Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Climate
Deglacial reconstruction of the spatial extent and intensity of the North Atlantic Subtropical High
Published: 2026-06-13
Subjects: Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rainfall-related hazards are growing in southeastern North America (SENA) but well-documented climate-model biases cast doubt on projected rainfall changes. The North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) supplies the moisture that drives extreme rainfall in SENA, so reconstructing its past behavior offers a test of model fidelity. Using the hydrogen-isotope composition of leaf-wax biomarkers (δDwax) [...]
A scoping review to map research gaps and opportunities relating to heat-related health hazards in countries surrounding Lake Victoria, Africa.
Published: 2026-06-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Public Health, Physical and Environmental Geography, Sustainability
Urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa are at rising risks of climate-related health hazards due to global climate change and uncontrolled rapid urbanization. Despite the increasing recognition of these challenges, the extent to which urban climates impact health outcomes in Africa remains poorly understood. East African countries surrounding the Lake Victoria Basin (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, [...]
Novel Data-driven High-Frequency Mass Change Models from GRACE orbit residuals
Published: 2026-06-11
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Glaciology, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a fully data-driven framework for transforming residual K-band range-rate (KBRR) data from GRACE into 5-day mass change models expressed in Equivalent Water Height (EWH). The approach first derives residual range and Line-of-Sight Gravity Differences (LGDs) from monthly post-fit residual range-rates and combines them with 5-day post-fit residuals. A hybrid formulation, merging LGD- and [...]
Dress Rehearsal: 2023 El Niño Anticipatory Action Somalia, in the Shadow of 1997
Published: 2026-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography
In 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding driven by El Niño and a positiveIn 2023 Somalia saw the largest-ever scale of anticipatory action (AA) linked to a seasonal forecast. $24m was spent on preparedness and early response, based on forecasted flooding [...]
Simulations of Minnesota water budget components using the Soil-Water-Balance model, past (1981–2022) and future (2040–59 and 2080–99)
Published: 2026-06-08
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
This study presents historical estimates and future projections of net infiltration (potential recharge), actual evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, and related water budget components across Minnesota using the USGS Soil Water Balance model, version 2 (SWB). The model was calibrated to streamflow and actual ET observations from 2000–2022, achieving an overall r² of 0.973 with a standard [...]
Empirical constraints on the fraction of surface latent heat flux reaching the top of atmosphere as net radiative cooling
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology
The transfer fraction η, defined as the ratio of net cloud radiative effect at the top of atmosphere to surface latent heat flux (η = |CRE_net| / LE), is a fundamental coupling parameter linking surface hydrology to TOA radiation. Despite its relevance to cloud feedback and biophysical forcing, η has not been directly constrained by co-located observations at the spatial scales relevant to [...]
The three causal pathways of ENSO teleconnections to High Mountain Asia winter precipitation
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
High Mountain Asia (HMA), spanning from the Hindu Kush to the Tibetan Plateau, encompasses tropical and subtropical regions highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events and associated hazards. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant external climate modes that influence subseasonal to seasonal precipitation over HMA through various dynamical pathways. We hypothesize three [...]
ENSO Modulation of the Amazonian Low-Level Jet: More Moisture, Less Rain, and the Role of Land Surface Reception
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology
The Amazonian Low-Level Jet (ALLJ) carries moisture from the tropical Atlantic coast into the basin interior, sustaining wet-season convection. Here we analyze 45 years of ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2023), 44 years of CHIRPS precipitation (1981–2024), GRACE terrestrial water storage (2002–2025), and SMAP root-zone soil moisture (2015–2024) to determine how ENSO modulates this transport pathway and its [...]
Unequal weather exposure across teams and groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup: an event-based analysis using hourly reanalysis
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Human Geography
The connection between climate change and sports is evident, as sports contribute to environmental challenges, while climate change impacts the conditions for playing, organizing, and enjoying sports. In professional football, heat, humidity, rain, wind, and insufficient recovery time at night can influence player health, physical stress, and game performance. Evaluations of the 2026 FIFA World [...]
Marine Heatwaves Disrupt Phytoplankton Communities Through Trait-dependent Selection
Published: 2026-05-24
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Marine Biology
Phytoplankton communities, key regulators of marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle, are susceptible to sea surface temperature variability, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, their trait-dependent responses and the resulting compositional shifts during MHWs remain poorly understood. Here, using an advanced global ocean–biogeochemical model that resolves 310 phytoplankton trait [...]
Wildfire smoke offsets decades of progress in reducing ozone exposure across the United States
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences
Ground-level ozone (O3) pollution has declined in the U.S., yet the progress has stalled in recent years, coinciding with increasing wildfire smoke. Using ensemble machine learning models trained on surface observations, we develop a gridded daily smoke O3 dataset across the contiguous U.S. from 2006-2023. We estimate that wildfire smoke placed an additional 29 million people each year in areas [...]
Analysis of sub-regional climates in the European Alps based on the EEAR-Clim observational dataset
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
The European Alps exhibit a complex geomorphology and undergo the influences of different climate regimes, resulting in high spatial variability of climatic variables and their changes. To provide a detailed analysis of climate regions and climatic changes occurring at a sub-regional scale during the 1961-2020 period, we exploited an updated regionalization of the European Alps that benefits from [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
Lumped Thermal Impedance Modeling of Anthropogenic Global Warming of the Troposphere
Published: 2026-05-19
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Anthropogenic global warming has reached a level so high that it is now possible to an- alyze its dynamics and spatial variation. Spatially varying Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies [1] can be well described by exponential functions with increase rates that range from 2.1 to 3.7% per year, depending on the region. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed significantly more than the Southern [...]
Transformation of climatologically anomalous water masses
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Wederiveanovelanomalous water mass budget framework in which water masses are defined by bounds on tracer anomalies rather than absolute tracer values, extending Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory to ocean variability and extremes. The material derivative of tracer anomalies introduces three additional transformation terms absent from the standard WMT framework: advection of climatological [...]