Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Spatial Patterns of Urban Heat Islands and Green Space Cooling Effects in the Urban Microclimate of Karachi

Aly Muhammad Gajani

Published: 2024-05-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability

With rapid urbanization and the increasing threats of climate change, metropolitan cities like Karachi, Pakistan, are encountering greater challenges due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. Understanding the cooling potential of urban green spaces (UGS) is crucial for mitigating heat stress and enhancing urban resilience. This study aims to analyze the thermal dynamics and cooling efficacy [...]

The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models

Julius Busecke, Dhruv Balwada, Paige Martin`, et al.

Published: 2024-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography

Understanding air-sea interaction is crucial for our ability to predict future states of the climate system, and to inform economic and societal decision-making. However, the representation of air-sea interactions in climate models is limited by structural errors associated with model resolution. Coarse-resolution climate models do not resolve small-scale structures in the air-sea state, which, [...]

Global Warming is Industrially Suppressed Middle-School Science

Ferren MacIntyre

Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The 15\% of the American public that denies global warming probably used middle-school science texts in which the topic was omitted at the behest of Big Oil. We attempt to remedy this with a simple explanation of the process, in which the 33°C difference between the Stefan-Bolzmann astrophysical -18°C temperature of the solar-heated planet and the Weather Bureau's comfortable 15°C sea-level [...]

Carcass locations implicate cyanobacterial toxicity in a mass elephant mortality event in Botswana

Davide Lomeo, Emma Tebbs, Nlingisisi Dombole Babayani, et al.

Published: 2024-05-07
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology

The 2020 mass mortality of 350 African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Botswana sparked global concern. These deaths have been linked to cyanobacterial toxins (cyanotoxins) in local watering holes (pans), but evidence remains inconclusive. Our study presents the first detailed spatial analysis that explores the relationship between the ecohydrology of 3,389 regional pans with the locations of [...]

Advancing forest aboveground biomass mapping by integrating GEDI with other Earth Observation data using a cloud computing platform: A case study of Alabama, United States

Janaki Sandamali, Lana Narine

Published: 2024-04-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a crucial indicator for monitoring carbon and requires accurate quantification. This study aimed to advance AGB estimation using open access Earth observation (EO) data and cloud computing, focusing on Alabama, USA. The specific objectives were to: (1) develop a workflow for creating a 30 m forest AGBD map with GEDI, using GEE, (2) evaluate and compare [...]

Improving Urban Climate Adaptation Modelling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Through Transient Urban Surface Albedo Representation

Yuan Sun, Bowen Fang, Keith W Oleson, et al.

Published: 2024-04-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil Engineering, Climate, Computational Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences

Increasing the albedo of urban surfaces, through strategies like white roof installations, has emerged as a promising approach for urban climate adaptation. Yet, modelling these strategies on a large scale is limited by the use of static urban surface albedo representations in the Earth system models. In this study, we developed a new transient urban surface albedo scheme in the Community Earth [...]

Problems with Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analyses of U.S. LNG Exports and Locally Produced Coal

Robert L Kleinberg

Published: 2024-04-01
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Oil, Gas, and Energy

Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States are growing rapidly, and the United States government must balance a multiplicity of interests in deciding to what extent the growth of LNG exports should be further encouraged. Its decisions must be consistent with the Natural Gas Act, which mandates that exports of natural gas be in the public interest. In the current administration, [...]

Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates

Simona Meiler, Chahan M. Kropf, Jamie W. McCaughey, et al.

Published: 2024-03-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment

Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve depending on climate change and socio-economic development, entailing significant uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risks is thus vital for robust decision-making and model improvement. However, the outcomes of such uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are tied to the chosen model setup, warranting caution [...]

Linking local climate scenarios to global warming levels: Applicability, prospects and uncertainties

Benedikt Becsi, Herbert Formayer

Published: 2024-03-08
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Global warming levels (GWLs) are increasingly becoming a central concept in climate change studies. In recent years, their integrative quality for climate change impact analysis has been demonstrated, and methodological advancements have helped to compensate for some inherent shortfalls of the concept. However, their applicability at the regional level is debatable, and no study to date has [...]

The Potential for Fuel Reduction to Offset Climate Warming Impacts on Wildfire Intensity in California

Patrick T Brown, Scott Strenfel, Richard B. Bagley, et al.

Published: 2024-02-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability

Increasing fuel aridity due to climate warming has and will continue to increase wildfire danger in California. In addition to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, one of the primary proposals for counteracting this increase in wildfire danger is a widespread expansion of hazardous fuel reductions. Here, we quantify the potential for fuel reduction to reduce wildfire intensity using [...]

Bad science and good intentions prevent effective climate action

Graeme MacDonald Taylor, Peter Wadhams, Daniele Visioni, et al.

Published: 2024-02-16
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology

Although the 2015 Paris Agreement climate targets seem certain to be missed, only a few experts are questioning the adequacy of the current approach to limiting climate change and suggesting that additional approaches are needed to avoid unacceptable catastrophes. This article posits that selective science communication and unrealistically optimistic assumptions are obscuring the reality that [...]

Multi-satellite data depicts record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

Luis Guanter, Javier Roger, Shubham Sharma, et al.

Published: 2024-02-13
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Oil, Gas, and Energy

Accidental blowouts in oil and gas wells can result in large and prolonged methane emissions, which are often unreported when happening in remote places. The rapid advancement of space-based methods for detecting and quantifying methane plumes provides an essential tool for uncovering these super-emission events. We use a range of methane-sensitive satellites to document a methane leak from a [...]

Impacts of global warming on hurricane-driven insurance losses in the United States

Francesco Comola, Bernhard Märtl, Hilary Paul, et al.

Published: 2024-02-07
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

North Atlantic hurricanes are a major driver of property losses in the United States and a critical peril for the insurance industry on a global scale. Despite the growing scientific consensus around the potential impacts of global warming on North Atlantic hurricanes, the implications for the insurance industry are still largely unquantified. We address this question by drawing on 70 years of [...]

Freshwater plume-like condition near the north-eastern coastal Arabian Sea during early Miocene: Evidence from the stable isotope record in the growth bands of gastropods (Turritella sp.)

Yogaraj Banerjee, Prosenjit Ghosh

Published: 2024-01-30
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

The Early Miocene witnessed major tectonic, palaeoceanographic and climatological reorganizations over the Asian realm. The Himalayan and Tibetan plateau upliftment influenced monsoon intensity during this age. Contemporary high-resolution tropical hydroclimate records are limited. Here, we present an early Miocene sub-annual stable isotope record from the growth bands of well-preserved [...]

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Claire Marie Zarakas, Daniel Kennedy, Katherine Dagon, et al.

Published: 2024-01-23
Subjects: Climate

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a [...]

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