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Preprints

There are 5726 Preprints listed.

Seasonality in Arctic Warming Driven By Sea Ice Effective Heat Capacity

Lily Caroline Hahn, Kyle C. Armour, David S. Battisti, et al.

Published: 2021-08-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Arctic surface warming under greenhouse gas forcing peaks in early winter and reaches its minimum during summer in both observations and model projections. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain this seasonal asymmetry, but disentangling these processes remains a challenge in the interpretation of general circulation model (GCM) experiments. To isolate these mechanisms, we use an idealized [...]

Irreducible Southern Ocean State Uncertainty due to Global Ocean Initial Conditions

Hansi Alice Singh, Naomi Goldenson, John Fyfe, et al.

Published: 2021-08-17
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

How do ocean initial conditions impact historical and future climate projections in Earth system models? To answer this question, we use the 50-member Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) large ensemble, in which individual ensemble members are initialized using a strategic combination of different oceanic initial states and different atmospheric perturbations. We show that global ocean heat [...]

Post-LGM glacial retreat and Early Holocene monsoon intensification drives aggradation in the interiors of the Kashmir Himalaya

Saptarshi Dey, Naveen Chauhan, Pritha Chakravarti, et al.

Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences

Understanding the response of glaciated catchments to climate change is crucial for assessing sediment transport from the high-elevation, semi-arid sectors in the Himalaya. The fluvioglacial sediments stored in the semi-arid Padder valley in the Kashmir Himalaya record valley aggradation during ~20 -10 ka. We relate the initial stage of valley aggradation to increased sediment supply from the [...]

Dynamic Compressive Strength and Fragmentation in Sedimentary and Metamorphic Rocks

Auriol S. P. Rae, Thomas Kenkmann, Vivek Padmanabha, et al.

Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Mechanics of Materials, Tectonics and Structure

Brittle deformation at high strain rates results in intense fragmentation and rock pulverisation. For rocks, the critical strain rate at which this behaviour occurs is ~10^2 s-1. The mechanical properties of rocks at these strain rates can also be very different from their quasi-static properties. Deformation of rocks at these strain rates is uncommon in nature but can occur during fault rupture, [...]

Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Ferio Brahmana, Katarina Evelyn Permata Herho, et al.

Published: 2021-08-15
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO [...]

Transport and Fate of All-Time Released Plastics in the Global Ocean

Peipei Wu, Ruochong Xu, Xuantong Wang, et al.

Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences

Mismanaged plastics accumulate in oceans and threaten marine life. About 40 million tonnes of plastics have reached the oceans, where their fate remains unclear. To track the sources, sinks, sizes, and age of all-time released plastics, we developed a new mechanistic model and synthesized decades of measurements. We find that Asian plastics are the largest contributor (76%) to marine plastics by [...]

The role of sediment subduction and buoyancy on subduction dynamics and geometry

Silvia Brizzi, Thorsten W. Becker, Claudio Faccenna, et al.

Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Subducted sediments are thought to lubricate the subduction interface and promote faster plate speeds. However, global observations are not clear-cut on the relationship between the amount of sediments and plate motion. Sediments are also thought to influence slab dip, but variations in subduction geometry depend on multiple factors. Here we use 2D thermomechanical models to explore how sediments [...]

The early diversification of ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii): hypotheses, challenges and future prospects

Struan Henderson, Emma M Dunne, Sophie A. Fasey, et al.

Published: 2021-08-14
Subjects: Paleobiology, Paleontology

Actinopterygii are the most speciose living vertebrate clade, and study of fossil members during their Palaeozoic rise to dominance has a long history of descriptive work. Although research interest into Palaeozoic actinopterygians has increased in recent years, broader patterns of diversity and diversity dynamics remain critically understudied. Past studies have investigated macroevolutionary [...]

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using process-guided deep learning and data assimilation

Jacob Zwart, Samantha Kay Oliver, William David Watkins, et al.

Published: 2021-08-13
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Hydrology, Statistics and Probability, Water Resource Management

Near-term forecasts of environmental outcomes can inform real-time decision making. Data assimilation modeling techniques can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time data streams, where the difference between model predictions and observations can be used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided deep learning and data [...]

Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed

Joanna Millstein, Brent Minchew, Samuel S Pegler

Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Glaciology

Accurate representation of the viscous flow of ice is fundamental to understanding glacier dynamics and projecting sea-level rise. Ice viscosity is often described by a simple but largely untested and uncalibrated constitutive relation, Glen’s Flow Law, wherein the rate of deformation is proportional to stress raised to the power n. The value n = 3 is commonly prescribed in ice-flow models, [...]

Melting conditions and mantle source composition from probabilistic joint inversion of major and rare earth element concentrations

Benat Oliveira, Juan Carlos Afonso, Marthe Klöcking

Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The chemical composition of erupted basalts provides a record of the thermo-chemical state of their source region and the melting conditions that lead to their formation. Here we present the first probabilistic inversion framework capable of inverting both trace and major element data of mafic volcanic rocks to constrain mantle potential temperature, depth of melting, and major and trace element [...]

Reflection Seismic Thermometry

Arka Dyuti Sarkar, Mads Huuse

Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology

The North Viking Graben (NVG) is part of the mature North Sea Basin petroleum province and designated as a major carbon storage basin for NW Europe. It has been extensively drilled over five decades with an abundance of well and seismic data in the public domain. As such it serves as an excellent setting to demonstrate the efficacy of a reflection seismic data led approach to predicting [...]

Systematic calculation of finite-time mixed singular vectors and characterization of error growth for persistent coherent atmospheric disturbances over Eurasia

Courtney Quinn, Terence J. O'Kane, Dylan Harries

Published: 2021-08-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Singular vectors (SVs) have long been employed in the initialization of ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) in order to capture the structural organization and growth rates of those perturbations or “errors” associated with initial condition errors and instability processes of the large scale flow. Due to their (super) exponential growth rates and spatial scales, initial SVs are typically [...]

Storage, evolution, and mixing in basaltic eruptions from around the Okataina Volcanic Centre, Taupō Volcanic Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

Ery Catherine Hughes, Sally Law, Geoff Kilgour, et al.

Published: 2021-08-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Volcanic Zone, Aotearoa New Zealand. Although best known for its high rates of explosive rhyolitic volcanism, there are several examples of basaltic to basaltic-andesite contributions to OVC eruptions. These range from minor involvement of basalt in rhyolitic eruptions to the exclusively basaltic 1886 C.E. plinian eruption of Tarawera. To explore the basaltic component supplying this dominantly [...]

A strontium isoscape of Italy for provenance studies

Federico Lugli, Anna Cipriani, Luigi Bruno, et al.

Published: 2021-08-06
Subjects: Geochemistry

We present a novel database of environmental and geological 87Sr/86Sr values (n = 1920) from Italy, using literature data and newly analysed samples, for provenance purposes. We collected both bioavailable and non-bioavailable (i.e. rocks and bulk soils) data to attain a broader view of the Sr isotope variability of the Italian peninsula. These data were used to build isotope variability maps, [...]

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