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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

The Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation is a Quasi-Semiannual, Propagating Disturbance

Samuel Smith, Jian Lu, Paul W Staten

Published: 2025-07-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a well-studied mode of regional climate variability, associated with fluctuations in sea-level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, and the North Atlantic jet. These fluctuations have been perceived as a seesawing between two climatic phases, one corresponding to a more poleward jet and the other to a more equatorward. However, recent work has shown that zonal [...]

Topological and Information-Theoretic Analysis of Climate-Driven Indonesian Throughflow Dynamics

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Katarina Evelyn Permata Herho, Iwan Pramesti Anwar, et al.

Published: 2025-06-29
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Climate, Non-linear Dynamics, Oceanography

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) represents the sole tropical pathway connecting Pacific and Indian Oceans, yet quantitative understanding of climate mode influences on its variability remains incomplete. We applied information-theoretic and topological frameworks to analyze 34 years (1984-2017) of observational ITF transport data alongside ENSO and IOD indices. Bootstrap analysis revealed [...]

Assessing Climate and Watershed Controls on Rain-on-Snow Runoff Using XGBoost-SHAP Explainable AI (XAI)

Yog Aryal

Published: 2025-06-28
Subjects: Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Water Resource Management

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events significantly impact hydrological processes in snowy regions, yet their seasonal drivers remain poorly understood, particularly in low-elevation and low-gradient catchments. This study uses an XGBoost-SHAP explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model to analyze meteorological and watershed controls on ROS runoff in the Great Lakes Basin.  We used daily discharge, [...]

Food security beyond borders: how crop imports affect drought risk of conflict-affected countries

Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Raed Hamed, Rick J Hogeboom, et al.

Published: 2025-06-25
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Sustainability

Drought events can disrupt food security and increase the risk of violent conflicts. In an interconnected global food system, countries rely on both local food production and imports to meet domestic demand. When assessing the impact of drought risk on national food security, however, imported crops are often overlooked. This study incorporates international crop trade information to understand [...]

Mapping textures of polar ice cores using 3D laboratory X-ray microscopy

Olivia Barbee, Jette Oddershede, Ravi Raj Purohit Purushottam Raj Purohit, et al.

Published: 2025-06-21
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Glaciology

Deep ice cores from polar ice sheets enable reconstructions of Earth’s past climate. Ice-core records are therefore crucial for projecting future climate change, however, our ability to interpret them relies on our understanding of polycrystalline-ice microstructures and mechanics. In turn, these microstructures enable modeling of ice flow and large-scale effects of ice-sheet evolution. Since [...]

Strengthening ITF and Weakening AMOC: Time Series Evidence of Trends and Causal Pathways to Agulhas Variability

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Katarina Evelyn Permata Herho, Iwan Pramesti Anwar, et al.

Published: 2025-06-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Oceanography, Statistical Models

Multi-decadal observations of major ocean circulation systems reveal contrasting trends and complex inter-basin connectivity patterns that challenge traditional conceptualizations of global ocean circulation. Using non-parametric trend analysis, multi-method causality testing, and wavelet coherence techniques, we analyzed volume transport time series spanning 1984--2023 for the Indonesian [...]

The spatio-temporal variability, trends, and drivers of winter Arctic polynyas

Carmen Hau Man Wong, Céline Heuzé, Luisa Ickes, et al.

Published: 2025-06-06
Subjects: Climate

Polynyas, thin-ice or open water regions within the sea ice, have regularly been observed in the Arctic since satellite observations began in the 1970s. Their opening, in response to complex interactions between several drivers, significantly influences the regional weather and climate, ecosystem, and the global ocean. Yet their monitoring at the pan-Arctic scale is rare since their detection is [...]

High-Resolution Methane Detection with the GHGSat Constellation

Antoine Ramier, Marianne Girard, Dylan Jervis, et al.

Published: 2025-05-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring

GHGSat operates a constellation of small satellites designed to detect and quantify methane emissions with high sensitivity compared with existing satellite technologies. An important feature of GHGSat measurements is the high spatial resolution (~25m), which enables attribution of emissions to specific facilities and subsequent corrective action from the operator. The GHGSat constellation [...]

The Interplay of Vegetation and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Flash Drought Prediction

Mahmoud Osman, Benjamin Zaitchik, Patricia Lawston-Parker, et al.

Published: 2025-05-13
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring

Flash droughts, known for their rapid onset and intensification, pose a significant threat to agriculture and water resources. The 2011 Texas flash drought, with its widespread agricultural losses exceeding $7.6 billion and severe ecological consequences, was a stark demonstration of their devastating impacts. This study investigates the crucial role of vegetation in numerical modeling of flash [...]

A SCALABLE MACHINE LEARNING MODELLING TOOL FOR MAPPING LANDSLIDE RUNOUT USING A CASE STUDY IN HAWKES BAY, NEW ZEALAND

Alex Stokes

Published: 2025-05-02
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geotechnical Engineering, Other Statistics and Probability

Understanding landslide runout is crucial for land use planning, utility networks, and assessing infrastructure resilience on slopes. Recent guidance recommends incorporating landslide runout models along with climate change implications when assessing land for development. The advancement of machine learning (ML) techniques can offer new insights and a tool to be used alongside current methods. [...]

Evolution of the Climate as an Attributable Complex System with Main Cause

Liaofu Luo, Jun Lv

Published: 2025-04-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Attributable complex systems can be classified into two categories: those with a main cause and those without. The climate is an attributable complex system with a main cause, where CO2 concentration serves as the primary fingerprint. The essential dynamics of climate change can be effectively captured through the representation of CO2 concentration. In this study, we analyze global warming in [...]

Heatwave Characteristics in Different Ecosystems across Türkiye: Historical and Future Insights from CMIP6 Simulations

Serhan Yeşilköy

Published: 2025-04-19
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology

Heatwaves pose significant threats to diverse sectors, including agriculture and forestry. This extreme weather event is characterized by prolonged periods of exceptionally high air temperatures and has caused substantial economic damage and affecting millions. During heatwave events, agricultural and forest lands are affected by intensified thermal stress and water scarcity, impacting plant [...]

A realistic climate strategy

Graeme MacDonald Taylor, Peter Wadhams, Tom Goreau, et al.

Published: 2025-04-12
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability

The international climate strategy is failing. Current policies will act too slowly to prevent rising temperatures from crossing critical climate tipping points. IPCC assessments underestimate the non-linear risks and catastrophic costs of overshooting Paris Agreement targets. Opponents of solar geoengineering cite concerns about moral hazard and other potential risks; however, at this juncture [...]

Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the Rapid Impact Model Emulator (RIME)

Edward Byers, Michaela Werning, Mahe Perette, et al.

Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Climate model emulation has long been applied to assess the global climate outcomes of integrated assessment model (IAM)IAM emissions scenarios, but is typically limited to first-order climate variables like mean surface air temperatures at minimal limited regional resolution. Here we introduce RIME, the Rapid Impact Model Emulator, which uses global warming level interpolation approaches based [...]

Weakening of AMOC linked to past Greenland Ice Sheet retreat

Daniel Parkes, David J. Thornalley, Erin McClymont, et al.

Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to occur under multiple scenarios of future warming. However, the effect of meltwater from a decaying Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on AMOC is uncertain. Using a basin-wide network of North Atlantic sediment cores, we show that the largescale melting of the GrIS during a previous interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c [...]

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