Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
A moisture-weighted typical-month selection for environmental exposure screening: design and evaluation of CEY20 at 14 locations
Published: 2026-11-10
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology
Typical-year datasets condense multi-year hourly records into one year for engineering calculations. Established methods were designed for energy and solar applications, whereas moisture and thermal exposure screening needs a typical year that preserves humid-hour statistics. This study presents CEY20, a typical-month selection on the global 0.25° ERA5-Land land grid for 2006–2025. For each point [...]
Satellite data for the integrated modelling of Watershed-Coast System morphodynamics in a changing climate: a critical review and a structured framework
Published: 2026-11-09
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Geomorphology, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Oceanography, Water Resource Management
Watershed-Coast Systems (WACS) integrate the watershed and the coast as a coupled geomorphological entity whose evolution depends on climate, terrestrial, and marine drivers acting at very different scales. Modelling the morphodynamics of WACS in a changing climate is a recognised but uneven endeavour: satellite-data use has matured for inland hydrology and for coastal observation taken in [...]
Do typhoons pull Indonesian smoke into the Pacific? A pre-registered test, and the record 2026 season
Published: 2026-11-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
In August to October 2026, during an El Niño with the highest Oceanic Niño Index for those months since 1950 (+2.46 °C), smoke from Indonesian fires spread over the western North Pacific while an active typhoon season was under way. Since 2012, typhoons have been described as drawing Maritime Continent smoke into the monsoon flow and out over the ocean, but this rests on case studies and field [...]
How Greenland melts under cloudy and clear skies
Published: 2026-11-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Glaciology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Power and Energy, Systems and Communications
Greenland ice loss has risen sharply since industrialization and will likely contribute 20 cm to sea level rise before 2100. On the highest emissions pathway the ice sheet could melt by the year 3000, submerging coasts by 7.2 meters. Greenland surface melt now dominates cryospheric mass loss. To constrain the driving processes of this melt, here we present high-fidelity surface observations of [...]
An unprecedented Mediterranean tropical cyclogenesis attempt above extreme sea surface temperatures?
Published: 2026-11-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
On 3-4 October 2026, a strong and organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over the Balearic Sea in the Western Mediterranean, and produced torrential rainfall in the Barcelona area, with up to 248 mm at Granollers (230 mm in 8 hours; 65 mm in an hour). The event occurred without discernible large-scale forcing from an upper-level cut-off low or trough, while western Mediterranean [...]
Conditional reliability of gridded rainfall datasets in Nigeria
Published: 2026-10-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Gridded rainfall datasets support Nigerian research and climate services, but published agreement depends on the rainfall property, release and validation design. This critical narrative review audits 18 Nigerian gauge-reference evaluations and two contextual comparator studies. The core register contains five complete-text, five passage-only and eight abstract-only records. An archived [...]
Hotspots of Efficient Large-scale Circulation Response to Idealized Diabatic Heating
Published: 2026-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Soil moisture anomalies can influence large-scale atmospheric circulation and thereby affect remote regions. However, the seasonal and geographical dependence of these circulation responses has been largely unexplored. Here, we conduct idealized experiments with a Linear Baroclinic Model, imposing identical low-level diabatic heating anomalies across global land to examine atmospheric circulation [...]
Droughts are dominated by anomalous circulation not anomalous atmospheric moisture content
Published: 2026-10-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Agricultural drought is a sustained soil moisture deficit caused by reduced net moisture flux to the land surface. We show that agricultural droughts can occur when the atmosphere is anomalously wet, challenging the assumption that surface drying reflects atmospheric moisture deficits. Precipitation declines during drought even under increased atmospheric moisture, indicating low precipitation [...]
Sampling Uncertainty is Critical for Setting Forecast-Based Anticipatory Action Triggers
Published: 2026-10-28
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Risk Analysis
As of 2022, nearly 5 million smallholder farmers across more than a dozen countries are covered by Anticipatory Action (AA) programs. AA programs are aid schemes triggered when seasonal forecasts of precipitation fall below a locally-determined drought threshold. These thresholds are generally calculated to meet a donor- or government-specified expected trigger frequency. However, the [...]
Historical distribution of managed honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera) in 18th-century Spain: A standardized dataset (v1: Cáceres)
Published: 2026-10-27
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies, Nature and Society Relations
This data descriptor presents a standardized, geographically harmonized dataset of managed honeybee (Apis mellifera) colonies in the current province of Cáceres (Spain) during the mid-18th century (1750–1754). Data was extracted from the Ensenada Cadastre primary manuscript sources. The dataset encompasses 207 Local Administrative Units (LAU) and records a minimum threshold of 165,387 managed [...]
Detecting Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions Using Deep Learning and TEMPO Satellite Imagery
Published: 2026-10-25
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
NASA's Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument provides hourly daytime observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) across North America. These observations could support independent, facility-level monitoring of power plant nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, filling gaps when continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) measurements fail or facilities are not [...]
Random-split validation overstates the skill of machine-learning models of global coral bleaching severity
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Marine Biology, Oceanography, Statistical Methodology
Global compilations of coral bleaching surveys are increasingly used to train machine-learning models of bleaching severity, but such models are often evaluated with random train–test splits that ignore duplicated records, spatial dependence and differences among contributing survey programmes. We re-examined an earlier analysis of the Global Coral Bleaching Database (BCO-DMO dataset 773466) that [...]
Robust warming rates, marginal evidence of acceleration and unstable extrapolation: a reproducible reanalysis of statistical trend models for the Berkeley Earth global temperature record
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Statistical Models
Simple trend fits to the global temperature record are widely used to summarise warming, but their uncertainty, their evidence for acceleration and their predictive value are often overstated. We re-analysed an earlier linear and quadratic analysis of the Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean record (1850–2024) that reported in-sample R² values of 0.74 and 0.90 and a post-1970 warming rate of 0.194 °C per [...]
Ecosystem community structure shapes carbon dynamics in the ocean
Published: 2026-10-20
Subjects: Climate, Marine Biology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding how marine ecosystems influence air–sea CO2 flux under climate change remains a major uncertainty in ocean carbon-cycle projections. Progress is hampered by insufficient representation of ecosystem complexity in climate models and insufficient observations for developing and calibrating complex marine ecosystem models. We present a novel three-branch ensemble of the PlankTOM12 [...]
Deteriorating climate conditions for Australian wheat production
Published: 2026-10-14
Subjects: Climate
Wheat yields are highly sensitive to climate extremes, but previous studies risk underestimating their influence due to a reliance on highly aggregated agricultural data. Here we combine nationwide farm-level agricultural data with machine learning to identify the key drivers of Australian wheat yield and assess how climate conditions for wheat production have changed over recent decades. We find [...]