Preprints
There are 6226 Preprints listed.
Prescribed burns as a tool to mitigate future wildfire smoke exposure: Lessons for states and rural environmental justice communities
Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Smoke from wildfires presents one of the greatest threats to air quality, public health, and ecosystems in the United States, especially in the West. Here we quantify the efficacy of prescribed burning as an intervention for mitigating smoke exposure downwind of wildfires across the West during the 2018 and 2020 fire seasons. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we [...]
Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models
Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global water models are increasingly used to understand the past, present, and future water cycle, but disagreements between models make model-based inferences uncertain. While there is empirical evidence of a number of large-scale hydrologic relationships, these relationships are rarely used for model evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models using functional relationships that capture [...]
A Web-based Analytical Urban Flood Damage and Loss Estimation Framework
Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Systems and Communications
Information and communication technology serves a crucial role in communicating flood risk and consequences to a broad range of stakeholders and facilitating mitigation decisions. While studies extensively utilize flood inundation maps for communicating flood risks, there is a need to integrate a broad spectrum of physical vulnerability parameters into risk estimates at various spatial scales. [...]
An interconnected palaeo-subglacial lake system in the central Barents Sea
Published: 2022-12-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Sedimentology
Drainage of meltwater beneath an ice sheet influences ice-flow dynamics. To better predict ice sheet behaviour, it is crucial to understand subglacial hydrological processes. Subglacial lakes are important components of the subglacial hydrological system, with many observed and predicted at the beds of contemporary and palaeo-ice sheets. The technical and logistical challenges of studying [...]
Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]
Benchmarking a two-way coupled coastal wave-current hydrodynamics model
Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Engineering
Wave-current interaction phenomena are often represented through coupled model frameworks in ocean modelling. However, the benchmarking of these models is scarce, revealing a substantial research challenge. We seek to address this through a selection of benchmark cases for coupled wave-current interaction modelling frameworks. This comprises a series of analytical and experimental test cases [...]
Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts, but whether economies recover from ENSO events and how anthropogenic changes to ENSO will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.1T and $5.7T in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 [...]
Constraining flow and sediment transport intermittency in the geological past
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantitative investigations of ancient rivers usually provide insights into either instantaneous or mean flow conditions. There is a critical gap between these timescales of investigation which reflects the intermittency of flow and sediment transport, and closing this gap is crucial to fully explore the dynamics and evolution of ancient fluvial landscapes. Here, we combine fluvial stratigraphic [...]
SWAT model-based quantification of the impact of land use change on sediment yield in the Fincha watershed, Ethiopia
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In recent years, Ethiopia is facing problems due to soil erosion, mainly because of the conversion of natural vegetation cover into cultivated land. Soil erosion is also affecting dam reservoirs, which are threatened by an increase in sediment yield entering the lake. The present study focuses on the Ethiopian Fincha watershed and takes advantage of the potentiality of SWAT, to investigate how [...]
Standardised indices to monitor energy droughts
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability
To mitigate the effects of climate change, energy systems are becoming increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources. Since these energy sources are typically dependent on the prevailing weather, renewable energy systems are susceptible to shortages during certain weather conditions. As renewable sources become larger contributors to the energy mix, the risks associated with these shortages, [...]
Laboratory validation of a new hydro-mechanical energy-based brittleness index model for hydraulic fracturing
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Mining Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Petroleum Engineering
Brittleness Index (BI) is a critical parameter characterising the deformation regime of geo-materials, covering the range from purely brittle (fractures) to ductile (plastic flow). A variety of BI models have been developed based on rock properties such as mineralogy, elastic parameters, or stress-strain data. However, very few of them are based on the deformation induced by hydro-mechanical [...]
The Paleozoic Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt: its geodynamic and tectonic interpretation based on Paleogeographic reconstructions
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the southwestern margin of the North Patagonian Massif there is a NW26 SE belt of igneous and metamorphic rocks defining a limit between the North Patagonian Massif and southern Patagonia (including the Deseado Massif), named the Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt (CPIMB). The objective of this paper is to better understand the geodynamic and tectonic processes that generated its [...]
Comment on "Estimates on the Frequency of Volcanic Eruptions on Venus" by Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022)
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Other Planetary Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences
Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022) estimated the frequency of volcanic eruptions on Venus by scaling the eruption frequency obtained from a database containing Earth data. In reproducing their study, I found that the estimated number of new and ongoing volcanic eruptions on Venus in a given year is approximately 42, instead of the previously reported 120 eruptions. This updated estimate of Byrne & [...]
Barometers behaving badly: Assessing the influence of analytical and experimental uncertainty on clinopyroxene thermobarometry calculations at crustal conditions
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Mineral Physics, Volcanology
The composition of clinopyroxene and Clinopyroxene-Liquid (Cpx-Liq) pairs are frequently used to calculate crystallization/equilibration pressures in igneous systems. While canonical uncertainties are often assigned to calculated pressures based on fits to calibration or test datasets, the sources of these uncertainties (and thus ways to reduce them) have not been rigorously assessed. We show [...]
The highly nonlinear viscosity of fast-flowing glacier ice
Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Glaciology
Glacier flow modulates sea level and is governed by the viscous deformation of ice. Multiple molecular-scale mechanisms facilitate viscous deformation, but it remains unclear how each contributes to glacier-scale deformation and how to represent them in ice-flow models. Here, we present a model of ice deformation that unifies existing estimates of the viscous parameters and provides a framework [...]