Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Scalable and robust Gaussian processes for reanalysis of urban air temperature with crowdsourced meteorological data
Published: 2025-10-22
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Statistical Models
Crowdsourced air temperature data from networks like Weather Underground offer dense spatial coverage and are increasingly used to study the canopy urban heat island (CUHI) effect. However, these observations are noisy: siting conditions, environmental interference, and sensor failures introduce spatially and temporally varying bias. This complicates interpolation, limiting our ability to [...]
Hazomes: Earth’s natural multi-hazard terrestrial disturbance regimes
Published: 2025-10-22
Subjects: Climate, Other Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Planetary Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Spatial Science, Sustainability
Ecosystems and societies have evolved together and are shaped by local natural hazard regimes. We introduce hazomes, an Earth classification based on multi‑hazard disturbance patterns. By combining open‑source intensity and return period data for eight hazard types, we identify thousands of distinct terrestrial disturbance regimes. Hazomes aims to deepen insight into ecosystem and societal [...]
Statistical Characterization of LGM and Late Holocene Oceanography in the Indonesian Maritime Continent
Published: 2025-10-19
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Oceanography
This study provides a statistical characterization of surface oceanography in the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 23–19 ka) and Late Holocene (LH; 4–0 ka). Using the lgmDA v2.1 paleoclimate data assimilation product, we analyze sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and seawater $\delta^{18}$O. Results indicate the LGM was [...]
Evaluating Urban Heat Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heatwaves in Complex Terrain: A Case Study of Grenoble, France
Published: 2025-10-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physics
Urban heat adaptation strategies are critical for mitigating the impacts of ex- treme heat events in cities, particularly as climate change exacerbates their intensity and frequency. This study evaluates a set of adaptation strategies during the 2023 heatwave in Grenoble, France, using the WRF model with the BEP+BEM urban canopy scheme. Eight scenarios are simulated, including increased [...]
Radiogenic Sr-Nd-Pb isotope behavior in different grain-sized fine lithic materials during basalt weathering
Published: 2025-10-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Radiogenic isotopes are widely used as sediment provenance tracers; however, their weathering response has not been fully established. This study investigates the weathering sensitivity of Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes in fine lithic fractions (FLF; grain size <2 μm, <5 μm, and <20 μm) capable of long-range transport. Geochemical and isotope compositions have been measured in the physicochemically [...]
Mitigation of Ultraviolet Solar Radiation Involving Calcite (MUSIC)
Published: 2025-10-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Health and Protection
This investigation explores the use of calcite (CaCO3) powder, the most common and radiation-resistant form of calcium carbonate, as an environmentally friendly mechanism for solar radiation management by measuring its ability to deflect ultraviolet radiation from the sun. The experiment took place on a high-altitude balloon (HAB) payload. Three sets of laminated calcite sheets with varying [...]
Global Biosphere Productivity Response to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapse During Heinrich Stadial 4
Published: 2025-10-11
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate
The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to ongoing climate change raises concerns about its impact on the global carbon cycle. Understanding how global biosphere productivity may respond to such changes is essential for predicting the future carbon cycle, yet quantifying past global biosphere productivity remains challenging. We use triple isotope composition of [...]
Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming
Published: 2025-10-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Abstract: Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth's climate sensitivity. However, differences between past and present climate change must be accounted for when inferring climate sensitivity from paleoclimate evidence. The closest paleoclimate analog to near-term warming from greenhouse-gas [...]
Machine learning predictions of summertime warming jumps on decadal timescales
Published: 2025-09-28
Subjects: Climate
Extreme events are responsible for some of the most severe impacts of climate change, but regional extreme event prediction remains a challenge as the events contain a large amount of stochasticity. Here we demonstrate an approach for predicting future summertime temperature extremes on decadal timescales by first identifying an abrupt jump in average summertime temperature as a covariate of [...]
Paleoecology indicates wave climate as key factor in coral reef development
Published: 2025-09-23
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Stratigraphy
The Last Interglacial (~125,000 years ago) experienced global temperatures warmer than today, making it a natural analog for future climate scenarios. Contemporary coral reefs preserve ecological signals that offer valuable insights into past climate dynamics. Here, we examine the fossil reefs of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao to reconstruct wind and wave conditions during this period. While modern [...]
Understanding and addressing temperature impacts on mortality
Published: 2025-09-20
Subjects: Climate, Natural Resource Economics
A large literature documents how ambient temperature affects human mortality. Using decades of detailed data from 30 countries, we revisit and synthesize key findings from this literature. We confirm that ambient temperature is among the largest external threats to human health, and is responsible for a remarkable 5-12% of total deaths across countries in our sample, or hundreds of thousands of [...]
Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events
Published: 2025-09-06
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate
As the climate warms, interacting weather extremes such as sequential heat events pose complex risks to societies. Regarding global agriculture, laboratory experiments suggest that early crop exposure to heat may either confer tolerance or enhance vulnerability to subsequent heat during the critical crop flowering stage. We show that warm early-seasons improve crop yield potential, particularly [...]
DCENT-I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset
Published: 2025-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography
A spatially infilled Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of surface Temperature (DCENT-I) has been created by infilling land-air and sea-surface temperatures from DCENT using ordinary kriging with anisotropic and heterogeneous kernels. By incorporating air-temperature anomalies over sea-ice areas, DCENT-I provides spatially complete monthly temperature fields at 5° resolution from 1850 to the present [...]
High-Resolution Simulation of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Grenoble During the 2018 Heatwave: Evaluating WRF Model Configurations
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
This study investigates the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Grenoble, France, during the August 2018 heatwave, using high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations at 111 meters. The objective is to evaluate at this resolution the capac- ity of different WRF urban parameterizations such as the Building Effect Parameterization (BEP) and Building Energy Model (BEM), to [...]
The Grand Challenges of WPI-AIMEC: Executive Summary
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biology, Climate, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Marine Biology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Remote Sensing, Sustainability
The ocean has a heat capacity 1,000 times greater than that of the atmosphere and stores 50 times more carbon comparatively, thus, constituting a major sink of anthropogenically released greenhouse gases. Warming effects of human activities on the climate system are now undeniably shown to impact marine life and ecosystems, both directly via warming of the ocean and/or indirectly altering ocean [...]