Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Temporal and Spatial Satellite Data Augmentation for Deep Learning-Based Rainfall Nowcasting
Published: 2023-10-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change has been associated with alterations in precipitation patterns and increased vulnerability to floods and droughts. The need for improvements in forecasting and monitoring approaches has become imperative due to flash floods and severe flooding. Rainfall prediction is a challenging but critical issue owing to the complexity of atmospheric processes, the spatial and temporal [...]
No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in absence of a global tipping point
Published: 2023-09-25
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a significant climate-sensitive carbon pool. Its potential for loss due to climatic changes leading to a global tipping point, where thawing accelerates with disproportionate impacts, remains debated. Here, we provide an integrative perspective on this question, building on a cross-disciplinary meta-analysis of [...]
Shifting institutional culture to develop climate solutions with Open Science
Published: 2023-09-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
imc-precip-iso: Open monthly stable isotope data of precipitation over the Indonesian Maritime Continent
Published: 2023-08-12
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Stable isotopes, $\delta^2$H, $\delta^{18}$O, and d-excess, are valuable tools as natural tracers of diffusion processes and phase changes in the global hydroclimatological cycle. The Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) is an archipelago area surrounded by very warm waters which induce convective activities as the primary heat source driving global atmospheric circulation. Given the central role [...]
Eocene (50-55 Ma) greenhouse climate recorded in nonmarine rocks of San Diego, CA, USA
Published: 2023-08-08
Subjects: Chemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science, Stratigraphy
Nonmarine rocks in sea cliffs of southern California store a detailed record of weathering under tropical conditions millions of years ago, where today the climate is much drier and cooler. This work examines early Eocene (~50-55 million-year-old) deeply weathered paleosols (ancient, buried soils) exposed in marine terraces of northern San Diego County, California, and uses their geochemistry and [...]
Marine zooplankton acclimated to geological warming but face limits by the next century
Published: 2023-08-06
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography
Climate changes have threatened marine organisms causing migrations, biomass reduction and extinctions. However, the capacity of marine species to adapt or acclimate to these changes remains poorly constrained in both geological and anthropogenic timescales. Such uncertainty makes modelling past and future ocean biodiversity and ecosystem functions challenging, particularly for the plankton [...]
Evaluating Climate Signals on Global Coastal Shoreline Positions A commentary on “Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position” by Almar and colleagues.
Published: 2023-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences
Almar and colleagues (2023) are correct in stating that, “understanding and predicting shoreline evolution is of great importance for coastal management.” Amongst the different timescales of shoreline change, the interannual and decadal timescales are of particular interest to coastal scientists as they reflect the integrated system response to the Earth’s climate and its natural modes of [...]
Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates
Published: 2023-07-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature (“pattern effects”); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how [...]
Assessing Precipitation Trends that may inform Aging Dam Overtopping across the USA
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis
In many cases, persistent or recurrent synoptic circulation patterns lead to multiple wet days that precede an extreme rainfall event. The joint occurrence of high antecedent rainfall and extreme rainfall defines a compound event that may pose a high risk for overtopping of aging dams. Our novel analysis assesses whether there are significant trends across the conterminous United States (CONUS) [...]
Ensemble of land-surface air temperatures between 1880-2022 using a revised pair-wise homogenization algorithm
Published: 2023-07-06
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Various observational estimates of historical land surface air temperature (LSAT) trends differ on account of differences in corrections. Relative to the most-recent estimate provided by NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Monthly Version 4 (GHCNm4), an estimate by Berkeley Earth is 0.02°C warmer and one by the Climate Research Unit (CRUTEM5) is 0.14°C warmer between 1880–1940. Such [...]
360-day to Gregorian calendar climate model output conversion
Published: 2023-07-05
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Data from some climate model simulations is in a 360 days per year format, that is, every month is 30 days long. The main reason for this is analytical convenience in creating seasonal, annual and multi-annual means which are an integral part of climate model development and evaluation. This work illustrates a method to convert daily-mean, 360-day calendar climate model data into 'real', [...]
Performance evaluation of a simple feed-forward deep neural network model applied to annual rainfall anomaly index (RAI) over Indramayu, Indonesia
Published: 2023-06-30
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Indramayu is a district in West Java that is known for being the leading producer of rice and brackish salt. The production of these two commodities is strongly influenced by hydroclimatological conditions, making accurate and reliable long-term estimates crucial. In this study, we evaluated a simple feed-forward deep neural network (DNN) model that could potentially be used as a candidate for [...]
Global 1km Land Surface Parameters for Kilometer-Scale Earth System Modeling
Published: 2023-06-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (k-scale). However, the surface parameters for Land Surface Models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, [...]
Mind the uncertainty: Global plate model choice impacts deep-time palaeobiological studies
Published: 2023-06-23
Subjects: Biodiversity, Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Geology, Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
1. Global plate models (GPMs) aim to reconstruct the tectonic evolution of the Earth by modelling the motion of the plates and continents through time. These models enable palaeobiologists to study the past distribution of extinct organisms. However, different GPMs exist that vary in their partitioning of the Earth's surface and the modelling of continental motions. Consequently, the preferred [...]
Projected Changes in Hot, Dry and Compound Hot-Dry Extremes over Global Land Regions
Published: 2023-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The impacts of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes are significant for societies, economies and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes over global land [...]