Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Evolution of the Climate as an Attributable Complex System with Main Cause
Published: 2025-04-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Attributable complex systems can be classified into two categories: those with a main cause and those without. The climate is an attributable complex system with a main cause, where CO2 concentration serves as the primary fingerprint. The essential dynamics of climate change can be effectively captured through the representation of CO2 concentration. In this study, we analyze global warming in [...]
Heatwave Characteristics in Different Ecosystems across Türkiye: Historical and Future Insights from CMIP6 Simulations
Published: 2025-04-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Heatwaves pose significant threats to diverse sectors, including agriculture and forestry. This extreme weather event is characterized by prolonged periods of exceptionally high air temperatures and has caused substantial economic damage and affecting millions. During heatwave events, agricultural and forest lands are affected by intensified thermal stress and water scarcity, impacting plant [...]
A realistic climate strategy
Published: 2025-04-12
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
The international climate strategy is failing. Current policies will act too slowly to prevent rising temperatures from crossing critical climate tipping points. IPCC assessments underestimate the non-linear risks and catastrophic costs of overshooting Paris Agreement targets. Opponents of solar geoengineering cite concerns about moral hazard and other potential risks; however, at this juncture [...]
Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the Rapid Impact Model Emulator (RIME)
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate model emulation has long been applied to assess the global climate outcomes of integrated assessment model (IAM)IAM emissions scenarios, but is typically limited to first-order climate variables like mean surface air temperatures at minimal limited regional resolution. Here we introduce RIME, the Rapid Impact Model Emulator, which uses global warming level interpolation approaches based [...]
Weakening of AMOC linked to past Greenland Ice Sheet retreat
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to occur under multiple scenarios of future warming. However, the effect of meltwater from a decaying Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on AMOC is uncertain. Using a basin-wide network of North Atlantic sediment cores, we show that the largescale melting of the GrIS during a previous interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c [...]
Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences
Human activities are expected to delay the next glacial inception because of the long atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. We present the first Earth system model simulations for the next 200,000 years with dynamic ice sheets and interactive atmospheric CO2, exploring how emissions will impact a future glacial inception. Historical emissions (500 PgC) are unlikely to delay inception, [...]
Large reductions in United States heat extremes found in overshoot simulations with SPEAR
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident in the observational record, and these increases are expected to be further amplified in future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally to emissions reductions and declines of greenhouse gases later in the 21st century, such as through the [...]
Ediacaran coupling of climate and biosphere dynamics
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Climate, Glaciology, Paleontology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Throughout the Phanerozoic (538.8 Ma to present), climate change is demonstrably linked to radiations, extinctions, and turnovers in the biosphere. Here, we show that this connection existed in the late Ediacaran (~579 to 538.8 Ma), the first interval in Earth’s history to host complex macro-organisms, including early metazoans. Current correlations of glacial sedimentary deposits have been used [...]
Reduced Precipitation on Rapa Nui During the Decline of the Moai Culture
Published: 2025-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
From approximately 1200-1600 CE, Polynesian settlers on the island of Rapa Nui engaged in megalithic monument construction, crafting hundreds of Ahu platforms and Moai statues from volcanic bedrock. The decline of this tradition has intrigued archaeologists for decades. The most widely disseminated hypothesis surrounding the demise of the Ahu Moai culture suggests that the Rapanui overexploited [...]
Climate Extremes at the City–River Interface: Insights from the Philadelphia-Schuylkill System
Published: 2025-02-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
Hurricane Ida struck the U.S. East Coast in August 2021, pushing the Schuylkill River in Philadelphia to a record discharge nearly 100 times larger than its average flow. As one of the most severe disasters of the 21st century, Ida exemplifies the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events under climate change. Predicting urban flood pathways remains challenging due [...]
A bipolar convection seesaw explains Earth system response to Heinrich events
Published: 2025-01-25
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Oceanography
Extra-polar cloud feedbacks as a driver of Arctic amplification
Published: 2025-01-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing
Published: 2025-01-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance. Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating the effective forcing usually relies on climate models. Here, we [...]
Monthly Sea-Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Sea-Level Pressure over 1850–2023 from Coupled Data Assimilation
Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Historical observations of Earth's climate underpin our knowledge and predictions of climate variability and change. However, the observations are incomplete and uncertain, and existing datasets based on these observations typically do not assimilate observations simultaneously across different components of the climate system, yielding inconsistencies that limit understanding of coupled climate [...]
Sea level rise submergence simulations suggest substantial deterioration of Indian River Lagoon ecosystem services by 2050, Florida, U.S.A.
Published: 2025-01-03
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
The Indian River Lagoon is a 250-km-long Estuary of National Significance located along the east-central Florida coast of the USA. NOAA tidal data generated at a station located in the central reaches of the estuary indicate sea level rise has accelerated over the duration of record to an average of 9.6 ± 1.6 mm year−1 (2003–2022). It is expected to continue accelerating over the duration of this [...]