Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences
Human activities are expected to delay the next glacial inception because of the long atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. We present the first Earth system model simulations for the next 200,000 years with dynamic ice sheets and interactive atmospheric CO2, exploring how emissions will impact a future glacial inception. Historical emissions (500 PgC) are unlikely to delay inception, [...]
Large reductions in United States heat extremes found in overshoot simulations with SPEAR
Published: 2025-03-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident in the observational record, and these increases are expected to be further amplified in future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally to emissions reductions and declines of greenhouse gases later in the 21st century, such as through the [...]
Ediacaran coupling of climate and biosphere dynamics
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Climate, Glaciology, Paleontology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Throughout the Phanerozoic (538.8 Ma to present), climate change is demonstrably linked to radiations, extinctions, and turnovers in the biosphere. Here, we show that this connection existed in the late Ediacaran (~579 to 538.8 Ma), the first interval in Earth’s history to host complex macro-organisms, including early metazoans. Current correlations of glacial sedimentary deposits have been used [...]
Reduced Precipitation on Rapa Nui During the Decline of the Moai Culture
Published: 2025-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
From approximately 1200-1600 CE, Polynesian settlers on the island of Rapa Nui engaged in megalithic monument construction, crafting hundreds of Ahu platforms and Moai statues from volcanic bedrock. The decline of this tradition has intrigued archaeologists for decades. The most widely disseminated hypothesis surrounding the demise of the Ahu Moai culture suggests that the Rapanui overexploited [...]
Philadelphia and the Schuylkill under extreme hydrometeorological events
Published: 2025-02-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
The Schuylkill River, a lifeline for Philadelphia, faces intensifying stress from urbanization and increasingly severe extreme hydrometeorological events (EHMEs) driven by climate change. Understanding how urban estuarine rivers respond to EHMEs remains challenging due to limited high-resolution data and the complexness of human-modified landscapes. Here, we combine long-term hydrological [...]
A bipolar convection seesaw explains Earth system response to Heinrich events
Published: 2025-01-25
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Oceanography
Extra-polar cloud feedbacks as a driver of Arctic amplification
Published: 2025-01-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing
Published: 2025-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance. Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating the effective forcing usually relies on climate models. Here, we [...]
Monthly Sea-Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea-Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation
Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Historical observations of Earth's climate underpin our knowledge and predictions of climate variability and change. However, the observations are incomplete and uncertain, and existing datasets based on these observations typically do not assimilate observations simultaneously across different components of the climate system, yielding inconsistencies that limit understanding of coupled climate [...]
Sea level rise submergence simulations suggest substantial deterioration of Indian River Lagoon ecosystem services by 2050, Florida, U.S.A.
Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
The Indian River Lagoon is a 250-km-long Estuary of National Significance located along the east-central Florida coast of the USA. NOAA tidal data generated at a station located in the central reaches of the estuary indicate sea level rise has accelerated over the duration of record to an average of 9.6 ± 1.6 mm year−1 (2003–2022). It is expected to continue accelerating over the duration of this [...]
Site Planning for a Network of Government-operated Weather Stations in the Dominican Republic Using Zonal Statistics from Geospatial Sources, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, and Neighborhood Analysis
Published: 2024-12-30
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Many weather station networks lack sufficient representativeness, and their station density is often inadequate to capture spatial and climatic variability effectively. Optimal site selection is therefore essential to enhance spatial coverage and improve data quality. This study proposes a methodology for identifying optimal sites for a meteorological station network in the Dominican Republic, [...]
Preliminary Development of Machine Learning Emulators for Long-Term Atmospheric CO2 Evolution
Published: 2024-12-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Environmental Chemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study evaluates machine learning emulators for modeling long-term atmospheric CO2 evolution by comparing Random Forests (RF) and Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) in replicating cGENIE Earth System Model outputs over a one-million-year timescale. Using one-year pulse emission experiments spanning 1,000-20,000 PgC with outputs tracked for 106 years, we assessed emulator performance across multiple [...]
Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, resulting in long-term changes in their mass with implications for sea level rise and water supply, even if the climate were to stabilize. Using eight glacier evolution models, we simulate global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature [...]
Disappearance of Homo floresiensis from Liang Bua alongside seasonal aridification of Flores 61,000-47,000 years ago
Published: 2024-12-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Paleobiology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The cause of the disappearance of the primitive hominin, Homo floresiensis, from the Indonesian island of Flores ~50,000 years ago is a key question in palaeoanthropology. The potential roles of human agency and climate change continue to be debated, but the history of freshwater availability critical to survival at the type locality, Liang Bua, remains unknown. Although speleothem 18O is used [...]
Smoke in your eyes: Investigating the effects of wind power on weather trends and climate using time series analysis
Published: 2024-12-04
Subjects: Climate
Time series analysis developed in the previous report [1] for UK mean summer temperature has been applied to further examples of weather trends, including temperature, rainfall and Sahara dust, and so at global, regional, national and local levels, in an attempt to assess whether wind power is having a deleterious effect on weather patterns. The analysis involves detrending weather data by [...]