Preprints
There are 6209 Preprints listed.
Desert dust exerts a substantial longwave radiative forcing missing from climate models
Published: 2025-07-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Historical increases in desert dust have affected climate by perturbing Earth’s energy balance, including through interactions with longwave radiation that remain poorly quantified. Here, we use a data-driven analytical model to estimate the global dust longwave direct radiative effect (DRE). Our results align with observational estimates of longwave radiative effects, constraining the [...]
Ice dynamic and hydrological response to ice-dammed lake drainages at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland
Published: 2025-07-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ice-marginal lakes are increasingly common around Greenland and are important for modulating glacier runoff and dynamics. This study investigates the evolution of a ~3 km2 and up to ~100 m deep ice-dammed lake at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. Satellite observations between 1987 and 2024, and field observations of a 2023 drainage using passive seismics, GNSS and time-lapse imagery reveal that [...]
Comments on “Osmosis Drives Explosions and Methane Release in Siberian Permafrost” by Morgado et al. 2024
Published: 2025-07-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences
This commentary addresses the model proposed by Morgado et al. (2024) in their paper, “Osmosis Drives Explosions and Methane Release in Siberian Permafrost.” The model explores the role of osmotic pressures in explaining the formation of gas escape craters in the Western Siberian permafrost. While it presents a novel perspective on permafrost dynamics under climate change, three significant [...]
A Constraint-Convergent Framework for Tornado Formation (the ARCH Equation)
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Despite significant advances in meteorological observation and modeling, the precise prediction of tornado occurrence remains a persistent challenge. Traditional forecasting approaches often rely on additive or probabilistic frameworks, assuming that the likelihood of a tornado increases as favorable parameters accumulate. However, many environments that appear highly conducive to tornadoes fail [...]
Artificial Intelligence in Climate Science: A State-of-the-Art Review (2020–2025)
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and posing complex challenges to human and natural systems. In parallel, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) offer new tools to tackle climate science problems. AI can analyze vast climate datasets, improve forecasts, and optimize climate solutions at scales and speeds beyond traditional methods. For [...]
Statistical rock physics inversion for assessing source rock properties from seismic signatures: an application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Quantifying petrophysical properties and potentials of source rocks is important for subsurface modeling and characterization. However, predicting these properties using seismic signatures and well-log information is a high-dimensional, nonlinear inverse problem, and is subject to uncertainty due to data ambiguities. In this study, a statistical rock physics inversion workflow is proposed to [...]
Screening Global Solar and Wind Energy Investment Potential Accounting for Drought and Surplus
Published: 2025-07-14
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability
Climate-induced variability of solar and wind energy impacts renewable electricity scaling. Long duration renewable energy droughts, i.e., extended periods of renewable supply deficits, lead to contract penalties or use of thermo-electric sources, while long duration surpluses result in curtailment or in low energy prices and revenue. We present the first global assessment of the implied [...]
Volcano-tectonic controls on magmatic evolution at Campi Flegrei, Italy: insights from thermodynamic modelling
Published: 2025-07-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, southern Italy) is one of the most hazardous volcanoes on Earth, having produced more than 70 eruptions in the past 15 kyr, and currently showing significant signs of unrest within a densely populated part of Europe. Post-15 ka eruptions span a range of eruptive styles and compositions, which broadly correlate with the spatial and structural location of vents within [...]
Flux Modulated Magmatic Architecture in Continental Magmatic Arcs
Published: 2025-07-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Petrochronology of the magmatic reservoir that underpinned the Chaxas Volcanic Complex for the duration of its 8.59 – 1.24 Ma lifecycle reveals that magmatic architecture can be regulated by magmatic flux. Modulation of the magmatic reservoir was controlled via two distinct flux regimes during the Pre-Chaxas and Chaxas Complex stages of the Chaxas Volcanic Complex, emphasizing the dynamic nature [...]
Microbe-vegetation-nutrient interactions affect long-term carbon accumulation in a northern peatland
Published: 2025-07-13
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Recommendations for improving the design, amenity and performance of privately owned, small-scale biobasins
Published: 2025-07-13
Subjects: Engineering, Life Sciences
Due to spatial constraints in cities, it is increasingly challenging to integrate appropriate water sensitive urban design (WSUD) solutions. There has been a shift from larger, precinct-scale bioretention systems owned by local governments to smaller scale ‘biobasins’ managed by private landholders. This shift has brought about unique challenges in regulation, design, maintenance, and [...]
A Critical Review of Life Cycle Assessment in Shrimp Aquaculture: Uncovering Methodological Dominance and Analytical Blind Spots
Published: 2025-07-12
Subjects: Life Sciences
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is increasingly used to evaluate the environmental impacts of shrimp aquaculture, a rapidly expanding global food sector. However, existing shrimp LCA studies report widely divergent results, varying by more than fiftyfold across key impact categories. This systematic review identified 16 peer-reviewed shrimp LCAs and investigates the reasons for these discrepancies, [...]
Thermal analysis of meso-scale high-temperature Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) systems with varying operational cycles
Published: 2025-07-12
Subjects: Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Other Mechanical Engineering
High temperature and short-term subsurface heat storage using BTES is a promising option and an emerging technology for increasing the fraction of renewable energy in the heat sector and supplying stored heat at high and directly usable temperatures. Investigation of thermal interactions of multiple BHEs employed for high-temperature cyclic storage operations is required to understand the system [...]
Ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers quantify the climate sensitivity of highland shrubification in Iceland
Published: 2025-07-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Future changes in high latitude shrubification are expected to lead to changes in ecosystem structure and positive climate feedbacks, but the rates and elevational range of shrubification are still poorly constrained. Using a sediment record from a small lake in Iceland’s eastern highlands (422 m asl), we merge a sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) record of Betula with mean summer lake temperature [...]
Integrated Disaster Nursing Response for Public Healthcare Settings in Pakistan: A Sequential Mixed Method Approach Study Protocol
Published: 2025-07-11
Subjects: Public Health
Abstract Background Natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes pose significant threats to human lives and infrastructure, particularly in low-lying regions of Pakistan. Among the most vulnerable areas are Sanghar and Dadu in the Sindh province, which experience recurrent flooding. These disasters often overwhelm healthcare systems and underscore the urgent need for adequately [...]