Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Environmental Studies
The long-run welfare impact of hydrological extremes in sub-Saharan Africa
Published: 2022-03-25
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Hydrology
The economic impact of dry and wet spells is increasingly investigated, also relative to anthropogenic climate change. Combining high-resolution wealth estimates and long-run (1901-2018) hydrological records for nearly one million settlements , here we empirically estimate the long-run welfare impact of hydrological events in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To achieve causal identification, we adopt a [...]
Investment needs to achieve SDGs: an overview
Published: 2022-03-18
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Estimating the investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is key to mobilising the financial resources to achieve them. Despite an increasing body of research to estimate the capital and operational costs towards achieving various related SDG targets individually and collectively, an overview of the total estimated investment needs at the global [...]
Large-area mapping of active cropland and short-term fallows in smallholder landscapes using PlanetScope data
Published: 2022-03-17
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Cropland mapping in smallholder landscapes is challenged by complex and fragmented landscapes, labor-intensive and unmechanized land management causing high within-field variability, rapid dynamics in shifting cultivation systems, and substantial proportions of short-term fallows. To overcome these challenges, we here present a large-area mapping framework to identify active cropland and [...]
Acting on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) synergies and trade-offs requires policy-focused systems tools
Published: 2022-03-04
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Systems Engineering
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is contingent on managing complex interactions that create synergies and trade-offs between different goals. Given the importance of interactions, it is necessary to understand the system mechanisms underpinning them to provide insight into their non-linear behaviours such as side-effects, delay, and acceleration. Prominent methods of SDG [...]
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.
Published: 2022-02-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology
Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here we present a new feature of the climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA which allows to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins [...]
Analyzing the uncertainty of the CORINE Land Cover time series (1990-2018) for Spain
Published: 2022-02-09
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
CORINE Land Cover is one of the most relevant Land Use Cover (LUC) databases in Europe because of its degree of detail and long time series. Although some studies have assessed the uncertainty of the database for specific years and periods, no work has been found that analyses all the available CORINE time series (1990-2018). In this study, we analyze the uncertainties of the CORINE time series [...]
Structural uncertainty and uncertainty management in four common Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model software packages. A comparison
Published: 2022-02-09
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Other Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Research on the uncertainty of Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models is still limited. Through this paper, we aim to globally characterize the structural uncertainty of four common software packages (CA_Markov, Dinamica EGO, Land Change Modeler, Metronamica) and analyse the options that they offer for uncertainty management. The models have been compared qualitatively, based on their structures [...]
Setting up a Land Use Cover Change model application for Greater Sydney. Lessons learnt and challenges ahead
Published: 2022-02-09
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Other Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
This chapter presents a Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model application developed for Greater Sydney. It aims to help decision making in the context of the strategic and spatial planning of Greater Sydney. To this end, the model simulates the dynamics of industrial, low density residential and medium-high density residential areas at spatial resolution of 100x100 m. A series of three Land Use [...]
A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes
Published: 2022-01-01
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is motivating interest in certain farming practices that have the potential to reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon in soil. The related GHG emission (including N2O and CH4) and changes in soil carbon stock are defined here as “agricultural carbon outcomes”. Accurate quantification of agricultural carbon [...]
Wildfire Smoke Exposure Worsens Learning Outcomes
Published: 2021-12-08
Subjects: Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Statistical Models
Wildfires have increased in frequency and severity over the past two decades, threatening to undo substantial air quality improvements. We investigate the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on learning outcomes across the US using standardized test scores from 2009-2016 for nearly 11,700 school districts and satellite-derived estimates of daily smoke exposure. Relative to a school year with no [...]
Optimizing nature-based solutions by combining social equity, hydro-environmental performance, and economic costs through a novel Gini coefficient
Published: 2021-11-15
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Physical and Environmental Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Systems Engineering
A robust multi-functional framework for widespread planning of nature-based solutions (NBS) must incorporate components of social equity and hydro-environmental performance in a cost-effective manner. NBS systems address stormwater mitigation by increasing on-site infiltration and evaporation through enhanced greenspace while also improving various components of societal well-being, such as [...]
Flood Mitigation Data Analytics and Decision Support Framework: Iowa Middle Cedar Watershed Case Study
Published: 2021-10-23
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Risk Analysis
Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing billions of dollars in damage and threatening vulnerable communities worldwide. Although the impact of flooding can never be diminished, minimizing future losses is possible by taking structural or non-structural mitigation actions. Mitigation applications are often costly practices. However, they can be more feasible for long-term [...]
Tidal marsh resilience to sea level rise controlled by vertical accretion and landward migration under nature-based human adaptation scenarios
Published: 2021-10-15
Subjects: Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies, Geography, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Plant Sciences
Tidal marshes are not only lost to human disturbance but also face the threat of sea level rise (SLR). However, current earth system models used to estimate future changes in wetland extent omit wetland’s real responses to SLR without field observations. We synthesised global data on sediment accretion rate (SAR) and surface elevation change (SEC) for tidal marshes and developed a mathematical [...]
Systems-thinking for environmental policy coherence: Stakeholder knowledge, fuzzy logic, and causal reasoning
Published: 2021-10-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies
Environmental policies are often chosen according to physical characteristics that disregard the complex interactions between decision-makers, society, and nature. Environmental policy resistance has been identified as stemming from such complexities, yet we lack an understanding of how social and physical factors interrelate to inform policy design. The identification of synergies and trade-offs [...]
Exposures and behavioral responses to wildfire smoke
Published: 2021-10-11
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Statistical Models
The impacts of environmental change on human outcomes often depend on local exposures and behavioral responses that are challenging to observe with traditional administrative or sensor data. We show how data from private pollution sensors, cell phones, social media posts, and internet search activity yield new insights on exposures and behavioral responses during large wildfire smoke events [...]