Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Governing the cryosphere beyond political timeframes
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Glaciology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Cryospheric systems are nearing irreversible thresholds, yet political processes remain misaligned with the long timescales of ice loss. Using COP30 as context, we argue that cryosphere science must inform governance capable of linking near-term decisions with long-term stability in a rapidly changing world.
Timescales of Antarctic ice shelf loss via basal crevassing
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic ice-shelves are vulnerable to collapse in a warming climate. However, when this might happen is largely unknown, propagating significant uncertainty into sea-level-rise projections. To constrain this uncertainty, we use fracture modelling to predict the timescales on which crevasses fully penetrate ice-shelves, and consider how these timescales change under future warming. We find that [...]
The Impact of GIA Corrections on Gravimetric Basin-Scale Ocean Mass Budgets
Published: 2025-11-22
Subjects: Climate, Geophysics and Seismology
Closing the sea-level budget is crucial for validating our understanding of climate change and sea-level rise. Satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) and altimetry are primary tools for measuring the ocean mass. Still, both datasets must be corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the ongoing viscoelastic response of the Earth to past deglaciation. [...]
Coral reef commitments are largely absent from national biodiversity and climate frameworks
Published: 2025-11-21
Subjects: Biodiversity, Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oceanography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sustainability
Global agreements under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) call for integrated action on biodiversity loss and climate change. Yet national implementation remains poorly understood, even for ecosystems highly vulnerable to warming, such as tropical coral reefs. Bleaching-level heat stress has affected over 85% of global reefs [...]
Changes in Oceanic Carbon Storage due to Anthropogenic Carbon Input over the Past Three Decades
Published: 2025-11-18
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography
While the ocean is known to be an important sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, assessing trends in ocean’s uptake and storage of atmospheric CO2 is complicated because changes in the ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations due to natural ocean circulation patterns and flux of anthropogenic CO2 need to be disentangled. In this study, we analyze the interannual and decadal changes [...]
FEMA Phase-Out? Catastrophic Extremes Limit Decentralization of U.S. Flood Insurance
Published: 2025-11-13
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability, Systems Engineering
The U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) faces growing solvency and affordability pressures amid proposals to decentralize FEMA and shift disaster management to states. Many catastrophic floods span state boundaries, exposing multiple decentralized insurance pools simultaneously. Using a path-independent simulation framework that integrates risk-based premiums, [...]
Targeted weather regimes identify circulation patterns behind Western European summer heat extremes and trends
Published: 2025-11-12
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Western European heat extremes have intensified in recent decades, with their rate of warming outpacing the global mean. Against this general human-induced warming trend, understanding the circulation patterns that drive such heat extremes is crucial. Weather-regime (WR) approaches have been widely used to characterise large-scale circulation variability; however, conventional classifications are [...]
Factors Affecting Aboveground Carbon Storage in Mixed Oak-Pine Forests: A Multiple Regression Analysis of Southeastern U.S. Forest Inventory Data
Published: 2025-11-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Forest Biology, Forest Management, Multivariate Analysis, Natural Resources and Conservation, Plant Sciences, Statistical Models
This study investigated the factors affecting aboveground carbon storage in mixed oak-pine forests of the southeastern United States, with a particular focus on the influence of stand age. Using data from 946 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots collected from 2009 to 2019, a multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine the relative importance of various forest and topographic [...]
Emerging Remote Sensing Tools for Comprehensive Cryosphere Assessment
Published: 2025-10-27
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This review synthesizes current remote sensing (RS) applications for monitoring Earth's cryosphere, encompassing ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and mountain ice features. It examines how satellite-based technologies, including radar interferometry, laser altimetry, passive microwave sensors, and optical imagery, have revolutionized cryospheric science by enabling [...]
Scalable and robust Gaussian processes for reanalysis of urban air temperature with crowdsourced meteorological data
Published: 2025-10-22
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistical Models
Crowdsourced air temperature data from networks like Weather Underground offer dense spatial coverage and are increasingly used to study the canopy urban heat island (CUHI) effect. However, these observations are noisy: siting conditions, environmental interference, and sensor failures introduce spatially and temporally varying bias. This complicates interpolation, limiting our ability to [...]
Hazomes: Earth’s natural multi-hazard terrestrial disturbance regimes
Published: 2025-10-22
Subjects: Climate, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Spatial Science, Sustainability
Ecosystems and societies have evolved together and are shaped by local natural hazard regimes. We introduce hazomes, an Earth classification based on multi‑hazard disturbance patterns. By combining open‑source intensity and return period data for eight hazard types, we identify thousands of distinct terrestrial disturbance regimes. Hazomes aims to deepen insight into ecosystem and societal [...]
Statistical Characterization of LGM and Late Holocene Oceanography in the Indonesian Maritime Continent
Published: 2025-10-19
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Oceanography
This study provides a statistical characterization of surface oceanography in the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 23–19 ka) and Late Holocene (LH; 4–0 ka). Using the lgmDA v2.1 paleoclimate data assimilation product, we analyze sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and seawater $\delta^{18}$O. Results indicate the LGM was [...]
Evaluating Urban Heat Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heatwaves in Complex Terrain: A Case Study of Grenoble, France
Published: 2025-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physics
Urban heat adaptation strategies are critical for mitigating the impacts of ex- treme heat events in cities, particularly as climate change exacerbates their intensity and frequency. This study evaluates a set of adaptation strategies during the 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France, using the WRF model with the BEP+BEM urban canopy scheme. Eight scenarios are simulated, including increased [...]
Radiogenic Sr-Nd-Pb isotope behavior in different grain-sized fine lithic materials during basalt weathering
Published: 2025-10-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Radiogenic isotopes are widely used as sediment provenance tracers; however, their weathering response has not been fully established. This study investigates the weathering sensitivity of Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes in fine lithic fractions (FLF; grain size <2 μm, <5 μm, and <20 μm) capable of long-range transport. Geochemical and isotope compositions have been measured in the physicochemically [...]
Mitigation of Ultraviolet Solar Radiation Involving Calcite (MUSIC)
Published: 2025-10-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection
This investigation explores the use of calcite (CaCO3) powder, the most common and radiation-resistant form of calcium carbonate, as an environmentally friendly mechanism for solar radiation management by measuring its ability to deflect ultraviolet radiation from the sun. The experiment took place on a high-altitude balloon (HAB) payload. Three sets of laminated calcite sheets with varying [...]