_4$) is a potent greenhouse gas whose contribution to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system is second only to carbon dioxide (CO$_2$). CH$_4$ emission reduction has become central to global climate mitigation policy, resulting most notably in the Global Methane Pledge (GMP), pledging a 30\% reduction of CH$_4$ emissions by 2030. Methane is, however, much shorter-lived [...]

Epitomic Data for Community Land Model Standalone Simulations for Prognostic Analyses of Tropical Mountain Glaciation and Lake Temperature in Pre-Industrial, Last Glacial Maximum, and Extreme Glacial Climates

Nicholas Gray Heavens

Published: 2022-11-15
Subjects: Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Glaciology, Hydrology

Global climate models typically simulate climate at much larger spatial scales than tropical mountain glaciers and many of the world’s lakes. Yet some of the proxy data that can be used to validate models of past climate on land come from and are related to these geographic features. Validating global climate models using these proxies requires some method of downscaling global climate model [...]

North African dust absorbs less solar radiation than estimated by models and remote-sensing retrievals

Adeyemi A Adebiyi, Yue Huang, Bjørn H. Samset, et al.

Published: 2022-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Desert dust accounts for a large fraction of shortwave radiation absorbed by aerosols, which adds to the climate warming produced by greenhouse gases. However, it remains uncertain exactly how much shortwave radiation dust absorbs. We leverage in-situ measurements of dust single-scattering albedo to constrain absorption at mid-visible wavelength by North African dust, which accounts for [...]

Skilful forecasts of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

Philip Bett, Nick Dunstone, Nicola Golding, et al.

Published: 2022-10-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Variability in the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River Basin, with potentially devastating impacts. Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers, supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across Eastern [...]

Deterministic icehouse and greenhouse climates throughout Earth history

Tyler Kukla, Kimberly V. Lau, Daniel Enrique Ibarra, et al.

Published: 2022-10-06
Subjects: Climate, Geochemistry

Some theories posit that icehouse (with polar ice sheets) and greenhouse (ice-free) states throughout Earth history are not deterministic, but bistable—both states may occur for the same level of radiative forcing. If correct, then the climate state that persists for millions of years can depend on which state already existed, giving the system a `memory’ effect. However, on these timescales the [...]

Characteristics of Dust Storms Generated by Trapped Waves in the Lee of Mountains

Amato Tomas Evan, William Porter, Rachel Clemsha, et al.

Published: 2022-09-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Dust storms are ubiquitous in the Earth's atmosphere, yet the physical processes underlying dust emission and subsequent transport are not always understood, in-part due to the wide variety of meteorological processes that can generate high winds and dust. Here we use in-situ measurements and numerical modeling to demonstrate that vertically trapped atmospheric waves generated by air flowing over [...]

All aboard! Earth system investigations with the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN v1.0

Tyler Kukla, Daniel Enrique Ibarra, Kimberly V. Lau, et al.

Published: 2022-09-24
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Models of the carbon cycle and climate on geologic (>10^4 year) timescales have improved tremendously in the last 50 years due to parallel advances in our understanding of the Earth system and the increase in computing power to simulate its key processes. Despite these advances, balancing the Earth System's vast complexity with a model's computational expense is a primary challenge in model [...]

Rapid estimation of climate-air quality interactions in integrated assessment using a response surface model

Sebastian David Eastham, Erwan Monier, Daniel Rothenberg, et al.

Published: 2022-09-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies

Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing them in combination. High-fidelity chemistry-climate simulations can capture combined climate-air quality responses to policy change, but computational cost has prevented integration of accurate air quality impacts into integrated [...]

Plant Breeding Biomolecular Classification in Quantum Bayesianism (QBism) Physics-Informed Neural Network Architecture

Karriem A.J. Perry, Barbara S Keary

Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Climate, Other Statistics and Probability, Plant Sciences, Probability, Quantum Physics, Research Methods in Life Sciences, Soil Science, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, Sustainability, Systems Biology

In this brief communication, biomolecular plant breeding multi-classification inference is discussed when leveraging the advantages of Physics-informed Neural Network (PiNN) architecture. Albeit, the expected utility of Partial Differential Equation (PDE) inspired neural networks resides in its performance under limited data availability; a variety of neural network configurations result from PDE [...]

Meteorological Drivers of Resource Adequacy Failures in Current and High Renewable Western U.S. Power Systems

Srihari Sundar, Michael Craig, Ashley Payne, et al.

Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis

Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic [...]

Much of Zero Emissions Commitment Occurs Before Reaching Net Zero Emissions

Charles D. Koven, Benjamin Sanderson, Abigail L. S. Swann

Published: 2022-08-26
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences

We explore the response of the Earth’s climate and carbon system to an idealized sequential addition and removal of CO2 to the atmosphere, following a symmetric and continuous emissions pathway, in contrast to the discontinuous emissions pathways that have largely informed our understanding of the climate response to net-zero and net-negative emissions to date. We find, using both an Earth [...]


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