Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Antarctic elevation drives hemispheric asymmetry in polar lapse-rate climatology and feedback
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The lapse-rate feedback is the dominant driver of stronger warming in the Arctic than the Antarctic in simulations with increased CO2. While Antarctic surface elevation has been implicated in promoting a weaker Antarctic lapse-rate feedback, the mechanisms in which elevation impacts the lapse-rate feedback are still unclear. Here we suggest that weaker Antarctic warming under CO2 forcing stems [...]
Is Net Zero by 2050 Possible?
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Achieving Net Zero 2050 does not assure complying with a global warming temperature ceiling. The U.S. might achieve NZ(2050); the world almost certainly will not. For the U.S. to achieve NZ(2050) requires a massive transition of the economy, which is extremely unlikely.
Sensing earth and environment dynamics by telecommunication fiber-optic sensors: An urban experiment in Pennsylvania USA
Published: 2020-06-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Continuous seismic monitoring of the Earths near surface (top 100 meters), especially with improving the resolution and extent of data both in space and time, would yield more accurate insights about the effect of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding or drought) and climate change on the Earths surface and subsurface systems. However, continuous long-term seismic monitoring, especially in urban [...]
The social-ecological dimensions of changing global freshwater availability
Published: 2020-06-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying physical water security at the global scale remains hampered by a lack of systematically produced observational data. Here we combine the observed trends in global freshwater availability from the recently completed Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission1 with more than a dozen other global datasets and provide the missing observational basis to numerous existing [...]
Suitability Analysis of Remote Sensing Techniques for Shoreline Extraction of Global River Deltas
Published: 2020-06-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
High frequency flooding, sea level rise and changes to riverine sediment fluxes have threatened the habitable land area of river deltas, where close to half a billion people live, globally. Understanding shoreline positions is important for overall sustainable planning of deltaic communities and delta evolution predictive modeling. However, a gap in literature is recognized where there is a) no [...]
Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin
Published: 2019-02-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies, Geography, Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Other Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science
The paper focuses on analysis of Central Asian hydro-energetic system and water usage in Tian Shan region. Tian Shan system is an important water resource in Central Asia: river waters are intensely taken for hydropower energy, urban systems, irrigation. But geopolitics in Tian Shan is difficult: it crosses five densely populated countries. The problem consists in water delivery between countries [...]
Architecture and controls of thick, intensely bioturbated, storm-influenced shallow-marine successions: an example from the Jurassic Neuquén Basin (Argentina)
Published: 2020-06-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
Thick (>100 m-thick), highly bioturbated storm-influenced shallow-marine deposits are not frequent in the stratigraphic record, but they tend to be unusually common in aggradational to retrogradational successions. Individual storm-event beds have typically low preservation in these successions, yet depositional settings are characterized on the basis of storms processes. We present a [...]
Seismic constraints on rock damaging in a failing mountain peak: the Hochvogel, Allgäu
Published: 2020-06-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large rock slope failures play a pivotal role in long-term landscape evolution and are a major concern in land use planning and hazard aspects. While the failure phase and the time immediately prior to failure are increasingly well studied, the nature of the preparation phase remains enigmatic. This knowledge gap is due, to a large degree, to difficulties associated with instrumenting high [...]
A novel rules-based shoreface translation model for predicting future coastal change: ShoreTrans
Published: 2020-06-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Predicting change to global shorelines presents an increasing challenge as sea-level rise (SLR) accelerates. Many shoreline prediction models use variations of the ‘Bruun-rule’, failing to account for relevant processes and morphologic complexity. To address this, we introduce a simple rules-based model (ShoreTrans) designed for complex, real-world profiles that predicts change across a wide [...]
Eruptive dynamics in Plinian silicic eruptions
Published: 2020-06-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Plinian eruptions are characterized by high magma discharge rates and pyroclastic material containing extraordinary large numbers of bubbles. Upon ascent to the surface magma decompresses and volatiles become supersaturated, causing bubbles to nucleate with a rate dependent on the degree of supersaturation. Thus, the conventional view is that the number of bubbles nucleating within the erupting [...]
Carbon fractions in the world’s dead wood
Published: 2020-06-05
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Alarming increases in tree mortality due to environmental change suggest that contributions of dead wood to global carbon (C) cycles are rapidly increasing 1-3, with dead wood C flux estimates already approximating total annual anthropogenic C emissions 4. Quantifying C in dead wood critically depends on accurate estimates of dead wood C fractions (CFs) to convert dead woody biomass into C. Most [...]
Sediment redox dynamics in an oligotrophic deep-water lake in Tierra del Fuego: insights from Fe isotopes
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Fe speciation and Fe isotopes have been widely used to reconstruct past basin dynamics and water redox conditions. However, sedimentation and early diagenesis of such proxies eventually alter any primary climate signal. In this work, we disentangled the processes occurring at the redox front below the sediment-water interface of a ventilated deep-water lake (Lago Fagnano, Argentina/Chile). A [...]
Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves
Published: 2020-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Reliable projections of these extremes are pressingly needed for local actions in the context of extreme event preparedness and mitigation. Such information, however, is not available because current multi-model projections largely lack a representation of urban areas. Here, we use a newly-developed urban climate emulator [...]
Atmospheric thermal convection and strong chaotic fluctuations of global temperature on Earth and on Mars
Published: 2020-06-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
It is shown that the atmospheric thermal (buoyancy driven) convection plays the main role in generation of the strong chaotic fluctuations of the global temperature through the Kolmogorov-Bolgiano-Obukhov mechanism (in the frames of the distributed chaos approach). It is valid for the planets with substantial atmosphere such as the Earth and Mars. Direct numerical simulations, the Berkeley Earth [...]
Heat does not physically flow in the ways assumed by greenhouse-warming theory
Published: 2020-06-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Heat is currently defined as an amount of thermal energy flowing each second per unit area. Temperature is assumed to result from the net amount of heat flowing—the sum of all radiative forcings. Yet direct and unambiguous observations of Nature show that macroscopic temperature of solid matter results from a very broad spectrum of sub-microscopic oscillations of all the bonds holding matter [...]