Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
DCENT-I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset
Published: 2025-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography
A spatially infilled Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of surface Temperature (DCENT-I) has been created by infilling land-air and sea-surface temperatures from DCENT using ordinary kriging with anisotropic and heterogeneous kernels. By incorporating air-temperature anomalies over sea-ice areas, DCENT-I provides spatially complete monthly temperature fields at 5° resolution from 1850 to the present [...]
High-Resolution Simulation of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Grenoble During the 2018 Heatwave: Evaluating WRF Model Configurations
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fluid Dynamics, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
This study investigates the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Grenoble, France, during the August 2018 heatwave, using high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations at 111 meters. The objective is to evaluate at this resolution the capac- ity of different WRF urban parameterizations such as the Building Effect Parameterization (BEP) and Building Energy Model (BEM), to [...]
The Grand Challenges of WPI-AIMEC: Executive Summary
Published: 2025-08-21
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biology, Climate, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Marine Biology, Nature and Society Relations, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Biogeochemistry, Remote Sensing, Sustainability
The ocean has a heat capacity 1,000 times greater than that of the atmosphere and stores 50 times more carbon comparatively, thus, constituting a major sink of anthropogenically released greenhouse gases. Warming effects of human activities on the climate system are now undeniably shown to impact marine life and ecosystems, both directly via warming of the ocean and/or indirectly altering ocean [...]
Low-cost autonomous chambers enable high spatial and temporal resolution monitoring of soil CO₂ exchange across landscapes
Published: 2025-08-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Meteorology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Soil Science, Sustainability, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
1. Soil CO₂ flux is a critical component of ecosystem carbon cycling, but due to high cost and mechanistic constraints, existing measurement systems are often limited by trade-offs between resolution (temporal and spatial), and spatial coverage. These constraints hinder efforts to monitor soil fluxes across diverse, heterogeneous landscapes and environmental gradients. 2. We developed Fluxbot [...]
Consecutive Dry Days as a Scale-Dependent Predictor of Tropical Peatland Fire Occurrence in Indonesia
Published: 2025-08-12
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Meteorology
Tropical peatland fires in Indonesia generate severe environmental, health, and economic impacts, yet current fire prediction systems exhibit scale-dependent limitations. This study investigates the relationship between Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) indices and fire occurrence across multiple spatial scales in South Sumatra and West Kalimantan provinces (2015-2019). Using hierarchical buffer [...]
Robust networks of rainfall extremes emerge despite fragile ocean monsoon causality under Internal variability
Published: 2025-08-02
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography
Climate ready multi sectoral risk management relies on understanding not only where extreme rainfall occurs but also how such events synchronize across regions and interact with internal climate modes. The stability of synchronized rainfall networks and remote climate forcings under internal climate variability (ICV), especially when aggregating ensemble simulations for statistical robustness, [...]
The Indispensable Role of Weather Data in Consumer Spending Prediction: A Robust Machine Learning Assessment
Published: 2025-07-31
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
Accurate forecasting of daily consumer spending is crucial for strategic decision-making in the retail sector, yet the dynamic influence of weather is often underestimated or insufficiently integrated into predictive models. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of incorporating both historical and 7-day weather forecast data on predicting consumer spending amounts across three diverse [...]
Future Sea Ice-Ocean and Biological Productivity Changes in the North Water Polynya Region under Policy Relevant Warming Levels
Published: 2025-07-30
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the most productive biological regions in the Arctic with high importance to Inuit and local communities of Nunavut and Greenland. To provide insights into the potential changes of this region as global temperatures rise, we investigated the sea ice, and physical and biological oceanic responses of the NOW to low (2 °C) and high (3.5 °C) levels of warming [...]
Household climate adaptations reflect patterning in climate events
Published: 2025-07-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing
It is well-documented that households respond to climate events with climate adaptations, risk-management strategies like livelihood diversification, migration, or remittances – sending money and goods across distances. However, the focus is largely on responses to single climate events, while suggestive evidence indicates that temporal and spatial patterns across multiple events – including [...]
The Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation is a Quasi-Semiannual, Propagating Disturbance
Published: 2025-07-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a well-studied mode of regional climate variability, associated with fluctuations in sea-level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, and the North Atlantic jet. These fluctuations have been perceived as a seesawing between two climatic phases, one corresponding to a more poleward jet and the other to a more equatorward. However, recent work has shown that zonal [...]
Topological and Information-Theoretic Analysis of Climate-Driven Indonesian Throughflow Dynamics
Published: 2025-06-29
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Climate, Non-linear Dynamics, Oceanography
The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) represents the sole tropical pathway connecting Pacific and Indian Oceans, yet quantitative understanding of climate mode influences on its variability remains incomplete. We applied information-theoretic and topological frameworks to analyze 34 years (1984-2017) of observational ITF transport data alongside ENSO and IOD indices. Bootstrap analysis revealed [...]
Assessing Climate and Watershed Controls on Rain-on-Snow Runoff Using XGBoost-SHAP Explainable AI (XAI)
Published: 2025-06-27
Subjects: Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Water Resource Management
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events significantly impact hydrological processes in snowy regions, yet their seasonal drivers remain poorly understood, particularly in low-elevation and low-gradient catchments. This study uses an XGBoost-SHAP explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model to analyze meteorological and watershed controls on ROS runoff in the Great Lakes Basin. We used daily discharge, [...]
Food security beyond borders: how crop imports affect drought risk of conflict-affected countries
Published: 2025-06-25
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability
Drought events can disrupt food security and increase the risk of violent conflicts. In an interconnected global food system, countries rely on both local food production and imports to meet domestic demand. When assessing the impact of drought risk on national food security, however, imported crops are often overlooked. This study incorporates international crop trade information to understand [...]
Mapping textures of polar ice cores using 3D laboratory X-ray microscopy
Published: 2025-06-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Glaciology
Deep ice cores from polar ice sheets enable reconstructions of Earth’s past climate. Ice-core records are therefore crucial for projecting future climate change, however, our ability to interpret them relies on our understanding of polycrystalline-ice microstructures and mechanics. In turn, these microstructures enable modeling of ice flow and large-scale effects of ice-sheet evolution. Since [...]
Strengthening ITF and Weakening AMOC: Time Series Evidence of Trends and Causal Pathways to Agulhas Variability
Published: 2025-06-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Oceanography, Statistical Models
Multi-decadal observations of major ocean circulation systems reveal contrasting trends and complex inter-basin connectivity patterns that challenge traditional conceptualizations of global ocean circulation. Using non-parametric trend analysis, multi-method causality testing, and wavelet coherence techniques, we analyzed volume transport time series spanning 1984--2023 for the Indonesian [...]