Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
The three causal pathways of ENSO teleconnections to High Mountain Asia winter precipitation
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
High Mountain Asia (HMA), spanning from the Hindu Kush to the Tibetan Plateau, encompasses tropical and subtropical regions highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events and associated hazards. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant external climate modes that influence subseasonal to seasonal precipitation over HMA through various dynamical pathways. We hypothesize three [...]
ENSO Modulation of the Amazonian Low-Level Jet: More Moisture, Less Rain, and the Role of Land Surface Reception
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology
The Amazonian Low-Level Jet (ALLJ) carries moisture from the tropical Atlantic coast into the basin interior, sustaining wet-season convection. Here we analyze 45 years of ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2023), 44 years of CHIRPS precipitation (1981–2024), GRACE terrestrial water storage (2002–2025), and SMAP root-zone soil moisture (2015–2024) to determine how ENSO modulates this transport pathway and its [...]
Unequal weather exposure across teams and groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup: an event-based analysis using hourly reanalysis
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Human Geography
The connection between climate change and sports is evident, as sports contribute to environmental challenges, while climate change impacts the conditions for playing, organizing, and enjoying sports. In professional football, heat, humidity, rain, wind, and insufficient recovery time at night can influence player health, physical stress, and game performance. Evaluations of the 2026 FIFA World [...]
Marine Heatwaves Disrupt Phytoplankton Communities Through Trait-dependent Selection
Published: 2026-05-24
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Marine Biology
Phytoplankton communities, key regulators of marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, are susceptible to sea surface temperature variability, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, their trait-dependent responses and the resulting compositional shifts during MHWs remain poorly understood. Here, using an advanced global ocean–biogeochemical model that resolves 310 phytoplankton trait [...]
Wildfire smoke offsets decades of progress in reducing ozone exposure across the United States
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences
Ground-level ozone (O3) pollution has declined in the U.S., yet the progress has stalled in recent years, coinciding with increasing wildfire smoke. Using ensemble machine learning models trained on surface observations, we develop a gridded daily smoke O3 dataset across the contiguous U.S. from 2006-2023. We estimate that wildfire smoke placed an additional 29 million people each year in areas [...]
Analysis of sub-regional climates in the European Alps based on the EEAR-Clim observational dataset
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
The European Alps exhibit a complex geomorphology and undergo the influences of different climate regimes, resulting in high spatial variability of climatic variables and their changes. To provide a detailed analysis of climate regions and climatic changes occurring at a sub-regional scale during the 1961-2020 period, we exploited an updated regionalization of the European Alps that benefits from [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
Lumped Thermal Impedance Modeling of Anthropogenic Global Warming of the Troposphere
Published: 2026-05-18
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Anthropogenic global warming has reached a level so high that it is now possible to an- alyze its dynamics and spatial variation. Spatially varying Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies [1] can be well described by exponential functions with increase rates that range from 2.1 to 3.7% per year, depending on the region. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed significantly more than the Southern [...]
Transformation of climatologically anomalous water masses
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We derive a novel anomalous water mass budget framework in which water masses are defined by bounds on tracer anomalies rather than absolute tracer values, extending Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory to ocean variability and extremes. The material derivative of tracer anomalies introduces three additional transformation terms absent from the standard WMT framework: advection of [...]
Pakistan's Orographic Ladder: Terrain-Constrained Water Potential and the Atmospheric Mechanism Suppressing It
Published: 2026-05-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology
Pakistan's north-south topographic gradient, 0 m at the Arabian Sea coast rising to 8,611 m at K2 across five distinct ridge systems, represents one of the largest orographic condensation machines on the planet. The terrain's theoretical water yield, set by Arabian Sea moisture flux and ridge geometry alone, far exceeds what Pakistan currently captures. We show that a single atmospheric variable, [...]
Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Thermal Conditions, Vegetation Dynamics, and Built-up Expansion in Ahmedabad, India (2000–2025) Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Analysis.
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Sustainability, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Rapid urban expansion has substantially altered urban thermal conditions across many semi-arid cities. This study examined spatiotemporal variation in land surface temperature (LST), vegetation cover, and built-up intensity across Ahmedabad, India, between 2000 and 2025 using multi-temporal Landsat imagery and the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Spatial analysis revealed progressive expansion [...]
Wet and Dry Hydrological Conditions Reduce Chlorophyll-a at River-Lake Interfaces
Published: 2026-05-10
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Fresh Water Studies, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Water Resource Management
Hydrological variation is intensifying under climate change, yet its net effects on lake water quality remain uncertain. Wet and dry hydrological conditions are commonly assumed to exacerbate eutrophication by increasing nutrient inputs during wet conditions or concentrating nutrients during dry conditions. However, these events can also activate counteracting processes—such as dilution, or [...]
Sustained Decline of Annual Snow Cover Area in the Sikkim Himalaya (1987–2025): Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing on Google Earth Engine, Machine Learning, and Projections to 2100
Published: 2026-05-03
Subjects: Climate, Glaciology, Hydrology, Planetary Glaciology, Planetary Hydrology, Remote Sensing
Snow cover is a critical component of the Himalayan cryosphere, providing freshwater to millions of people across South Asia and regulating regional climate through albedo feedbacks. Sikkim, a small but ecologically significant state in the Eastern Himalaya, has experienced accelerating glacial retreat and mounting hydrological stress in recent decades. This study presents a comprehensive, [...]
Long-term future Greenland ice loss determined by peak global warming
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Glaciology
The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is known to be very sensitive to climate change, and persistent global warming only slightly higher than today could be enough to completely melt it. However, the implications of a temporary crossing of this temperature threshold for future GrIS mass loss remain unknown. Here we present simulations of the next 10,000 years under different future anthropogenic [...]
Scale-dependent controls on forest carbon uptake across hydroclimatic extremes
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Sciences, Sustainability
Conifer forests span some of the most climatically contrasting environments on Earth, from energy-limited Boreal systems to water-limited semi-arid ecosystems. Whether their carbon uptake is governed by universal drivers or by site-specific boundary conditions remains unresolved. Using more than two decades of eddy-covariance and multi-depth soil moisture measurements from two climatic [...]