Preprints
There are 6226 Preprints listed.
Impacts of zonal SST gradients on subtropical highs and implications for early season tropical cyclone landfall frequency
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal landfall probability is challenging to forecast because of the limited seasonal predictability of steering flow patterns. Past studies mainly focus on the large-scale ocean and atmospheric conditions that lead to changes in seasonal tropical cyclone genesis frequency in a given basin, but less attention has focused on seasonal landfall probability inherent to [...]
Navigating Rising Waters: Empowering Shunganunga Creek Floodplain Communities through Protection Motivation Theory
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Studies, Meteorology, Social and Behavioral Sciences
In communities like those near Topeka’s Shunganunga Creek, where flooding is a frequent and expected part of life, risk communication must adapt to meet the unique circumstances of residents. To understand how people in this floodplain perceive risk and respond to flood warnings, we interviewed 11 residents, guided by principles from Protection Motivation Theory. Participants, including long-time [...]
Only half of the calories produced on croplands are available for human consumption
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Agriculture, Sustainability
Managing limited agricultural land to feed a growing population with changing diets requires understanding and managing tradeoffs associated with how crops are utilized. Here, we quantify the impact of how 50 crops are used for food, livestock feed, biofuels, and other non-food uses on available calories from 2010 to 2020. We find that, although total calorie production increased by 23.9% from [...]
Shear localization as a key control on mass-transport complexes seal integrity: insights from geophysical datasets
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Sedimentology
Mass-transport complexes (MTCs), existing in all sedimentary basins worldwide, can serve as effective seals for hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide storage due to shear-induced overcompaction. However, localized seal failure is occasionally observed in specific part of the MTCs, leading to hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide leakage and posing potential threats to seabed stability. Due to the scarcity of [...]
Assessing uncertainty of source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling – Application to Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]
From Maps to Mandates: Multitemporal Vegetation Cover Analysis as a Tool to Evaluate Environmental Judicial Decisions
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Biodiversity, Forest Management, Life Sciences, Research Methods in Life Sciences
This study examines the use of multitemporal vegetation cover analysis as a tool to assess the ecological effectiveness of judicial decisions that recognize the rights of nature, using Colombia’s 2016 T-622 decision on the Atrato River as a case study. Using satellite data from MapBiomas and generalized additive models (GAMs), we evaluated changes in ten types of vegetation cover between 2006 and [...]
Multilingual Community Visualizations (MCV): A GIS Dashboard for Linguistic Research and NWS Operations
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The NWS is actively expanding its multilingual outreach to better serve the 68.8 million U.S. individuals who speak a language other than English at home. Among these, 26.3 million individuals with Limited English Proficiency (LEP) are of particular concern, as they often rely entirely on translated forecasts to make life-saving decisions. Yet identifying where these populations are concentrated [...]
Machine learning estimates for G20 subnational GHG emissions from 2000-2020 using self-reported emissions data
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Reliable, comparable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data at the subnational level remain scarce, despite growing expectations for cities and regions to lead on climate action. Inconsistent reporting, methodological variation, and limited coverage of self-reported inventories hinder efforts to track progress and guide mitigation opportunities. To address these challenges, we develop a machine [...]
Data Assimilation in Machine-Learned Reduced-order Model of Chaotic Earthquake Sequences
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Realistic models of earthquake sequences can be simulated by assuming faults governed by rate-and-state friction embedded in an elastic medium. Exploring the possibility of using such models for earthquake forecasting is challenging due to the difficulty of integrating Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models with sparse, low-resolution observational data. This paper presents a [...]
A new method of assessing Climate Sensitivity.
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Abstract— The IPCC regards carbon dioxide as the most relevant driver of climate warming and their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) refines this to a likely range of 2.5°C to 4.0°C and a very likely range of 2.0°C to 5.0°C for climate sensitivity to a doubling of present levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since this is a very large range the need exists to find a method to better quantify climate [...]
Tephra fallout and associated deposits (Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 3rd edition, book chapter)
Published: 2025-07-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The lifecycle of volcanic fall deposits begins with explosive fragmentation, continues as particles rise through the atmosphere, and culminates with sedimentation on the ground. This chapter explores how fall deposits can reveal the unique eruption and transport processes that shaped them. While we can directly observe modern eruptions to understand their dynamics, unobserved volcanic events are [...]
A Search for Life in the Universe Advances Life on Earth
Published: 2025-07-21
Subjects: Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Sciences
Astrobiology, while traditionally focused on understanding the origin of life on Earth and the potential for life elsewhere, offers powerful tools and insights for addressing urgent challenges on our planet. This perspective, written by early career researchers, calls for a deliberate integration of astrobiological research with applied sciences in environmental engineering, biotechnology, and [...]
Impact of oxygen release from bentonite on microbial activity, mineralogy, and steel corrosion
Published: 2025-07-19
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Geochemistry
Deep geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive waste rely partly on the integrity of canisters and on the inhibition of microbial growth by the bentonite barrier for the effective isolation of the waste from the environment. Canister integrity can be compromised by the activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and by abiotic corrosion. Unexpected aerobic microbial growth and SRB [...]
Holocene relative sea-level changes from the Atlantic coast of South America
Published: 2025-07-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology
Holocene sea-level changes along the Atlantic coast of South America reflect a complex interplay between glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), regional tectonics, and local sedimentary processes. However, the uneven spatial and temporal resolution of existing sea-level data has hindered regional-scale assessments. Here, we compile and standardize 1108 relative sea-level (RSL) data points from [...]
Existence of Charnockites in Hellas Basin, Mars
Published: 2025-07-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Charnockite, an orthopyroxene-bearing granitic rock, is formed under high-temperature and high-pressure environments. Charnockite exhibits spectral characteristics similar to mafic rocks in the VNIR region and shows low emissivity at ~ 8.5 µm due to its high quartz content in the TIR region. The association of charnockite with the Anorthosite-Mangerite-Charnockite-Granite suite make it a suitable [...]