Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Long-term future Greenland ice loss determined by peak global warming
Published: 2026-04-28
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Glaciology
The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is known to be very sensitive to climate change, and persistent global warming only slightly higher than today could be enough to completely melt it. However, the implications of a temporary crossing of this temperature threshold for future GrIS mass loss remain unknown. Here we present simulations of the next 10,000 years under different future anthropogenic [...]
Scale-dependent controls on forest carbon uptake across hydroclimatic extremes
Published: 2026-04-28
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Sciences, Sustainability
Conifer forests span some of the most climatically contrasting environments on Earth, from energy-limited Boreal systems to water-limited semi-arid ecosystems. Whether their carbon uptake is governed by universal drivers or by site-specific boundary conditions remains unresolved. Using more than two decades of eddy-covariance and multi-depth soil moisture measurements from two climatic [...]
Exploratory MPAS Sensitivity Experiments on Rainforest Biogenic Salt Aerosols, Tropical Rainfall, and Poleward Moisture Transport
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Planetary Hydrology
Rainforest ecosystems emit biologically influenced aerosol particles, including potassium-rich and other hygroscopic components that may affect warm-rain microphysics. While tropical biogenic aerosols have been studied extensively, their sensitivity within coarse-resolution global models remains incompletely characterized, particularly under differing background aerosol states. Here we present [...]
Assessing Causality in PM2.5 and NO2 Changes One Year After New York City’s Congestion Pricing Policy
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences
On January 5, 2025, New York City implemented the Central Business District Tolling Program (CBDTP), a congestion pricing policy targeting lower Manhattan. We evaluate its air quality effects after one year using ground-based and satellite observations. Using New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS) real-time PM2.5 monitors, we compare PM2.5 concentrations during the first year of CBDTP [...]
Xerokampos Evidence for a localized hot desert microclimate enclave
Published: 2026-04-21
Subjects: Climate
This study investigates the spatial precipitation distribution and microclimatic characteristics of the coastal enclave of Xerokampos, Lasithi in Greece. Utilizing a local meteorological time series (2020-2026), the mean annual precipitation (MAP) is recorded at 219.5 mm, alongside a mean annual temperature of 20.9°C. To contextualize these limited contemporary observations, a synthetic climate [...]
Before the Threshold: Deceptive Stability, Buffer Slack, and Earth System Transitions
Published: 2026-04-20
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Other Environmental Sciences
Earth history includes episodes in which biological or geophysical processes generate persistent byproduct loads whose early effects are partially masked by environmental sinks and buffering pathways. This paper synthesizes established literatures on Earth system revolutions, redox transitions, mass extinctions, and Anthropocene change into an explicit phase grammar termed Buffered Byproduct [...]
Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification
Published: 2026-04-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less [...]
Reconstructing Land Surface Temperature for Cloud-Covered Regions: A Review of Methods
Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Climate, Other Earth Sciences
Understanding surface thermal conditions is essential for studying ecosystem responses, hydrological processes, and climate-driven environmental change. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key parameter for studying a wide range of environmental and climatic processes. Although remote sensing technologies enable the acquisition of LST data on a global scale, satellite observations are frequently [...]
Spatiotemporal evolution of temperature extremes across India’s agro-climatic zones (1951–2025)
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography
Long-term changes in temperature extremes are a robust signature of anthropogenic climate change, yet their spatial structure across India’s agro-climatic zones (ACZs) remains insufficiently resolved at policy scales. Here, we quantify changes in temperature extremes across 14 mainland ACZs during 1951–2025 using the India Meteorological Department 1°×1° gridded daily dataset. We compute 22 [...]
Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes arises not only from physical processes but also from societal responses to climate variability and change. Here we embed a range of temperature anomalies into an empirically-informed, coupled climate–social model to investigate how natural temperature variability shapes global emissions trajectories. Using Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, [...]
Introducing Microalgae Carbon Fixation and Sinking (MCFS): a new approach for controlled and scalable CDR
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Oceanography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Achieving global climate targets requires scalable and durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to tackle both historical and hard-to- abate emissions. We introduce Microalgae Carbon Fixation and Sinking (MCFS), a marine CDR methodology designed to enhance carbon fixation and export to the deep ocean through a controlled process. At the core of the MCFS approach is a tailored substrate: [...]
A new diagnostic of air-sea interaction reveals ocean control of turbulent heat flux in the South Asian Summer Monsoon
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography
Air-sea interaction plays a central role in the South Asian summer monsoon, with processes such as surface turbulent heat fluxes, upper ocean mechanical mixing, surface buoyancy forcing, and surface moisture fluxes providing bridges between the ocean and atmosphere. The air-sea heat flux responds to internal variability in the ocean and atmosphere, as well as feedbacks arising from their [...]
City-level temperature reduction from street green space by city typology and climate zone
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Climate, Human Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Spatial Science
Vegetation in the street can lower temperatures at neighbourhood level and reduce heat stress for pedestrians. Street green spaces (SGS) is thus an urgently needed nature-based solution for adapting to a warming climate, and also has some ability for carbon uptake. This local solution has global potential, but the cooling potential of street green space depends on local context, urban form and [...]
The Oceanic Response to Winds in the Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at the end of the 1970s
Published: 2026-03-28
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The sea ice extent (SIE) in the Southern Ocean experienced a substantial decline in the late 1970s, although less pronounced than the one observed in 2016. Though several studies explain the decline since 2016, the 1970s drop is critical in understanding the long-term variability of SIE. To investigate the underlying mechanisms for this decline, we conducted wind stress-forced multi- ensemble [...]
Beyond efficiency: Sufficiency unlocks deep decarbonization of U.S. residential sector
Published: 2026-03-16
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Decarbonization strategies in the residential sector have largely focused on lowering the carbon intensity of energy supply and improving end-use efficiency. Sufficiency, defined as avoiding unnecessary energy demand while maintaining well-being, remains largely unquantified in national energy system analyses. We quantify how structural sufficiency (dwelling size and housing form) and behavioral [...]