Preprints
There are 5726 Preprints listed.
Seasonality in Arctic Warming Driven By Sea Ice Effective Heat Capacity
Published: 2021-08-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Arctic surface warming under greenhouse gas forcing peaks in early winter and reaches its minimum during summer in both observations and model projections. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain this seasonal asymmetry, but disentangling these processes remains a challenge in the interpretation of general circulation model (GCM) experiments. To isolate these mechanisms, we use an idealized [...]
Irreducible Southern Ocean State Uncertainty due to Global Ocean Initial Conditions
Published: 2021-08-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
How do ocean initial conditions impact historical and future climate projections in Earth system models? To answer this question, we use the 50-member Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) large ensemble, in which individual ensemble members are initialized using a strategic combination of different oceanic initial states and different atmospheric perturbations. We show that global ocean heat [...]
Post-LGM glacial retreat and Early Holocene monsoon intensification drives aggradation in the interiors of the Kashmir Himalaya
Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Understanding the response of glaciated catchments to climate change is crucial for assessing sediment transport from the high-elevation, semi-arid sectors in the Himalaya. The fluvioglacial sediments stored in the semi-arid Padder valley in the Kashmir Himalaya record valley aggradation during ~20 -10 ka. We relate the initial stage of valley aggradation to increased sediment supply from the [...]
Dynamic Compressive Strength and Fragmentation in Sedimentary and Metamorphic Rocks
Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Mechanics of Materials, Tectonics and Structure
Brittle deformation at high strain rates results in intense fragmentation and rock pulverisation. For rocks, the critical strain rate at which this behaviour occurs is ~10^2 s-1. The mechanical properties of rocks at these strain rates can also be very different from their quasi-static properties. Deformation of rocks at these strain rates is uncommon in nature but can occur during fault rupture, [...]
Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach
Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO [...]
Transport and Fate of All-Time Released Plastics in the Global Ocean
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences
Mismanaged plastics accumulate in oceans and threaten marine life. About 40 million tonnes of plastics have reached the oceans, where their fate remains unclear. To track the sources, sinks, sizes, and age of all-time released plastics, we developed a new mechanistic model and synthesized decades of measurements. We find that Asian plastics are the largest contributor (76%) to marine plastics by [...]
The role of sediment subduction and buoyancy on subduction dynamics and geometry
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subducted sediments are thought to lubricate the subduction interface and promote faster plate speeds. However, global observations are not clear-cut on the relationship between the amount of sediments and plate motion. Sediments are also thought to influence slab dip, but variations in subduction geometry depend on multiple factors. Here we use 2D thermomechanical models to explore how sediments [...]
The early diversification of ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii): hypotheses, challenges and future prospects
Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Paleobiology, Paleontology
Actinopterygii are the most speciose living vertebrate clade, and study of fossil members during their Palaeozoic rise to dominance has a long history of descriptive work. Although research interest into Palaeozoic actinopterygians has increased in recent years, broader patterns of diversity and diversity dynamics remain critically understudied. Past studies have investigated macroevolutionary [...]
Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using process-guided deep learning and data assimilation
Published: 2021-08-13
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Hydrology, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management
Near-term forecasts of environmental outcomes can inform real-time decision making. Data assimilation modeling techniques can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time data streams, where the difference between model predictions and observations can be used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided deep learning and data [...]
Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Glaciology
Accurate representation of the viscous flow of ice is fundamental to understanding glacier dynamics and projecting sea-level rise. Ice viscosity is often described by a simple but largely untested and uncalibrated constitutive relation, Glen’s Flow Law, wherein the rate of deformation is proportional to stress raised to the power n. The value n = 3 is commonly prescribed in ice-flow models, [...]
Melting conditions and mantle source composition from probabilistic joint inversion of major and rare earth element concentrations
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The chemical composition of erupted basalts provides a record of the thermo-chemical state of their source region and the melting conditions that lead to their formation. Here we present the first probabilistic inversion framework capable of inverting both trace and major element data of mafic volcanic rocks to constrain mantle potential temperature, depth of melting, and major and trace element [...]
Reflection Seismic Thermometry
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology
The North Viking Graben (NVG) is part of the mature North Sea Basin petroleum province and designated as a major carbon storage basin for NW Europe. It has been extensively drilled over five decades with an abundance of well and seismic data in the public domain. As such it serves as an excellent setting to demonstrate the efficacy of a reflection seismic data led approach to predicting [...]
Systematic calculation of finite-time mixed singular vectors and characterization of error growth for persistent coherent atmospheric disturbances over Eurasia
Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Singular vectors (SVs) have long been employed in the initialization of ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) in order to capture the structural organization and growth rates of those perturbations or “errors” associated with initial condition errors and instability processes of the large scale flow. Due to their (super) exponential growth rates and spatial scales, initial SVs are typically [...]
Storage, evolution, and mixing in basaltic eruptions from around the Okataina Volcanic Centre, Taupō Volcanic Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand
Published: 2021-08-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Volcanic Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand. Although best known for its high rates of explosive rhyolitic volcanism, there are several examples of basaltic to basaltic-andesite contributions to OVC eruptions. These range from minor involvement of basalt in rhyolitic eruptions to the exclusively basaltic 1886 C.E. plinian eruption of Tarawera. To explore the basaltic component supplying this dominantly [...]
A strontium isoscape of Italy for provenance studies
Published: 2021-08-06
Subjects: Geochemistry
We present a novel database of environmental and geological 87Sr/86Sr values (n = 1920) from Italy, using literature data and newly analysed samples, for provenance purposes. We collected both bioavailable and non-bioavailable (i.e. rocks and bulk soils) data to attain a broader view of the Sr isotope variability of the Italian peninsula. These data were used to build isotope variability maps, [...]